Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 171530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
930 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Issued at 928 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Based on current radar trends and latest model data, have adjusted
pops through this evening. Right rear quadrant of jet is causing
isolated thunderstorms this morning over the southeast half of
the area. After that models are slowing down the arrival of pops
this afternoon. Surface focus is also further west. So pulled the
pops back further west.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Today-tonight...a small pocket of 700-500mb moisture across the far
south and southwest portions of the area early this morning is
expected to slide east (along and south of the interstate) through
noon and dissipate by mid afternoon. Another batch of moisture looks
to reach far eastern Colorado from the west and northwest very late
in the day as a sfc trough approaches. We may see isolated
thunderstorms as a result. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
possible tonight as the weather disturbance and moisture move across
the area. High temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s with low
temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...dry weather expected as north to northeast
winds bring drier air into the area during the day. Winds veer
around to the south/southwest overnight under perhaps a few mid
level clouds. 850mb temperatures warm about 0 to 3F across the area
supporting mid 80s to low 90s once again. Low temperatures in the
mid 50s to low 60s.

Friday-Friday night...starting to see signs of monsoonal moisture
return flow per 700-500mb moisture around a building upper level
high over Texas. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase in the mid to
late afternoon generally along and east of the CO/KS border and
continue into the evening before nearly exiting the area by sunrise
Saturday morning. 850mb temperatures warm another 3F to 7F across
the area supporting high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s,
possibly a few degrees higher. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to
upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

At the start of the extended the models show the region under the
influence of upper level southwesterly wind flow. On the surface, a
thermal trough over the west coast, a frontal boundary over the
northern Plains and high pressure over the mid-west.

A surface trough looks to pass over the local area during the day
Sunday and allow for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may become severe. On Monday, looks like a low may develop
over the local area. If this holds, severe storms are possible in
the afternoon.

By Tuesday, the upper level flow will become more westerly and then
northwesterly as a longwave trough passes over southern Canada and
northern U.S. and makes way for an upper level ridge to build over
the Rockies and the western Plains. At the same time, the surface
high pressure, over the midwest, will move towards the eastern
seaboard and allow the surface boundary to move south of our local
area. This will produce showers and thunderstorms along the
boundary, as it passes. Then expect dry conditions on Wednesday and
Thursday with slightly below normal high temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. A light
southwest wind at taf issuance will increase into the 10-15kt
range with some higher gusts from 18z-22z. After 00z winds slowly
decrease back under 10kts from the southwest. As far as
precipitation chances, terminal could see a shower/thunderstorm
around 16z then again in the the 23z-04z timeframe. Confidence too
low to include any mention in taf at this time given uncertainty
regarding coverage of storms.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. A light west
wind at taf issuance will back to the southwest under 10kts after
18z and continue through 00z. After 01z a light south to
southwest wind expected. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
possible at the terminal in the 02z-06z timeframe.




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