Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 202330
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
530 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS WERE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED AROUND
BURLINGTON...COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S. ENHANCED/TOWERING CU HAS BEEN NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ALONG
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE WICHITA/GREELEY
COUNTY KANSAS LINE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE TROUGH AXIS WAS
LOCATED FROM CULBERTSON...NEBRASKA TO BREWSTER TO WESKAN KANSAS TO
GENOA COLORADO SO SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ALONG AND EAST
OF THIS TROUGH. BASED ON LATEST MESOANALYSIS...SBCAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG...LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS
WOULD INDICATE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. LCLS OF 2000-2500 M AGL WOULD
INDICATE A NON-TORNADIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...SURFACE VORTICITY AND
LOW LEVEL CAPE MAY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE A LANDSPOUT TORNADO ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IF A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY. HI-RES
MODELS INDICATE THE EVOLUTION OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 LATER THIS EVENING SO HAVE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENING IN THESE LOCATIONS.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH THIS
EVENING. WITH THESE STORM MOVEMENTS AND BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
REMAINING TO THE SOUTHEAST...THINKING THAT A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT DEVELOP THIS EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
STILL LIKELY WITH PWATS 1.1-1.3 INCHES BUT THE FASTER STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD MINIMIZE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE EXITED
BY THAT TIME.

FOR TOMORROW...TROUGH AXIS SLIDES FURTHER EAST DURING THE MORNING.
NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND
THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN AND MINIMIZES
INSTABILITY BEHIND THE TROUGH. THINKING THAT SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH WOULD LIMIT CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE
FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO MARIENTHAL KANSAS. A STORM OR TWO COULD
BECOME SEVERE AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.  THIS WILL ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.  700-500MB MIXING RATIOS ARE AROUND
6G/KG WHICH IS MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO.  MODELS INDICATE 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS OVER YUMA COUNTY
AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  WITH THIS IN
MIND AM THINKING RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WHEN THE LIFT IS STRONGEST.  LIFT DECLINES TOWARD SUNRISE SO WILL
HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES DECLINING AS A RESULT.

FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  BY
MID MORNING LIFT OVER THE FRONT INCREASES...WITH LIFT INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
DURING THE AFTERNOON A 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE AREA...BOTH OF WHICH
SHOULD HELP INCREASE LIFT ALONG THE FRONT.  STORM MOTION WILL BE TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15-20 MPH NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
THIS MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR STORM
TRAINING SO WILL HAVE A MENTION OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST.  AM THINKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORM TRAINING WILL BE
OVER THE EAST 1/3 OR SO BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30KTS AND 0-1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1300J/KG.  HOWEVER CIHN WILL BE NEAR 50J/KG
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL LIMIT SEVERE STORM COVERAGE.

FRIDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA
WITH STORM TRAINING ALONG THE FRONT STILL VERY LIKELY.  LIFT ALONG
THE FRONT DECLINES BY MIDNIGHT SO WILL HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES DECLINE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY THAT TIME.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE AS NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA...AND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE AREA.  A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY PUSHING THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY BACK SOUTH.  BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE
FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THEN
BE PUSHED BACK SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TWO STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE MVFR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD AND KMCK
THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM NEAR KMCK IN THE
AFTERNOON AS STORMS FIRE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS



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