Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 261915
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1215 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BASED ON AN
ANALYSIS OF FORECAST RAP SOUNDINGS...SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE A LAYER OF DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS BY INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AND MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF/SNOW GRIDS. EARLIER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH
ICY ROADS SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE AS SOME SUN HAS REACHED THE
GROUND AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A BAND OF CLOUDS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
IS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES ANTICIPATE THE
SNOWFALL TO DISSIPATE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
AXIS. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE COMPLETELY WEST OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

TODAY THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BREAKUP AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA TODAY BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE GENERALLY TOO
LARGE FOR ANY PRECIP. TO BE GENERATED FROM THE MEAGER LIFT SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION THAT FOLLOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE
COOLED HIGHS TODAY AS A RESULT.

TONIGHT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER DEW POINTS THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WIND FORECASTS ARE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND FROPA WILL LIKELY BE DRY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. FINALLY...ON WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND EMERGE
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. TIMING
AND AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM STILL VERY UNCERTAIN WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS WITH SOME SNOW IS MOVING TOWARDS KGLD AT
1700Z. MVFR STRATUS HAS REACHED TAF SITE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW. CEILINGS AT KGLD SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 2100Z. CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000 FT REACHES KMCK THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NO SNOW ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WINDS WEAKEN TODAY AND AFTER A
PERIOD OF LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING...WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST AT
KGLD AND SOUTH AT KMCK AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. SOUTH
WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH


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