Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 301953
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATE TO THE ORIGINAL TAFS...DUE TO SMOKE BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...BOTH SITES ARE SEEING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
TIME KGLD IS MVFR AND KMCK IS VFR. SO WILL HAVE THIS RESTRICTION
UNTIL 02-03Z.

SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL DECREASE AND
STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM 09Z TO 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER


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