Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 152026
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
126 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 124 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

Overview: Main concern remains with the winter storm impacting the
region this afternoon, tonight, and into Monday. Freezing rain this
afternoon will transition first to sleet, then to snow from west to
east this evening. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times. Recent
guidance has been reducing the snowfall totals with each iteration
due to the persistent eastward track of the low, which is now moving
into southwest Texas and southeastern New Mexico. The eastward jog
will cause the focus of snowfall to shift eastward. We still expect
a band of heavy snow to set up from south-southwest to north-
northeast tonight and Monday morning. Those locations within the
heavier band will generally see 3 to 5 inches of snow with the
potential of up to 7 inches in isolated locations. Due to the slower
movement of this system, light snow could linger into Monday
afternoon before moving off to the east and northeast.

Impacts: Power outages and downed trees/limbs are possible this
afternoon and early evening especially in areas where ice
accumulations approach or exceed one quarter of an inch. Winds have
remained relatively light today but are expected to increase as the
low approaches the region overnight and into Monday. Roadways are
already slick this afternoon and driving conditions will continue to
deteriorate this afternoon and evening. Tonight`s concern will
mainly be travel related as heavy snowfall will make for slick
roadways and low visibility at times.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1258 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

For the extended period...the exiting of the storm system from over
the weekend/holiday period...will allow for mid level ridging to
build over the Plains Region. Models do set up a cutoff upper low
into the mix that sets up over the Southern Plains/Rockies midweek.
This system works northeast into the Central Plains region late
Thursday/Thursday night. This low will be followed by subsequent
systems leading into the upcoming weekend.

Models differences for timing and positioning of the forthcoming
systems do crop up in latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF. Trend is for
light precipitation to ensue as these pass by...mostly for the
latter ones towards the upcoming weekend...with qpf on the low side
due to presence of subsidence from ridging. Overall trend thru the
forecast is for warmer...above normal temps(mid 40s to low 50s)thru
the daytime hours...and w/ overnight low temps ranging in the 20s.
Cloud cover will be the main caveat that may inhibit temps for both
daytime/overnight hrs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1029 AM MST Sun Jan 15 2017

For KGLD...conditions will range briefly MVFR down to mainly an
IFR/LIFR mix. Looking for a change in precipitation from more
freezing rain/sleet to snow by 21z-22z this afternoon as colder air
works into the region. This will drop visibility from 3sm down to a
1/2sm to 2sm range. Ceilings to remain below ovc005 thru the
forecast period. Winds...ESE around 5-10kts becoming NNE aft 05z
Monday.

For KMCK...conditions will be a MVFR/IFR mix as visibility ranges
from 5sm down to 1-2sm with a change over to snow around 21z this
afternoon. Ceilings will go from ovc015-025 down to ovc010 or less
by 21z. Winds mainly light/variable thru 14z Monday...then north
around 10kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ Monday for
     KSZ001>003-013-014-027.

     Ice Storm Warning until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Monday for KSZ004-
     015-016-028-029-041-042.

CO...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST Monday for COZ091-092.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM MST Monday for COZ090.

NE...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ Monday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN


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