Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181515

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
915 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

Issued at 912 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

Just completed an update. One change was to slow down the arrival
of precipitation. Per collaboration and latest model/observational
trends, reduced the pops this morning. Higher pops look to not
arrive until this afternoon. Other change was to lower maxes a
little. Looks like we will have stratus blanket most if not all
the area through the day which should cut down on heating.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

The primary short term forecast concern is the possibility of
thunderstorms across the forecast area late this afternoon through
the overnight hours. The potential for severe thunderstorms ranges
from a marginal risk across much of the northwest sections of the
forecast area, to a slight risk across the southeast half of the
forecast area, and a small enhanced risk area across the extreme
southeast portion of the forecast area. The enhanced risk area is
southeast of a line from Scott City to Hill City Kansas. While an
isolated tornado can not be ruled out, the main threats will be
large hail and damaging winds with any storms that become severe.

A strong upper level low pressure system rotates through the
4-corners region this evening with a short wave trough rotating
around the low center expected to lift out across the central high
plains late this afternoon and evening. The main upper low lifts
through the central high plains region on Friday and into eastern
Nebraska and southeast South Dakota by Saturday morning. The
associated surface low deepens over the Texas panhandle region
today, stretches into eastern Kansas by Friday and lifts into
northern Missouri and southern Iowa by Saturday morning.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across southern Kansas and
Oklahoma this afternoon with additional storms developing rapidly
across the region through the late afternoon and evening as the
frontal boundary currently across southern Kansas lifts north as a
warm front.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
forecast area on Friday and Friday evening as the low pressure
system moves across the region.  A marginal to slight risk of severe
storms is expected across the eastern half of the forecast area.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish across the area
from west to east after midnight Friday night.  As precipitation
diminishes, sky cover will also begin to diminish and overnight
temperatures will dip into the middle to upper 30s across the
western half of the forecast area.  With temperatures in the middle
30s across Colorado, there is a slight chance of locations along and
west of the Colorado border area seeing a brief rain and snow mix
after midnight Friday night along with some locations possibly
seeing a light frost.

Expect slightly warmer temperatures and dry conditions as low
pressure moves out of the region and is replaced by higher pressure
on Saturday and Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

At the start of the extended period a shortwave ridge gives way to
broad trough moving across the High Plains and deepening. This will
produce predominantly northwest upper level flow. The end result is
that precipitation will develop, in the form of showers and
thunderstorms, late Sunday afternoon and last well into Tuesday. Can
not say what the severe threat level will be at this time; however,
both days are showing instability over the region and if south or
southeast surface winds move into the region, severe weather is
definitely possible.

Wednesday and Thursday looks to be mostly dry; however, this could
change since there are some model discrepancies.

Temperatures during this period will see highs in lower 60s to
middle 70s while the overnight lows will drop into the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 511 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

IFR conditions due to low ceilings will continue at GLD through
today and into the evening as rain showers spread across the
region and thunderstorms develop after 21Z. Thunderstorms are
expected to continue through 03Z, after which showers will
continue through the overnight hours with conditions becoming LIFR
due to mainly to lower ceilings although a decrease in visibility
is also expected.

MCK will be MVFR through about 17Z. After 17Z, expect showers to
move into the area and conditions to be come IFR. By 21Z,
thunderstorms are expected with IFR conditions continuing through
08Z as showers transition back to just rain showers. After 08Z
expect LIFR conditions due to lower ceilings with some reductions
in visibility also expected.




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