Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 270947
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
347 AM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 344 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016
Main forecast issue is the forecast through tonight. Satellite
showing an amplified and blocky pattern from the Pacific into
eastern North America. Slow moving upper low that brought
significant and hazardous weather to the area yesterday remains
spinning over the western portion of our area.
At jet level...models started out fine. At mid levels...models
having a hard time resolving/starting out with the details of the
complicated upper trough...our slow moving low included...over the
central portion of the country. Even though all have their problems
overall the Gfs, Canadian, and Ecmwf were doing a little bit better.
The high resolution was doing well initially on the surface wind
field followed by the Gfs/Ecmwf. Gfs started out best on the low
level thermal field.
Today/tonight... Closed upper low currently spinning over/near the
western portion of the area. Models have slowed this system down and
are in no hurry move this system to the east. Currently area is
precipitation free except for the far western portion of the area.
However, deformation zone/frontogenesis is producing a large swatch
of precipitation on the west side of system. Right now it is showers
with embedded thunderstorms.
Theta-e lapse rates are very favorable for a strong response to the
forcing as it moves across. Models show this lift moving across the
forecast area through tonight as spokes of vorticity/mid level lift
and the deformation zone rotate/move across the area. So expect a
rather widespread area of rainfall to move across the area and then
Currently the eastern portion of the area is under a slight risk for
severe weather. This area will probably see the most sun and with
the lapse rates and lift moving in from the west, can definitely see
that happening. Of concern with cold temperatures aloft will be the
possibility of non-supercellur tornadoes developing.
The western portion of the area will be the coolest due to the cloud
cover and precipitation being there the earliest.
Saturday/Saturday night...There may be a short period lingering
rainfall in the northeast but that not expected to last long.
Shortwave ridging will move in behind the system. Models are
producing some light qpf in the far west in the afternoon and not
entirely sure why. Most of the lift waits to come in during the
evening and especially the overnight hours. Qpf init gave some very
light qpf amounts, and will leave the slight chance for now but am
not terribly excited about it.
As stated above, lift increases during the night as shortwave ridge
works its way to the east. A negatively tilted shortwave moves into
the area after 06z with a strong warm air advection/mid level lift moving
in as well. Elevated cape also increases during that time. Qpf amounts
are light at this time so will only have a slight chance but can
see the possibility of raising these pops.
There will be more sun and warmer temperatures and made only minor
adjustments to the previous forecast.
Sunday/Sunday night...There looks to be some ongoing precipitation
in the morning per the above shortwave trough and instability. In
the afternoon and nighttime a stronger shortwave trough will move
through. So will have a slight chance in the morning then a low
chance for the afternoon and nighttime.
Guidance is warmer for the maxes and am a little leary of that.
Clouds will be thickening up with upslope surface winds in place.
Ended up only making minor adjustments.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 231 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016
The extended period will continue to see an unsettling pattern at
least through Thursday. A longwave trough, will develop embedded
lows, as it moves out of the Pacific Northwest, towards the east,
and deepens when it crosses over the High Plains during the
middle of the week. This will cause a series shortwaves to pass over
the Tri-State area and producing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. It will also bring cooler air to the region
resulting in the afternoon highs reaching into the low to mid 70s
by the end of the week.
During the latter part of the week, a longwave ridge will build over
the Rockies and move towards the east, as the longwave trough
moves out of the plains. As a result, expect precipitation chances
to decrease and temperatures to increase heading into next
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016
A brief clearing will occur around 06Z tonight before the lower
clouds sweep back across the area as the surface trough moves east
and the upper low center tracks into eastern Colorado. Therefore,
while conditions start out VFR, expect conditions to deteriorate
to MVFR after 09Z and occasionally IFR between 11Z-14Z mainly due
to ceilings with some lower of visibility due to fog. Conditions
will return to MVFR between 16-18Z with lower ceilings diminishing
and conditions becoming VFR by 00Z Friday evening.