Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 272030
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
130 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE REGION LIES UNDER
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN SPOTS...WITH TEMPS IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST SPOTS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE FRONT
RANGE AND BROAD H5 RIDGE MOVING OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AIDING IN
BRINGING RECORD NUMBERS TO THE REGION. SHORTWAVE OVER THE SW PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT...TRAVERSING
THE CWA GOING ITO WEDNESDAY AS H5 FLATTENS...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL
FLOW. LATEST MODEL RUNS BRING SHORTWAVE ON THE DOORSTEP OF OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 09Z-12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRAVERSE AREA THRU
THE DAY. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW WINDS MIXING DOWN
FROM THE 750-800MB LEVEL FROM 12Z-21Z WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK WIND
POTENTIAL 40-45MPH AFT 18Z. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO WILL KEEP IN. GRADIENT DOES SLACKEN AS TROUGH SHIFT
EASTWARD BY 00Z THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GO THRU DRY WITH LACK OF
ANY MAJOR RH FEED WITH RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY WITH NUMBERS RANGING NEAR 60F WEST...TO
THE MID 65S IN THE EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN AT LEAST
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE CLEAR SKIES WITH RIDGE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MOVES IN DURING THE DAY AND
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
REMAINS PRIMARILY ACROSS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES DURING THE
DAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES SPREADING NORTH DURING THE NIGHT.
PRECIP EXPECTED TO START AS LIGHT RAIN IN THE EVENING THEN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WINDS DURING THE
TIME OF EXPECTED SNOW GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.

SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE PER 850-500MB RH DURING
THE DAY AS SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM FRIDAYS UPPER LOW LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR PART OF THE AREA.  DURING THE NIGHT PERHAPS A BIT OF
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BUT ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING PERHAPS SOME DRIER AIR
BEHIND IT. WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE
END OF THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COLDER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. GOOD
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WITH DECREASING
CHANCES (PERHAPS) FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IF THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN.

SUNDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE (FOR THIS MODEL CYCLE) THAT CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE LEAVING A MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 30S (EAST) TO AROUND 40
(WEST). OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS (EAST) TO NEAR 20 (WEST).

MONDAY...SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THAT PERHAPS MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
(PER MODEL RH FORECASTS) THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SHOULD BE DRY
WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 30S EAST AND LOW TO MID 40S GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC GIVING WAY TO
SCT100-250 BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WSW WINDS 5-15KTS THRU 12Z
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING WNW FOR KMCK 10-20KTS...AND NNW FOR KGLD
15-30KTS...WITH HIGHER CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN



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