Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 260740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
140 AM MDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a short wave trough moving onto the
High Plains from the west.  Water vapor imagery shows the short wave
trough within a corridor of higher water vapor.  At the surface a
dry line was located east of the CO/KS border arcing northwest near
I-70.  To the north a cold front was sagging south into Northern CO.

For the rest of the afternoon am expecting storm activity to
increase over far Eastern Colorado as instability increases under
the upper level short wave trough.  Meanwhile the front will
continue to move south which will increase the potential for
tornadic development this afternoon.  There continues to be a
limited window for severe storms to develop ahead of the short wave
trough due to most of the CAPE being capped off except for a narrow
corridor ahead of the trough.  Am expecting the storms to cluster
later this afternoon as the main short wave trough responsible for
the storm development moves in.  Main threat will be large hail,
with the potential for larger hail closer to 2 inches in diameter in
KS where the CAPE and shear will be stronger, and damaging wind
gusts due to the dry environment and high cloud bases.

Early this evening the storm activity should be centered over the
Tri-State Area.  There could be some training storm activity along
the weak cold front along the KS/NE border.  Storms should begin to
exit the forecast area around mid evening as the upper level short
wave trough moves east of the area.  However models are hinting at
the possibility of elevated storms forming as minor ripples in the
upper level flow move over the forecast area behind the storm
activity.  Am doubtful of this since the environment usually
stabilizes behind a cluster of storms in the evening.  The storm
activity will push the weak front well south of the forecast area.

Friday another more intense round of severe weather is expected to
begin during the latter half of the afternoon as an upper level
short wave trough approaches from the west.  The weak front will
return over the southwest/west quadrant of the forecast area.  Along
and south of the front CAPE will be highest and will begin to be
uncapped during the latter half of the afternoon.  Meanwhile the
upper level short wave trough will move overhead which should
initiate storm development.  This short wave trough will not move
very fast to the east, so there could be repeated storm development
over the southwest/west part of the forecast area as a result.  Deep
layer shear will be stronger than today, 40-50 kts, favorable for
stronger storms than today.  With the upper level short wave trough
moving fairly slowly and precipitable water values above normal,
heavy rainfall will be much more likely than today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 140 AM MDT Fri May 26 2017

The second half of the extended period will be the time to see rain
showers and thunderstorms over the CWA. Monday and Tuesday could see
brief periods of precipitation along and west of the Colorado,
Kansas border in the afternoon hours. A severe threat is not
expected either of those days.

Wednesday and Thursday are showing a stronger signal for
precipitation over the region. Current guidance has the CWA
partially under a ridge that is to the west, as well as keeping
upper level northwest flow over a good portion of the region. That
will create the potential for storms is a low pressure system moving
over the southwestern CONUS both days under the ridge. This will
help with bringing in some moisture to the region. There are times
where CAPEs are favorable for storm development but 0-6 km shear is
not great. Also, the GFS and EC are a little off on timing. The EC
is about 6 to 12 hours ahead on Wednesday. For Thursday, they both
show precipitation over the region but the GFS has stronger
instability then the EC. Right now, storm chances are in the
forecast but seeing embedded strong storms both days is more likely
then severe storms (based on current guidance).

Temperatures during the period will primarily be in the 70s with
some areas seeing the low 80s through the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Thu May 25 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with north
winds becoming light overnight and turning to the southeast
towards late afternoon on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to spread across the region from west to east with storms
reaching GLD around 00Z and MCK by 03Z.




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