Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 132211

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
311 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

The high amplitude pattern remains over the western U.S. with the
ridge over the Intermountain region and northwest flow across the
central high plains region.  A fast moving short wave trough moves
across the forecast area through the northwest flow aloft between
06Z-12Z. The colder air over the eastern portions of the forecast
area moves east as the surface trough also moves eastward across the
area along with the short wave trough aloft.  Warmer temperatures
are expected on Sunday with high temperatures ranging from the lower
40s in the east to the lower 50s in the west. With RH values near
saturation across the northeast overnight along with the short wave
trough moving across, there is a possibility of the far northeast
and east seeing a few flurries overnight along with persistent low
clouds and possibly patchy areas of fog mainly around sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

Sun night-Mon night: A potent upper level low will dig southward
from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes Sun night/Mon (with additional
shortwave energy energy digging SSE from Saskatchewan/Manitoba
into the Dakotas), on the eastern periphery of an upper level
ridge situated invof the Pacific coast /Intermountain West/.
Arctic high pressure will surge southward from Canada into the
Central Plains in association with strong subsidence on the
western periphery of the aforementioned upper low, the leading
edge of which is expected to progress southward through the Tri-
State region as a strong cold front Sunday evening.

Despite NW flow aloft /little moisture/, a NW-SE oriented band of
ana-frontal precipitation is expected Monday morning in assoc/w
with fleeting low-level frontogenesis (via speed convergence at
the leading edge of the thermal gradient) in addition to cyclonic
shear vorticity and DPVA attendant shortwave energy digging SSE
along the western periphery of the upper low. Expect precipitation
to be light in nature, and largely confined to 06-18Z Mon, with
liquid equiv at or below 0.05" (< 1" of snow accum).

Expect temperatures to continue falling in the wake of FROPA on
Monday as insolation is (at least initially) offset by cloud cover
and precipitation /evap cooling/. With an arctic airmass in
place, clearing skies, and possible fresh (albeit light) snow
cover, expect temps approaching or falling below 0F Mon night,
with wind chill readings in the -10 to -20F range.

Tue-Sat: Model guidance indicates an amplified/progressive
synoptic pattern will prevail through next weekend. As a result,
forecast uncertainty is greater than average, particularly with
regard to precipitation chances. In general, expect dry conditions
and large diurnal temperature ranges.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1045 AM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

The colder airmass containing the lower clouds and areas of fog
remains in place across the eastern portions of the central high
plains region this afternoon. The areas of the region outside of
the colder airmass will see VFR conditions and mostly sunny skies
while the areas still in the colder air will start out MVFR with
occasionally IFR conditions possible.

GLD should go quickly to VFR and remain in VFR outside of the
colder airmass as south winds turn southwest this evening and
then west after 06Z.

MCK will start out MVFR in the colder airmass ahead of the surface
trough with light southeast winds continuing through much of the
day. Those winds will become light and variable after 06Z with a
transition to VFR conditions between 00-06Z. There may be some
intermittent low clouds and IFR conditions around sunrise between
11-14Z, but conditions should otherwise stay VFR through the
remainder of the TAF period.




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