Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 190825
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY.  BY
TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
WYOMING/EASTERN UTAH.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE FA DUE TO THE
LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FA EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT IT IS STAYING SOUTH OF THE FA.  THE HRRR
DOES NOT INDICATE ANY STRATUS OVER THE AREA. PLAN TO MONITOR AND
MAKE FINAL DECISION PRIOR TO ISSUANCE.

850 TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY STEADY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWER
TO MID 70S MONDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE
TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND ROCKIES. A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS A
SOLID BET. IN FACT...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITHIN 850 MB
TEMPS...STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND 00Z MEX/ECE GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO
RAISE HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HIGHS COULD EASILY BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

WITH REGARDS TO THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING. THE LATEST TREND WAS FOR A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...MEANING A QUICKER END TO THE
PRECIPITATION. SOME GUIDANCE IN PREVIOUS RUNS HIGHLIGHTED THE
POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY. THIS NO LONGER LOOKS TO
BE THE CASE AS A COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD
FORCE ALL PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA. IT
IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS DROPPING BELOW 5 MB AND A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS MEAGER BUT COULDNT RULE OUT A
STORM OR TWO.

ONE OF THE FEW DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN FORECAST GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED IS OVERALL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS INDICATES WARMER TEMPERATURES...
STRONGER 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE 200-300 J/KG HIGHER THAN
THE EUROPEAN AND UP 600-900 J/KG HIGHER THAN THE CANADIAN. ALL
MODELS INDICATE CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO THINK THE GFS IS
TOO AMBITIOUS WITH TEMPS/INSTABILITY. KEPT THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION
IN THE FORECAST BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

KGLD...SOUTH WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BY 08Z THEN SOUTHWEST BY 14Z AROUND
10KTS THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH 5-10KTS AROUND 17Z AND FINALLY
NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BY 21Z. MAY SEE A PERIOD LGT/VRB WINDS IN THE
02Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER LEVELS. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS IN THE
10Z-16Z TIMEFRAME PER NAM SOLUTION. GFS SHOWS SIMILAR SCENARIO
BUT BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES A BIT LESS.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 07KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 13Z-19Z.
AROUND 20Z THROUGH 01Z LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 05KTS THEN
BECOMING LGT/VRB FROM 02Z THROUGH 06Z. CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO UPPER
LEVELS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99


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