Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 290224
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
824 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST TO ACCT FOR LATEST HOURLIES
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE CWA WITH ONLY HIGH-BASED SMOKE MOVING THRU THE AREA FROM
WESTERN FIRES. NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THIS AS NONE IN LOWER
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE BREEZY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH OR SO. WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE CLOSED
LOW...HAVE HAD LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS MIXING ENDS.  LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO THE LOWER DEW
POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A 850 MB RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD.  DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO TODAY.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM
THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM AND GFS WERE STARTING OUT BETTER THAN THE
OTHER OUTPUT. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
IN GENERAL THEY WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH. IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TENDED TO DO BETTER THAN THE GFS
...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS DOING BETTER
FURTHER WEST. THE SREF WAS DOING BETTER ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING LATCHING ONTO THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. THE CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
SO THE COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN TO ME LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL GO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SHARP/HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE
AREA ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE GOES.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN...IT DEFINITELY SUPPORTS A
SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST RIDGE. SO AGAIN LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER
WITH AN INCREASE LATER ON IN THE NIGHT IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A LITTLE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIND
DIRECTION SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WHICH IS NOT THE BEST FOR A BIG
WARMUP. MAV/GFS APPEARS A LITTLE WARM AND WENT CLOSER TO THE CLUSTER
OF THE 2 METER AND 850 TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK A
LITTLE WARMER BUT THE WINDS DO DROP OFF AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN PORTION WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH ENDS UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SO WENT COOLER IN THE WEST.

MONDAY...MODELS NOT HANDLING INCOMING UPPER TROUGH THE SAME WITH
SOME FASTER THAN OTHERS. THE FASTER MODELS HAVE A WEAK RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF WAS THE FASTEST WITH GFS NEXT IN LINE AND
THE CANADIAN JUST BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN HAS A
STRONGER JET. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER WEST.

THIS SAME REFLECTION IS ALSO ON THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS MORE
SUPPORT TO HAVE THE LIFT AT ALL LEVELS FURTHER WEST. SO FOR THE
AFTERNOON I REDUCED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND PULLED THOSE POPS
BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. WITH THE THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER WEST...I RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE SOUTHEAST HALF...SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HAVE A COMPLETE
DAY OF WARMING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF HIGHER CLOUDS OUT WEST
WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE FRONT THE COOLEST
THERE ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THIS
PERIOD MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WHAT MAKES THIS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH. BUT
WHAT MAKES THIS MORE DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON IS HOW THE
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK BROAD TROUGH BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF US AND ALSO
HOW THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE PATH OF TROPICAL ERICA.

BASED ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN IS NOW...THINKING THE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS OF FEATURES WILL PROBABLY END
UP WORKING OUT. IN GENERAL THE DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT...AND WPC DEPICTION SHOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA DUE TO THE WESTERN TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE BEING PUSHED OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AT FACE VALUE THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA OPEN TO
SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO ACT ON THIS MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS HINT AT/SHOW AND WPC GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE
DEPICTED FLOW ALOFT WORKS OUT...WOULD EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY NOT TOO
MOVE MUCH OR MEANDER BACK AND FORTH. THE CRH_INT GRIDS PUT IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH FITS WITH THE
ABOVE REASONING/SCENARIO. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO SEE
NO REASON TO CHANGE ANY OF THE INIT PARAMETERS WITH MODEL DISPARITY
MAKING IT HARD TO MAKE DEFINITE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKC OVERNIGHT
GIVING WAY TO FEW-SCT060 BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. 6SM IN SMOKE POSSIBLE
THRU 06Z SATURDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-20KTS BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY 07Z-08Z...THEN BY MIDDAY...KGLD WILL SEE SW
AROUND 10KTS AND KMCK WILL SEE SE AROUND 5KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN



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