Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 141912

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1212 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 318 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

Forecast concerns will be the temperature forecast through Tuesday
which includes very cold chill temperatures Monday night into
Tuesday, and the chance of snow through tonight into Monday.
Satellite showing a progressive flow through the central Pacific
before becoming amplified from the eastern Pacific into the western
Atlantic. High amplitude ridge near the west coast of North America
has become slightly more amplified from yesterday.

Models started out fine at the jet level. Models were close on the
mid levels with the Ukmet and Ecmwf doing slightly better,
especially with the western ridge. The Canadian and Sref started out
the best on the low level thermal.

Today...Have been getting precipitation during the night as a result
of a left front quadrant of the mid and upper level jet on top of a
mid level baroclinic zone. Jet moves east through the morning with
it being just east of the area late in the morning. This
precipitation has been decreasing in coverage and intensity as the
night has progressed. Looks like it will be done by the beginning of
the day so will not include any precipitation this morning.

It looks like there will be more cloud cover around than previous
anticipated. That plus the newer guidance not as warm earlier, I did
lower the maxes just a little.

tonight through Monday night...Models are consistent in bringing in
the right rear quadrant of northern jet late tonight and affecting
the northeast portion of my area. The models then take that lift
south and west through the day and then south of the area by late
evening. Rather strong mid and upper level forcing moves across the
area through early evening. The problem as shown yesterday is that
the theta-e lapse rates are not great. Models are consistent in
their qpf field and because of the lack of instability, the amounts
should stay light. The winds do pick up late in the night into the
day and should cause some minor blowing of the snow.

Then the focus turns to how cold to make it Monday night and how
much colder the wind chill readings will be. Per collaboration with
neighbors, it was noted that the models are clearing the
moisture/cloud cover at all levels a lot faster and further south
and west than what they were showing 24 hours ago.

Models also consistent in bringing in the nose of 1048 to 1051 mb
high into my central and eastern portion of my area by 12z Tuesday.
The Canadian continues to be the coldest model and is colder than
yesterday and has subzero readings across my entire area. The FB
mins came in about the same or slightly cooler than previous run but
still appear to be too warm. MOS mins are cooler than the blend.

There will not be a lot of wind but enough with these subzero
temperatures to create very cold wind chill temperatures. With the
current winds and lows expected, much of the area looks like it will
need a wind chill advisory. However, it will not take much for
warning criteria to be met in the northeast half of the area.
Collaboration agreed that a highlight will be needed but to hold off
on doing so at this time. However will start messaging this event.
Day shift will have to take another close look at this.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Cold wind chills continue in the morning.
Models bring in the left front quadrant of a northeast to southwest
jet into our area during the last half of the day. That jet moves
east of the area by late evening. How much will it warm up. Kept the
builder maxes except for the eastern zones which I lowered a little
bit considering the very cold start expected in that area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 202 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

Wednesday-Friday: Most models have come into better agreement on
track of shortwave trough Wed night through Thursday night keeping
it over the Northern Plains. The differences that are there do not
make a significant impact on expected sensible weather over our CWA.
With this in mind we are anticipating split flow and rising heights
Wednesday through Thursday, followed by flow Friday. This will
support dry conditions and a warming trend. I trended highs up a
little Friday, and could still see us reaching 60F or warmer
depending on daytime clearing and magnitude of WAA in southwest

Saturday-Saturday night: A deeper trough is shown to build over the
Western US then deepen as it crosses the Rockies into the Plains.
There is considerable variation on the evolution of this
trough/upper low, but GFS/GEM do alight over our CWA at least
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night showing the potential for
accumulating snow (maybe even moderate accumulations depending on
track/timing). This is still pretty far out and ECMWF is much less
supportive of any kind of precip, so I trended PoPs back from model
consensus some. This still introduces high chance PoPs in our north
and east (favored areas in GFS/GEM). This pattern will need to be
monitored, but I suspect due the progressive track predictability is
going to be limited until we are much closer in time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1039 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

VFR conditions are expected with a possibility of lowering to MVFR
with light snow and lower clouds between 05-13Z as a colder
airmass moves into the region overnight and early Monday morning.




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