Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 252001
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
201 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
ROTATING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH MAIN AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS SE COLORADO INTO SW KANSAS.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL MAINLY BE ALONG
TROUGH AXIS AND ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO (WEST OF OUR CWA.
CURRENTLY VERY HIGH CINH IS PREVENTING LOCAL INITIATION...HOWEVER CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREAS WHERE CAP IS MOST LIKELY
TO BREAK ALSO CORRELATE WITH LOWEST CAPE/DRIEST AIR MASS...SO
COVERAGE IS LIMITED. BEYOND A VERY SMALL THREAT FOR DRY MICROBURST
POTENTIAL...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL THAN TODAY FROM SOME
GUIDANCE...HOWEVER SOUNDING ACTUALLY SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIR MASS AND
STRONGER CAP THAN TODAY. VERY HOT AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
APPROACHING 100F OVER PARTS OF THE CWA...AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
MAY SUPPORT RH VALUES AND WINDS NEAR RED FLAG THRESHOLDS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER A SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY EAST ON FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAYS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN LATER ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A LEE SIDE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEEPEN INTO A WEAK 700MB TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO
TUESDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY
ONCE MORE MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF THE HIGH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD... AS WELL AS THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MVFR CIGS/VIS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE KGLD
TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
MENTION...AND TREND WILL BE FOR BETTER MOISTURE TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 10-12KT
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST. SURFACE GRADIENT
INCREASES WEDNESDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND OUTSIDE THE TAF PERIOD AT
KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR


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