Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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105
FXUS63 KGLD 271144
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
544 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday tonight)
Issued at 406 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Main forecast issue remains thunderstorm chances. Satellite showing
an amplified pattern over the Pacific, more amplified than yesterday.
This transitions to a ridge centered over the southwest portion
with west to northwest flow over the region. Stationary boundary
was over/near the eastern portion of the area

At jet level...The Canadian/Gfs/Nam were doing the best to start
out. At mid levels...The Canadian/Gfs/Ukmet were starting out the
best. The Sref looked to be doing the best so far on the surface
wind and pressure field but will have to wait to see where the
outflow boundaries end up. The Gfs/Canadian/Nam were doing well on
the low level thermal field.

Today/tonight...Outflow from the thunderstorm complex that moved
across Nebraska and north central Kansas has shifted the winds to an
east to northeast direction. There is a lot of mid and high level
cloud cover plus lingering rainfall, more on that below, over and
near the area at this time. Also the temperature and dewpoint
spreads are not that close. So at this time will leave fog out of
the morning forecast, but will continue to monitor.

There is still a decent amount of moisture around with lingering
lift. Currently there is spotty showers/isolated thunderstorms over
and near the area, and will leave a slight chance through mid
morning.

Now for this afternoon and tonight. Left front quadrant of the jet
remains near or over the far north and northwest portion of the area
through the middle of the night before pulling a little further
north. Satellite and PV analysis shows a rather strong shortwave
trough over Wyoming at this time. This looks to be the shortwave
responsible to cause thunderstorms to develop. Lift is not that far
away and expect a little earlier start to the storms this afternoon.
At this time have slight to chance pops, highest in the north, for
this afternoon. The strong lift pushes across tonight. This lift and
general model agreement of a good precipitation signal/qpf,
especially from the convective allowing models, supported raising
pops into the high chance to likely categories.

High temperatures are somewhat problematic. Outflow has brought
cooler air in and should get an early afternoon start to the
thunderstorms. Tended to toward the cooler guidance.

Thursday/Thursday night...There looks to be some lingering
thunderstorms in the far east in the morning. By the middle of the
day there is strong jet lift to the north of our area. By the end of
the afternoon that transitions to a right rear quadrant and/or a
weak coupled jet structure.

That transitions to a left front quadrant approaching the western
portion of the area by late in the evening. That moves off to the
north during the overnight hours. During the afternoon and nighttime
a rather strong shortwave will move from the northwest. So rather
deep lift will move across the area with a strong precipitation
signal in place. Currently have high chance to likely for the
night but if current trends continue will probably need even
higher pops.

If we can get a decent amount of sun and increase the instability,
there should be a decent chance to have severe thunderstorms.
However, due to possible mesoscale influences from todays convection
chose not to mention it in the zones yet, and will cover this in
the Hwo. The more widespread looks to be heavy rainfall. Storm
movement does not look to be too slow. However Pwats will be from
near 1.5 to near 2 inches. So put a mention of heavy rainfall in
the forecast.

High temperatures will be cooler, the 80s, but some uncertainty on
this due to mesoscale influences that could make it even cooler.

Friday/Friday night...Hard to be too definite about this period
since expect the area will be heavily influenced from the overnight
convection. There looks to be lingering rainfall in the morning with
additional shortwave energy to move in from the northwest. Also a
possibility that could have a significant amount of cloud cover
through the day to keep the air mass more stable than expect. For
now the forecast has slight chance to chance pops. High temperatures
will be cooler and per reasoning above, could be even cooler than I
have them.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

At the beginning of the extended period, the ridge located over
the southwestern U.S. will move eastward and its axis will cross
over the Tri-State area at the start of the new work week. This
ridge will be the predominant feature during this long term.
Anticipate mostly drier condition and above normal temperatures,
highs reaching the upper 90s on Monday and Tuesday. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
late afternoon/early evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 541 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

At this time am expecting vfr conditions at both sites. Am
expecting thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and affect both
sites, especially during the late afternoon into the evening
hours. Chose to go vcts early then a definite mention -tsra later
in the afternoon through the evening. If one of the stronger
storms moves directly over the site, there may be sub vfr
conditions.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BULLER



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