Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 251853
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS 18-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE NEAR
KMCK WHERE NAM/SREF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY MIXING MAY KEEP VIS HIGHER AND MAINLY LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MIXING DIMINISHES I
EXPECT VIS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE. FOG MAY REACH AS FAR
WEST AS KGLD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I INTRODUCED
LIFR GROUP BY 12Z AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE.

GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT GLD. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH FOG.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...DR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.