Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 212045
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
245 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Am expecting a generally clear sky tonight with a westerly component
to the wind in the 5 to 12 mph range. Dewpoints will be in the mid
teens to low 20s. Question will be how much of the forecast area
experiences freezing/sub freezing temperatures. Blending better
performing bias corrected grids with MET/MAV guidance shows lows in
the 30 to 35 degree range (west to east). This may work well given
the expected winds which should be enough to keep atmosphere mixed.
However, will be going a few degrees under above mentioned guidance
just in case winds are a little lighter and not as widespread
(valleys, etc) which produces lows in the mid 20s to near 30 in far
eastern Colorado, upper 20s to low 30s elsewhere. Graham county is
the only county not below 32 degrees tonight and with a forecast low
of 33 very close to call with regard to whether or not to go with a
Freeze warning. Per coordination with Dodge City office will keep
Graham county in the Freeze Warning.

For Sunday am expecting afternoon temperatures to peak in the low
70s under a generally sunny sky. Winds slowly increase from the
west and southwest with speeds in the 10 to 20 mph range with some
locally higher gusts in the late morning through mid afternoon
hours.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Sunday night, expecting further ridging building into the area
allowing for sunny skies and breezy winds up to 35 mph. Highs will
be fairly comfortable through Wednesday when temps will reach the
mid to upper 70s until the next system moves through on Thursday
bringing in gusty northerly winds across the area. After that,
highs will drop below 60 degrees.

Guidance has not drastically changed in the extended and there is
some disagreement still, but continuing to hold onto some mixed
wintry precipitation starting Thursday evening through the
extended. From Thursday night on, our CWA will experience
low temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1005 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Northwest winds gusting to 40kts are expected from taf issuance
through early afternoon before slowly decreasing and finally
falling below 12kts by 23z-00z. For tonight winds begin the period
from the northwest then back to the west at speeds under 10kts.
For Sunday morning winds start to increase from the southwest with
KGLD seeing gusts near 20kts by 18z and KMCK seeing gusts to
15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected Sunday from
around noon MDT through 3 PM MDT for Sherman and Wallace counties of
Kansas and Kit Carson county Colorado. In these areas winds may
gust near 25 mph with relative humidities around or slightly
higher than 15 percent.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT
     /9 AM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Freeze Warning from midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight to 8 AM MDT
     /9 AM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...EV
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99


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