Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 260554

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1154 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

18Z water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated plume of
moisture from northern Mexico into eastern Nebraska...with short
wave trough digging into Utah and Nevada. At the sfc 1024 mb ridge
was centered over the Nebraska panhandle with easterly sfc flow
ongoing across the CWA.

Although some shallow cu fields developing now along periphery of
sfc field very limited in vertical extent and with
the lack of any incoming forcing mechanism do not expect any
storms developing during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Stronger shortwave trough begins to influence the CWA late
tonight through tomorrow afternoon. Fairly good signal that
instability will rise prior to passage of trough and expect
decent coverage of precipitation given timing of the forcing.
Expect storms coverage to peak between 18 and 21z and gradually
shift to the east. Given the expected instability and wind
profiles...would not be shocked to see a severe storm or two but
expect heavy rain to be primary forecast concern at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Upper trough moves across the region overnight Friday into Saturday
morning. Strong to severe storms are possible with this trough as
there will be good CAPE (1000 to 1600 J/Kg) and deep layer shear (40
to 50 kts) ahead of the trough. PoPs are highest during the early
overnight hours which will associate with the highest potential
for severe thunderstorms. Currently, there is a slight discontinuity
between the strongest forcing and the highest instability so we
will need to assess further model runs to see if this lines up
better. The system will move from northwest to southeast before
stalling to the southeast of the CWA, providing a focus for shower
and thunderstorm development Saturday through Tuesday mainly for
the eastern most portions of the CWA. As the boundary weakens on
Tuesday, there will be a gradual diminishing of the PoPs through
the day. High pressure builds in from the south and west as we
head into Tuesday afternoon and will dry things out across the
region. Dry weather will prevail through the end of the forecast
period under a weak H5 ridge.

Near normal temperatures will prevail on Saturday as highs reach the
lower to middle 80s. Above normal temperatures are expected Sunday
through the end of the period with highs in the upper 80s. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s through Wednesday


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Prevailing conditions at MCK and GLD will remain VFR through the
TAF period with intermittent MVFR possible due primarily to low
ceilings mainly between 14Z and 21Z as showers and thunderstorms
move through the central high plains region. Ceilings should raise
as the main area of thunderstorms moves off to the east with only
isolated storms remaining after about 03Z.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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