Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231004
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN THE MIDWEST
WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT SO FAR AND
ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PICK UP A LITTLE BIT LATER THIS MORNING
EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...PERHAPS UP TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. AS WIND MAX ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
AREA...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN HIGH WIND
WARNING IS HIGHEST IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
EASTWARD...SO DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WATCH. CONSIDERATION ALSO
GIVEN TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS
ABOUT 50/50 FOR WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OF LESS THAN 1
MILE...DUE TO MARGINALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS. NONETHELESS...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO
LESS THAN A MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
BEST CHANCES FOR THAT OCCURRING WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SNOW WILL START TO WIND DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON ENDING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
IMPACTED BY SNOWCOVER NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SO FAVORED COOLER MAX
TEMPS.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
CHRISTMAS DAY AND EMERGE ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CHRISTMAS
NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING IN EASTERN COLORADO IN THE
EVENING GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LARGER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION WITH PRECIPITATION WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW ALSO LIFTING
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY SUNDAY.  THIS PRECEDES A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND MAINLY THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

LIGHT SNOW HAS MOVED INTO SW NEBRASKA AND AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
REDUCED VIS TO 3/4SM-2SM RANGE...AND AS UPSTREAM TRENDS AND SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES PREVAILING VIS SHOULD BE WITHIN VFR. I
ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR...WITH PREVAILING CONDITIONS DROPPING.
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A WINDOW FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT KMCK
LATE TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY HIGHER
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WHERE STRONGER WINDS/BETTER PRECIP RATES
ARE PROGGED. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE KGLD
TERMINAL AFTER 09Z...WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF REDUCED VIS DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH PREVAILING VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ013-027-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR


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