Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220514

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1114 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...locales are seeing a
psunny/msunny mix with temperatures ranging in the 60s to the lower
70s with a light west/northwest wind. A weak line of showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms is currently moving thru Kit Carson
county...continuing towards the Kansas border.

This will be the trend for the rest of the day on into the evening
hours. A shortwave working off the Rockies tonight will work in
tandem with the inverted surface trough over the Desert SW. These
two systems will swing east into the Central/Southern Plains
bringing a chance for precip to the area.

Going into Monday...precip clears the region followed by another
500/700 shortwave during the course of the day. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible. SPC has put the SE section of the CWA
under a Marginal Risk for severe conditions. As the system comes
into contact with a more unstable airmass going into central
KS...strong to severe wx is possible especially for the
afternoon/early evening.

For temps...looking for overnight lows to drop into the lower and
mid 30s...transitioning around 70F on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Chc PoPs remain in the forecast Monday night as an upper low moves
southeastward into the southern Great Lakes region, extending a
trough to the southwest. Showers and thunderstorm chances are
highest before midnight with diminishing chances from midnight
through sunrise. Slgt chc to chc PoPs are again in the forecast
Tuesday with showers/thunderstorms possible mainly during the
afternoon hours. Shortwave high pressure moves into the region on
Wednesday with dry weather expected to prevail through the day and
into the overnight.

Thursday and Friday will be more active, with afternoon
thunderstorms expected both days. An upper low will traverse the
northern plains, extending a trough southward into the region that
will interact with increasing instability and moisture. Shear will
increase through the afternoon on Thursday with only minimal deep
layer shear in place across the entire CWA on Friday. The main
thunderstorm chances will be during the late afternoon on Thursday
with a more prolonged chance of thunderstorms on Friday. At this
point, severe thunderstorms are possible both days with Thursday`s
threat being mainly in the southeastern portions of CWA and Friday`s
threat extending westward across the entire CWA.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend as
the upper low stalls in the northern Plains. Instability will be in
place; however, it will be much lower than on previous days. Shear
will be a bit lower as well, leading to a lingering threat of strong
storms but with far less coverage of severe thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1114 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through the area
overnight may briefly reduce ceilings/visibility as they move over
the terminals. Trend will be for the activity to move south and
should no longer be impacting either terminal by 10z. A period of
VFR is expected Monday morning through early afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop once again by mid afternoon
and continue through Monday evening.




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