Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 192036
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
236 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

No problems expected tonight with a dry northwest flow aloft.
Attention turns to Tuesday afternoon and potential for severe
thunderstorms. Synoptic scale forcing will be very weak, as the
ridge centered near the Four Corners will be the main feature.
However, cannot discount the presence of a weak shortwave trough
currently in Nevada rotating over the top of the ridge and across
the area Tuesday afternoon. At the surface, a lee trough will
slide out of northeast Colorado and be near an Oberlin to Tribune
line by 21z. Convergence along this feature as well as intense
surface heating should be enough for convective initiation between
21-22z with mean storm motion east to southeast at 10-15 kts. The
environment will be moderately unstable with pockets of strong
instability near the boundary. DCAPE is very strong at 1500-2000
with a deeply mixed boundary layer. Deep layer shear is forecast
to be 40-45 kts at the time of convective initiation. PWAT values
average around 1.50 inches. These parameters suggest a threat of
supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado, although LCLs are rather high. PWAT values
suggest locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, especially
with right movers which will have a slightly slower storm motion.

Although the parameters strongly suggest severe weather will occur
in areas along and east of an Oberlin to Tribune line in northwest
Kansas Tuesday afternoon, overall threat somewhat tempered by the
lack of synoptic scale forcing. As a result, coverage will probably
be limited to scattered at best, but those storms that do develop
will likely become severe.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Tuesday night: Strong to severe storms will continue to be possible
for eastern portions of the area through the evening, coming to an
end before midnight. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s for most
areas.

Wednesday-Thursday: Upper level ridge deamplifies and a more zonal
flow aloft sets up. Strong surface heating combined with shortwaves
embedded in the flow pattern will allow for a chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening for both days of this
period. Thursday will have the better dynamics in place, especially
over the eastern half of the CWA, and therefore, will have the
better potential for some severe storms. Temperatures will be above
normal for the period, particularly Wednesday when highs will be in
the upper 90s to low 100s for the entire area.

Friday-Monday: After the 12Z runs this morning, global models are in
strong disagreement of when a cold front will pass through our area.
The GFS shows frontal passage some time Thursday night into early
Friday morning. ECMWF is later in the weekend with the usherance of
cooler temps, closer to Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
Forecast temperatures for Friday and Saturday are essentially a
blend of the two, with a slight lean to the GFS. A stray shower will
be possible Friday through Sunday night. Temperatures will be below
normal after the front goes through. For Sunday, highs should remain
in the 70s across the entire CWA. Monday looks to be dry with
temperatures close to or just below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface
high pressure continues to dominate the region resulting in mostly
clear skies. There have been some gusty winds around KGLD, but
they will gradually diminish through the afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...024



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