Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280843
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  A
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

POPS WILL BE NIL TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE. A
SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED LATER TONIGHT AROUND 06Z MONDAY BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING WITH BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
RESULTING NIL POPS.  PLAN TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST FA.  SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY AND MONDAY AND
THEN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND 65 TO 70 TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
RIDGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS TIME.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS A
RESULT...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO LESSEN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...A HIGHER AREA OF JET SPEEDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.  THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THERE WILL BE GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



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