Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
554 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Short term concerns are hot temperatures over the next few days
with heat index maximums near 105 and heat index minimums around
75 with the possibility of thunderstorms each day.

The large high pressure area aloft over the central United States
flattens somewhat through the end of the week and retrogrades
back over the southwest as a couple of short wave troughs lift
out of the southwest and track up the back side of the ridge and a
larger upper trough tracks through the northwest U.S. along the
Canadian border. The upper trough emerges east of the Rockies
Friday night over southern Saskatchewan and eastern Montana. A
persistent surface trough remains generally in place over the
western portion of the forecast area through Friday with mainly
south winds across the region ahead of the trough. As the upper
ridge flattens over the central U.S. and the upper trough moves
east of the northern Rockies by late Friday and over the northern
plains by Friday night, a cold front is expected to begin moving
into the central high plains region.

Temperatures across the forecast area will remain hot ahead of
this front with highs well in the 90s to lower 100s and lows in
the 60s to middle 70s. Combined with dewpoints that remain mostly
in the lower 60s across the northern and eastern extent of the
forecast area, expect maximum heat index values near 105 with
minimum heat index values in the middle 70s across the same area.
The heat advisory remains in effect for those areas and looks to
be on track, so will leave it as is.

With short wave impulses moving east of the Rockies and across the
plains each day with moisture convergence and increased
instabilty in the vicinity of the surface trough over the western
sections of the forecast area, expect isolated to scattered
thunderstorms developing west of the forecast area each afternoon
and evening to move eastward through the evening and overnight
hours with storms dissipating as they move further east into the

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Ridge breaks down and slides westward as we head into Saturday and
Sunday. A nearly stationary theta-e boundary associated with a
cold front will be in place from southwest to northeast across
the CWA on Saturday and will strengthen as we head into Sunday,
allowing for slgt chc to chc PoPs across the area mainly during
the mid afternoon through late evening. Surface low pressure will
remain in place in the vicinity of this boundary due to lee side
upper level divergent flow. CAPE values are expected to be up to
1600 J/Kg and shear will be very low thus severe potential will be
limited to gusty winds and perhaps large hail in the presence of
DCAPE values around 700 to 1200 J/Kg. Much cooler temperatures
much closer to seasonal averages will prevail in the wake of this
cold front.

Troughing will take shape over the eastern US as we head into
Monday. A cold front will push southward at this time and back into
the CWA on Monday afternoon, giving us another chance of
thunderstorms through the day and into the evening. There is some
disagreement with the placement of the front however; both global
models indicate the same general timing of the feature. The front
will wash out as we head into Tuesday and a ridge will begin to
build over the western states.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 436 AM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

VFR conditions will persist at GLD and MCK through the TAF
period. South winds will become light through the day with LLWS
possible after 06Z tonight.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ002>004-

NE...Heat Advisory from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 6 PM MDT
     /7 PM CDT/ Friday for NEZ079>081.



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