Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 220939
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
239 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW MOVING PRECIP BAND ON REGIONAL RADAR
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT
SINCE LAST UPDATE. STILL LOOKING FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX INTO THIS
AREA AS EVENING PROGRESSES...SO MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL STILL
HOLD...WITH ANY ACCUMULATION ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST. SOME TWEAKS TO WINDS AND TEMPS AS WELL DUE TO
POSITION OF TROUGH FROM LATEST OBS. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE NOW SEEMINGLY SWUNG THE OTHER WAY WITH
BRINGING A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH INTO THE CONUS COMPARED TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SAMPLING APPEARS TO BE AN
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC...SO UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORECAST POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO CONTINUE
TO VARY FOR THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WHAT SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT IS THAT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH GENERAL TIMING BEING
THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AT THIS
POINT.  RAIN/SNOW MIXES WILL START THE DAY AND BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

PLACED A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE SLOWING NATURE OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH.  BECAUSE
THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL NOT PASS
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z SATURDAY...THINKING THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW.  LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AT
MOST.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

MVFR/VFR MIX OF CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN030-040 UP TO BKN060-100.
3-5SM WITH -RW/-SW BEFORE 09Z THIS MORNING AND AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH WNW/NW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 10Z
THIS MORNING THEN 25-40KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN


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