Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 030817
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
117 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
WITH MOST PLACES SEEING HIGHS IN THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF I70 BUT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH. AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF I70 WEDNESDAY MORNING ENDING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY BUT LACKS MOISTURE
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE CONTINUED
COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE THROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FINALLY SWEEPS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH SNOW
DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT 1-2
INCHES AT MOST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO
LESS THAN ONE INCH FURTHER EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...10-15 MPH NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED FOR EITHER THE SNOW OR THE
COLD WIND CHILLS AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY END UP MENTIONING THEM
IN THE HWO TO MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY.

SIGNIFICANT WARMING TAKES PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES COME UP TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS
PLACING THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE PATTERN FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE
OUT OF PHASE BETWEEN MODELS BY TUESDAY...BUT THE END RESULT IS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION REMAINS WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND DRY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS ARE NOW REVERSING COURSE ON NOT ONLY FOG BUT STRATUS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING A VERY HARD TIME THE LAST FEW DAYS IN
RESOLVING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW.
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME VFR AT KGLD. PER SATELLITE AND LATEST
RAP/HRRR THAT MATCHES UP PRETTY WELL. SO UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT NEAR 14Z...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH KGLD...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MVFR FOR ABOUT 4 TO 5 HOURS BEFORE BECOME VFR AGAIN. TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING NEAR
KGLD. SO AT THIS TIME JUST PUT VCSH WITH MVFR CEILINGS. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL NEAR 12Z WHEN THEY
BRIEFLY BECOME VFR RIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. JUST LIKE
KGLD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 4 TO 5 HOURS AFTER THE
FRONT COMES THROUGH. AROUND 19Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THAT TIME...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS LIGHT SNOW...DEPICTED BY VCSH...MOVES INTO THE AREA.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER


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