Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 122131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
231 PM MST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM MST Mon Feb 12 2018

Longwave trough currently extends across the Great Basin, with
southwest VLow across the Central High Plains. A shortwave trough is
currently moving over our CWA and is responsible for light returns
(likely associated with flurries) transitioning over our eastern
CWA. A warm front has stalled just north of interstate 70 in NW
Kansas. Tight southerly gradient has developed east of surface low
pressure in CO, and gusts have been observed around 45 mph. This has
caused minor drifting and blowing snow where lingering snow pack is
in place.

Tonight-Wednesday: Southwest flow aloft persists through these
periods, and the arctic air mass previously entrenched over our CWA
will slowly retreat to the northeast, with WAA from the southwest.
This pattern may continue to support period of opaque cirrus and
this (as well as lingering snow pack) limits confidence on temps.
Overall the trend should be towards dry conditions and warmer
temperatures. If there is more sunshine than currently expected we
may see highs approach 70F Wed afternoon, otherwise the air mass
would still be warm enough to supper highs around 60F.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 231 PM MST Mon Feb 12 2018

Thursday-Thursday night: Another upper level trough rounding the
western edge of the Hudson Bay Low in Canada is shown to swing
into the plains, with an associated arctic front sliding south by
Thursday evening. Models are showing a very similar pattern to the
last two winter weather events we`ve had in our CWA that produced
moderate snow. The one difference is the window of opportunity for
positive forcing is much smaller Thursday night, and moisture
advection  appears to be limited on GFS/ECMWF where soundings
barely saturate. Model QPF is much lower as would be expected in a
more progressive flow, so while I raised PoPs late Thursday
night, confidence in amounts is still low. Current consensus is
snow amounts around 0.5" to 1" mainly in our west. We should keep
an eye on this just from a pattern stand point, but for now it
appears to be a sub advisory event.

Friday-Sunday night: An active pattern continues through early
next week. Models show a transition from shortwave ridging Friday,
westerly flow Saturday, followed by southwest flow Sunday. The
next upper level trough and arctic push may move through our
region in the Sunday night through Monday night periods. We may
see another post frontal snow event with this arctic surge,
however GFS/ECMWF are varying on timing/evolution lowering
confidence (even considering the time range).


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1040 AM MST Mon Feb 12 2018

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK. A warm front is lifting north over NW Kansas into SW
Nebraska, and increasing southerly flow has resulted in windy
conditions at KGLD where gusts around 35kt have been observed.
Less wind is expected at KMCK during the afternoon today
(sustained 12-15kt). A few sprinkles, flurries, or virga will be
possible through 00Z as well at both terminals (left out of TAFs
due to coverage). After 00Z there will be a downward trend in
southerly winds, however winds above the surface remain strong and
this should result in a period of low level wind shear tonight.




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