Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
345 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Upper ridge axis shifts slightly eastward today but still remains
over the area resulting in above normal temperatures. Only
limiting factor will be cloud cover, which should erode west to
east through the day. So kept cooler temperatures in eastern areas
while northeast Colorado will warm well into the 60s. No fire
weather concerns today due to persistent southeast winds and
higher dew points. Low level moisture return overnight and weak
shortwave trough climbing the ridge will result in a few light
rain showers which may skirt the eastern part of the forecast
area late.

Large scale forcing gets underway Thursday afternoon with approach
of the deep system in the Four Corners which will emerge onto the
southern and central plains. Still considerable differences
between the models on the mesoscale set up for Thursday afternoon.
NAM has the dry line/surface trough near the Kansas and Colorado
border while GFS has it much further east near Hill City.
Instability axis will be along and east of wherever the dry line
sets up, with weak to moderate instability but excellent deep
layer shear. However, lower levels will be quite dry. Might see a
few severe storms with large hail and strong winds, but low
confidence on location. The other concern Thursday afternoon will
be fire weather. Lowest humidity and strongest winds will be in
northeast Colorado and adjacent counties in Kansas and Nebraska.

Instability gradually weakens Thursday evening with thunderstorm
threat diminishing, but attention shifts to precipitation type on
the back side Thursday night and Friday. NAM continues to be the
most aggressive model with rain changing to snow or a mix, and
possibly strong winds, as far east as Highway 25 by Friday morning.
Surface based layer will be above freezing, so even if a change
over occurs it will melt on contact, so little if any accumulation
anticipated at this point. However, will need to monitor the wind
speeds on Friday as the NAM suggests it will be close to high
wind warning criteria. Precipitation chances will continue into
Friday night with this slow moving, wound up system, with the
rain/snow line slowly moving eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

An active pattern continues in the extended, along with near to
above normal temperatures.

Precipitation chances exit the region at the start of the forecast
period, with only a slight chance of showers for the extreme eastern
portion of the area early Saturday morning. Shortwave ridging builds
in behind the system as it tracks east, bringing dry and warmer
weather to the High Plains for the remainder of the day.

Moisture increases on Sunday as a disturbance moves from the Great
Basin to the Plains. This quick moving wave generates rain shower
chances through the daytime hours before winding down Sunday night.

Flow aloft turns northwesterly on Monday as a shortwave ridge forms
once again between disturbances. This leads to a brief dry period,
followed by the return of precipitation Monday night and Tuesday
when a potentially strong system develops over the west coast. There
is a lot of variation among guidance at this point regarding the
timing and position, so will continue to monitor this system as
discrepancies are resolved.

Temperatures do not vary much throughout the extended period, with
highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s and lows in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

For Kgld...Through 16z, the winds will slowly shift from southeast
to south southeast at near 15 knots. Shortly after the start of
the period, vfr conditions will mvfr and continue until 16z. At
16z vfr conditions begin and continue through the rest of the
period. From 16z to 18z south southeast winds from 17 to 22 knots
with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Just after sunset those winds
decrease but will still be sustained near 18 knots with gusts to
26 knots.

For Kmck...Light rain showers near the site will quickly move to
the east shortly after the beginning of the forecast period. East
winds near 13 knots and vfr conditions will continue until 13z. At
13z, mvfr conditions develop as the winds shift to the southeast.
At 18z, vfr conditions return with southeast winds of 15 to 18
knots with gusts of 23 to 26 knots. At 02z, the winds lose their
gusts and remain sustained near 14 knots. Vfr conditions look to
continue through the end of the period however it will possible
that right before the end of the period that mvfr ceilings could


KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for COZ252>254.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NEZ079.



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