Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 242336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A DRY LINE WAS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT.

TONIGHT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE...TURNING TO THE WEST BY
SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S.

CHRISTMAS DAY THE LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNSET.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY...AND WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY WARM INTO THE LOW 50S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40.  FURTHER NORTH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES NORTH OF THE STATE
LINE.

DURING THE AFTERNOON THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  OVER FAR WESTERN
KIT CARSON AND YUMA COUNTIES THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE FROM THE
SURFACE UPWARD...WITH SOME LOCATIONS NOT SATURATING UP TO THE -10C
LEVEL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.  WITH NO ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN AND SOME WEAK LIFT OVER THESE
LOCATIONS...HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO THE WEAK LIFT PRESENT...EXPECT THERE TO BE
FROZEN FLECKS OF DRIZZLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AT BEST. OVER FAR
NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY ICE CRYSTALS WILL DEVELOP SO WILL HAVE THE
PRECIP. AS ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST UTAH
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST COLORADO 12Z FRIDAY.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY THE END OF THE DAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THE
LOW WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. ON SATURDAY
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR BEST 850-500 MOISTURE AND THUS HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. BY 00Z SATURDAY SOME
DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LOWERING PRECIP
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENT GENERALLY ONE HALF
INCH TO TWO INCHES...HIGHEST ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. COULD
SEE A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MID TEENS WEST TO LOW 20S EAST. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST THROUGH SOUTH
WHERE LOW TO MID TEENS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY UPPER
TEENS WEST TO MID 20S EAST THROUGH SOUTH. ON SATURDAY LOW 20S TO
AROUND 30.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY MOVES EAST
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER
IS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANCE FOR SNOW INCREASES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASING IN COVERAGE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND PLENTIFUL LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. CHANCE FOR SNOW DECREASES TUESDAY WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY QUICKLY DECREASES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY...TURNING DOWNRIGHT COLD IN THE
MID TO LATE PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES TO -
20F POSSIBLE. FOR TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
VALUES AS LOW AS -30F POSSIBLE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND/OR
WARNINGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
MCK. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12KT AFTER SUNSET AT BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH POSSIBILITY FOR INCREASING WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST-NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SURFACE TROUGH SHIFT EAST. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW) MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.