Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 171820
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1220 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE
FOR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OBS/REPORTS SHOWING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2SM OR LESS PROMPTING ISSUANCE THRU APPROX
15Z. SOME ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HOURLIES.
REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. DOWN CLOSER TO SURFACE
CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO THE EAST OF THE TRI STATE
REGION...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE IS PUSHING
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE UNITED STATES AS EVIDENT IN
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. LEE-SIDE TROUGH COMING THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION...WITH
MODELS STILL SHOWING 925/850 ENHANCEMENT OF SAID TROUGH.

BEFORE THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE OUT ACROSS OUR AREA...THE CWA IS
SEEING TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER EASTERN ZONES
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS GIVING
WAY TO ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY/MSUNNY DAY. GENERAL SSW FLOW WILL
BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. SOME MID/HIGH CLDS
COULD BEGIN TO STREAM INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
FROM THE OUTER EDGE OF ODILE REMNANTS....AND THUS COULD HOLD TEMPS
DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE COMBO OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ITS
850/925 COMPONENTS PUSH WELL INTO THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE
ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SSW. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A BAND OF -RW/-
TRW TO START UP ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIDE/PIVOT A
BIT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK EAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF REGION DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO BROAD NW FLOW OF UPPER RIDGE IN ROCKIES...BUT IT IS THE SLOW SFC
NUDGE EASTWARD OF ODILE LOW THAT WILL ALLOW BRIEF PIVOT WEST THEN
BACK EAST AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F. SOME
PATCHY/AREAS FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCALES CLOSEST TO EXPECTED
PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS
AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUING THE WARM TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THURSDAY AFTER PRECIP/CLDS CLR REGION
WILL BE DECENT SUMMER-LIKE DAY...AND TRANSLATE INTO A WARM
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS MAIN WX FEATURE. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS DO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RW/TRW TO
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN
ZONES CLOSEST TO ODILE REMNANTS...DUE TO ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO
THE MID 60S...WARMEST EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER HIGH TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES THE SYSTEM ALONG FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON TUESDAY BUT THE TYPICAL LOW PREDICTABILITY
WITH THESE TYPE SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT MEANS THAT ADJUSTMENTS WILL MAY
BE NEEDED. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A COLD FRONT/SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DOWN CLOSER TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WARMTH LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY
TOWARD TUESDAY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...THE PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL AREA DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE.

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S CONTINUES
ACROSS THE KMCK AREA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KMCK AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-MORNING THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NC KANSAS INTO SW NEBRASKA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO LOCATION AND IMPACT ON KMCK
TERMINAL WITH BETTER COVERAGE SEEN FURTHER EAST. CONVECTION WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME IF IT DOES DEVELOP NEAR
THE TERMINAL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...DLF



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