Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 111020
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
320 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 316 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

Forecast concerns will be impacts today from storm system exiting
the area, the next chance of precipitation Friday, and high
temperature forecast through the period. Satellite showing a
progressive flow through most of the Pacific. This transitions to a
more amplified flow from along the west coast of North America into
the western Atlantic. Strong/dynamic system is moving toward the
east away from the area. Very cold air mass is pouring into the area
with an extensive cold air mass extending into central and western
Canada.

At jet level...models started out fine, especially the strong jet to
the west. At mid levels...models looked to start out fine. The Nam
and Canadian looked to be doing a little better on the low level
thermal field.

Today/tonight...Snow should be done by the start of the period. The
main issue to deal with will be the wind and how much it blows the
snow that has fallen. Still very strong winds not too far above
ground and those winds do not decrease until late in the morning.

At this time the highest snow cover looks to be over the north
central into the eastern portion of the area. The surface ridge
moves in during the night with light winds lasting the longest over
the eastern portion of the area. However during the night, mid and
upper level cloud cover will start increasing across the area. At
this time expect the coldest temperatures to be in that area.
However will not go as cold as the coldest guidance due to the
influx of cloud cover.

Friday/Friday night...Rather strong shortwave trough in northwest
flow aloft will move through the area during the day. Models however
do not have a very strong mesoscale forcing/strong baroclinic zone.
The theta-e lapse rates are not negative but barely above zero.
Complex jet structure/model disagreement with the main jet axis to
the west and south of the area. Considering the above parameters,
the slight chance to low chance pops across the far north and east
during the day look reasonable. Whatever precipitation falls looks
to be done by late in the afternoon. Expect little if any
accumulation of snow.

There will be extensive cloud cover at multiple levels, especially
in the northeast portion, through the day. This combined with
continued cold air over the eastern portions plus another
reinforcing short of cold air moving in from late in the morning
into the afternoon will make for a tricky temperature forecast with
a big gradient across the area expected.

Saturday/Saturday night...Models at mid and especially upper levels
come into more disagreement during this period. It looks like the
left front quadrant moves across during the day with some kind of
jet lift or position of the axis near or over the area during the
night.

There looks to be a lot of mid and upper level cloud cover around
through the day. Arctic air mass looks to be entrenched across the
area, especially in the eastern half to two thirds of the area.
There is a large spread in the guidance for the area, especially in
the western third of the area with another huge gradient across the
area expected. Tended to lower guidance a little due to the cloud
cover and models poor handling of shallow cold air masses.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 155 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2018

North-Northwest flow aloft will remain in place Sunday and
Monday, with an amplified ridge over the western US and a longwave
trough over the eastern US. A clipper rounding the western edge
of a closed upper low (centered just north of the Great Lakes)
will rotate through this flow Sunday night and Monday, with a
period of light snow possible over our CWA. Due to the
progressive nature of this system and weak moisture advection,
coverage and amounts may be limited. This will also send a
reinforcing shot of arctic air to the Central High Plains, and we
should see sub freezing highs once again for much of our CWA
Monday after above normal highs (near 50) on Sunday.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Western US ridge transitions eastward, with
general mid-upper flow over our CWA transitioning to a westerly
direction Wednesday. Dry conditions will be favored, with
increasing temperatures from west to east. There could be a large
spread in highs/lows over our CWA Tuesday as arctic air lingers in
our east and downslope/lee troughing aide WAA in our west (a
10-20F spread west to east). Overnight lows Monday night may be as
low as zero in our far east. By Wednesday there should be more
moderation across our CWA due westerly flow and highs will be
closer to seasonal values in our east (near 40F) and above normal
in the 50s across our west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1000 PM MST Wed Jan 10 2018

IFR conditions due to snow and blowing snow will occur the first
few hours of the TAF period at both KGLD and KMCK. Radar trends
show the back edge of the snow band progressing west to east out
of Colorado, so expecting the snow to end during the overnight
hours. However, surface winds will be slower to diminish, so
patchy blowing snow may persist into Thursday morning. Expecting
a return to VFR no later than 12z at both terminals.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ this morning
     for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-042.

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for COZ090.

NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ this morning
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...024



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