Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 120916
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
216 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

Difficult forecast regarding coverage and extent of clouds, fog,
freezing fog, visibilities and temperatures.

At 0330z low clouds extend from near McCook to Colby to north of
Tribune with a clear sky to the west. Areas in the clear are below
freezing and starting to get dense freezing fog.

Right now trended temperature/dewpoint forecast to the RUC which
has a pretty good handle on things and for visibility the rap13
and gfslampgrid visibility forecasts. Basically dense fog/freezing
fog is expected to expand east/northeast tonight then dissipate a
bit across the west toward morning. Models are showing another
batch of low visibilities moving south into the area during the
mid to late morning hours which may have to be dealt with with
some type of advisory.

Anyway, dense fog advisory is published and out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

Forecast problem will continue to be the stubborn saturated low
level air mass that remains across the area. As has been the case
the last week, models have had trouble in resolving the low level
thermal and moisture fields. Weak surface low with its associated
boundary was located to our southeast. This kept weak north to
northeast winds across the forecast area today. This setup kept
the saturated low level air mass over the area. Clearing line to
the west has been creeping slowly east due to lack of a strong
downslope component.

At this time it looks like the clearing line barely makes it to
the east of the Colorado border. Then the moisture moves back to
the west once again. High resolution guidance is consistent in
redeveloping stratus and fog but disagrees on how far west to put the
next round of fog. At this time am thinking the Nam may be a
little too far east with the Hrrr a little better.

The general consensus is to develop fog along and east of the
Colorado border and move it slowly east through tomorrow morning
before dissipating it. Some dense fog looks possible again but
models disagree on where. So will not issue an advisory and will
let the evening shift take another look at it. Forecast soundings
and high resolution guidance would support some patchy drizzle in
the eastern third and inserted that into the forecast.

The stratus looks like it may last into the afternoon which will
wreak havoc on the temperature forecast and probably make for a
wide range of high temperatures. All in all the temperatures look
near to slightly cooler than todays maxes.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

Breezy and mostly dry weather will dominate the extended period.
Zonal flow will prevail at the H5 level Wednesday and Thursday as
a ridge flattens and pushes eastward. Upper flow will be
westerly. Dry conditions are expected both days. A fast-moving
cold front will move through the region on Friday, bringing a very
brief chance of showers or mixed precipitation that will remain
mainly north of Interstate 70. The best chances for precipitation
will be between 12Z and 18Z Friday along and trailing the theta-e
axis associated with the front. Breezy west to northwest winds
will follow the front. Westerly flow aloft will shift to
northwesterly behind the front and will prevail through at least
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 935 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

KGLD, vlifr conditions expected from taf issuance through about
08z. After 09z northwest winds up to 10kts look to move in and
should push stratus out of the area with vfr conditions returning.
This will last through about 13z before another batch of low
clouds and fog move down from the north creating at least ifr
conditions if not worse through 16z. After 17z should see vfr
conditions return with winds eventually becoming southeast under
10kts.

KMCK, currently have cigs flirting with mvfr category at taf
issuance with higher confidence by mid morning Sunday for a few
hours. Wouldnt be surprised for mvfr cigs to develop before 16z
and could bounce in and out of vfr/mvfr category. After 21z winds
become light from the south with vfr conditions expected.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM MST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     KSZ002-003-014-015-028-029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99



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