Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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799
FXUS63 KGLD 241148
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
548 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 541 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Just completed an update. Convectively induced circulation has
caused the coverage of thunderstorms to increase over the eastern
portion of my Kansas counties. No model has anything going on
there right now. A couple of the models show this circulation at
700 mb and used that plus radar trends to adjust pops and raise
qpf.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 344 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Main forecast issue will be thunderstorm chances through the period.
Satellite showing an amplified pattern over the Pacific. This
transitions a flat ridge over the southern half of the country with
progressive flow over the northern half. Cold front is moving
through the area at this time. Moisture has decreased through mid
levels.

At jet level...the gfs doing a little better than the Nam and Ecmwf.
At mid levels...overall the Canadian and the Gfs were doing the
best. One area of concern was that the models were too fast/deep
with incoming shortwave moving in from the northwest portion of the
country. Canadian was better here. Models still tend to not have
heights high enough with the southern ridge into our area. The Nam
by far was doing the best on the surface wind and pressure pattern.
The Canadian and Sref were doing a little better than the Gfs and
Nam on the low level thermal field.

Today/tonight...There may be ongoing thunderstorms this morning as
the front moves through. By mid morning they should be done. Then it
should stay dry/quiet until mid to late afternoon. Front looks to be
south of our area but may not be too far south. Also a shortwave
trough begins to move in from the west about the same. A right rear
quadrant will be near the northern portion of the area from late in
the afternoon into the overnight hours.

So for the afternoon to account for this will have slight chance
along my southeastern border with slight chance to low chance in the
far west. The main time for thunderstorms looks to be during the
night, especially in the evening. The main shortwave trough looks to
go across the southwest quadrant. After remarkable disagreement the
last few days, the models, especially the convective allowing models
are showing remarkable agreement on the main area to be affected,
the southwest portion. However there are some differences in speed.

So felt confident to raise pops in the southwest to high chance, and
if the convective allowing models are correct the pops may need to
be raised more. Rainfall should gradually exit the area in the
overnight hours. High temperatures look about 10 degrees cooler from
the past few days. Made only slight adjustments.

Monday/Monday night...There looks to be some lingering storms in
the far east through mid morning and left a slight chance there. The
remainder of the day looks dry as any surface focus looks to be to
the south and west of the area as heights rise/shortwave ridge
develops over the area. Southeast winds develop over the area as the
next leave trough develops. High temperatures look similar to todays
and that makes considering the easterly component.

Am not very optimistic about precipitation Monday night. Weak lift
remains in place through the entire night with maybe a little better
lift around later into the evening and maybe the overnight hours.
Inherited slight chance pops and that should be fine for now. The
potential is there but the models have been overdoing precipitation
in this scenario.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Most of the day looks quiet. Heights rise
with shortwave ridging over the area most of the day. Also there
looks to be no surface focus over the area. A shortwave trough moves
in from the west. It looks to be a decent strength however once
again a lot of convective feedback is going on. So at this time
inserted a slight chance in the far western portion in the afternoon
and then have chance pops in for the night.

This looks to be the warmest day of the three. The warm air
advection actually begins on Monday night. Southerly winds will
bring much warmer with plenty of sun to help out. High temperatures
should make into the lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

At the beginning of the extended period the upper level pattern becomes
more amplified over the northern Rockies as the high pressure center
aloft retrogrades towards the west over the desert southwest region.
This will result in a longwave trough to deepen and move eastward
across the plains as the high builds. A few short wave disturbances
are expected to move along this upper level flow in a Northwest to
Southeast trajectory. This will produce chance of showers and
thunderstorms throughout the period, with Friday night having the
highest possibility of precipitation.

Along with the possibilities of precipitation throughout the
long term, the Tri-State region will continue to see temperatures
in the near normal to somewhat above normal range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 541 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

At this time vfr conditions are expected through the period. This
mornings convection is expected to stay to the east of both sites.
For Kgld...easterly surface winds of at least 8 to 13 knots will
prevail through the evening before becoming light. A thunderstorm
complex is expected to move out of eastern Colorado early this
evening. It will be close but the site looks to be on the eastern
edge of the complex at this time. Due to the closeness and
uncertainty that far out...chose to put vcts in from 02z to 05z.
Possible that tsra mention made need to be added in later
forecasts.

For Kmck...in addition to this mornings convection being east of
the site...thunderstorms tonight are expected not to affect the
site. Winds will remain easterly with some gustiness expected
later this afternoon into early this evening.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BULLER



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