Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 102121
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
221 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...skies continue to
remain mainly sunny with a few locales seeing msunny conditions as
high clouds filter thru the area. A surface trough over the area is
providing a steady wind mainly from the southwest...especially for
locales west of Highway 25. These areas are seeing gustS reaching up
to 25 mph at times. These overall conditions over the area are
affording the region another great above normal day...with highs in
the mid to upper 50s.

Going into tonight...mainly clear skies expected at the
onset...becoming more mostly cloudy as the veil of mid/high clouds
thickens up. With the T/Td spread being quite large thanks to
today`s nice warmup...sunset will bring on a quick reversal to area
temps. Radiational cooling conditions will ensue for several hours
before the blanket of mid/high clouds works into the region.
With this...going for overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s.

For Wednesday...cloud cover remains over the CWA. A cold front over
Nebraska will begin to trek south into the region by midday. Model
timing of this front has meandered within a few hours of midday in
past few runs. With this approaching from the north...locales
especially north of Interstate 70 will see early highs...dropping
thru the afternoon hrs as the front traverses. Warmest areas will
remain along our southern border due to slow movement of the front.
With this...expecting a wide range in daytime highs that will range
from the mid/upper 30s along the northern tier...to the 40s in
locales near/along Interstate 70...to the 50s for the southern tier
zones. Not expecting any precip with this frontal passage due to low
level dry air in place.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2017

Main focus for this period will be the next chance for precipitation
Friday through Monday morning.  Current model data is continuing to
suggest a potential for freezing rain to fall over the southeast
half of the Tri-State Area Friday night through Saturday night.
there is still uncertainty as far as how far north into the Tri-
State Area the freezing rain will extent. The primary precipitation
type will be snow with accumulations of only a couple inches.

Thursday night low stratus will begin to move in behind the cold
front from Wednesday.  Currently looks like the stratus will be too
shallow for any freezing drizzle to occur.

Friday afternoon low level moisture begins to increase over the far
southeast portion of the forecast area ahead of the deepening upper
level low to the south.  With no ice in the column am anticipating
some light freezing drizzle to occur over the far southeast portion
of the area.  Lift will be weak at this point, so am not
anticipating much if any accumulation of ice; a glaze at best.

Saturday and Sunday lift spreads northward as the closed low
approaches from the south.  Currently looks like there will be
several brief rounds of precipitation, with the lift increasing with
each round, and little to no precipitation expected between each
round. The freezing rain may spread over the southeast third to half
of the Tri-State Area on Saturday.  The primary uncertainty is how
far north will the freezing rain occur before transitioning to snow.
Currently do not have much confidence with how far north the
freezing rain will be due to disagreement in model data and due to
this being four days away.  Any freezing rain will transition to
snow from north to south Saturday night as the warm nose responsible
for the freezing rain shifts east out of the area.  By the time the
lift reaches a peak the precipitation should have changed to all
snow.  The snow will continue through Monday morning before ending
as the closed low moves east of the Tri-State Area.

Impacts...
Based on the lack of any deep, strong lift prior to
Saturday night when the precipitation will be all snow, am not
anticipating more than a few hundredths of an inch of ice
accumulation.  If this does occur, even the very small amount of ice
would make the roadways icy but not undrivable.  The threat for ice
increases to the southeast over Southwest Kansas.  If the closed low
slows down further, the Tri-State Area will have a better chance for
freezing rain.

The wind with the snow will be light snow any blowing snow will be
to a minimum.  Due to the couple rounds of stronger, deeper lift
being short-lived, am not anticipating more than a couple inches of
snow occurring with this event.  However if this closed low does
continue to deepen further and slow down, snowfall amounts will
increase.

Model analysis...
The GFS has continued to indicate a closed low
deepening over east New Mexico by Sunday morning for the last two
days or so. With each model run the closed low becomes deeper.  The
deeper the low becomes, the slower it will move and the more water
vapor and warmer air it will channel over Kansas ahead of it.  Am
wondering if the closed low is moving too fast from Northern Mexico
to east New Mexico which would affect the precipitation types,
possibly giving the Tri-State Area a better chance for freezing rain.

The ECMWF is in good agreement with the track the GFS has, and has
been fairly consistent with the placement of the low over the last
several model runs.  Due to the coarser nature of vertical data
distribution, hard to compare the ECMWF to the GFS as far as how far
north or south the warm nose is Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1022 AM MST Tue Jan 10 2017

Conditions...VFR with SCT-BKN200-250.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Wind.........For KGLD...WSW around 10kts thru 14z Wednesday...
becoming NW around 10kts 14z-16z Wednesday. 16z Wednesday
onward...N around 10kts. For KMCK...WNW around 10kts thru 20z this
afternoon. From 20z Tuesday thru 14z Wednesday WSW around 10kts.
14z Wednesday onward...NNW around 10kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



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