Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 202157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
257 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 231 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...temperatures are ranging
widely this morning from the mid 20s up to the lower 30s w/ mainly
clear skies and light winds.

Going into more nice above normal day for temps is set
for the area with the remnants of the upper ridge slowly breaking
down ahead of a storm system for the latter half of the weekend. Low
pressure at the surface will aid in bringing in some WAA into the
region allowing for daytime highs to reach mainly into the 50s...w/
some lower 60s possible over SW zones.

For tonight and on thru Sunday night...this timeframe will be the
main wx concern for the area. A storm system working east from the
west coast will enter the central Rockies later tonight...close off
and work eastward into the central Plains Sunday and Sunday night.
Models fairly close to consistency on its track w/ latest runs. Cold
air working into the region tonight onward will bring about wintry
precip. Low level moisture working into the region tonight will
overspread the region going into Sunday. This will allow some light
freezing rain to start over the area...transitioning to snowfall as
Sunday progresses. Expected low track will allow for heaviest snow
totals along and north of Interstate 70 at this time.

Also of concern will be the strong northerly winds that will
accompany the expected snowfall from midday Sunday onward. Latest
guidance suggest sustained 30-40 mph with gusts to 50 mph. These
strong winds will create near blizzard-like conditions thru Sunday

With these expected conditions for the region...have upgraded the
entire CWA to a Winter Storm Warning from 06z Sunday thru 12z
Monday. Snowfall totals will range from 3-7" along and south of
Interstate 70...with 5-8" (and locally higher amounts near 10+
inches)north of the Interstate. This snowfall combined with expected
winds and light glaze of ice will have a big impact for the region.

Please stay tuned for further updates as any slight change in the
track of the storm will have a big impact on area conditions.

Region clears fairly quickly going into Monday/Monday night with
high pressure returning to the area.

For temps...highs Sunday in the lower to mid 30s will give way to 35-
45F on Monday. Overnight lows in the teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 254 PM MST
Sat Jan 20 2018

High pressure begins to move into the region as the storm system
moves further out of the area Monday night through Tuesday night
and the upper western U.S. ridge moving across the Rockies and
High Plains regions on Wednesday and Thursday.

The lee trough deepens over the high plains on Thursday night into
mid day Friday ahead of the next larger scale upper trough to affect
the forecast area between Friday and Saturday.  Ahead of this next
system, daytime highs are expected to rise into the 40s and 50s with
lows mainly in the 20s.  Friday could see a light mix of rain and
snow with a transition to all snow Friday evening as temperatures
drop below freezing. The system continues to pass through high
plains into the central plains as an open wave on Saturday and
Saturday night with much of the system dynamics circumnavigating the
forecast area. Therefore only expect light rain/snow accumulations
at this point between mid day on Friday and late Friday evening.
High temperatures on Saturday will be back down in the 30s with
lows in the teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1036 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

Winter storm to impact the TAFs during the latter half of the
18-18Z TAF period.

Both GLD and MCK will start out VFR with only high clouds through
the remainder of this afternoon and into this evening. After 05Z,
lower clouds with MVFR ceilings begin to spread across the
central high plains region with light northeast winds. Ceilings
will continue to lower through the overnight hours with
intermittent IFR conditions between 06-08Z and IFR to LIFR
conditions after 08Z. There may be instances of light freezing
drizzle after 08Z that transitions to light snow by 15Z, but
confidence is low on freezing precipitation. Have gone with a
prevailing light snow across the area along with gusty north
northeast winds after 15Z Sunday morning.


KS...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ this evening
     to 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-

CO...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Monday
     for COZ090>092.

NE...Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ this evening
     to 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Monday for NEZ079>081.



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