Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 092026
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
126 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. MODELS...EVEN SMALLER
SCALE OUTPUT...IS HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE TEMPERATURE...MOISTURE
AND WIND FIELDS DUE TO THE AFFECTS OF THE LINGERING SNOWFIELD.
FIRST FOR TONIGHT...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO COOL DESPITE THE
SNOWFIELD. PER TRENDS...BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE...AND CLUSTERING
OF DEPICTED TEMPERATURES...DID MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES.

TODAY HAVE NEAR A 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN MAXES. MID TO UPPER 50S
ARE IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN
DEPICTED TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON IF A MODEL DOES OR DOES NOT
TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW ON THE GROUND. BASED ON THE BETTER
INITIALIZED LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS AND THE RECENT BETTER
FORMING GUIDANCE...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY UP SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S
IN THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A BACK-DOOR FRONT PUSHING IN BY LATE-DAY FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BEGINS
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS AHEAD OF A THROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DURING THE SAME TIME. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT TIMINGS OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING IT ACROSS EARLY SUNDAY WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
INCREASES. EXPECT TO SEE COOLER...NEAR NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS WHILE THE WESTERN SECTIONS WILL SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL
ON THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER PATTERN PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE ALSO MOVES EAST WHILE
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ALSO PUSHES EAST...PUSHING THE COOLER AIR TO
THE EAST AND BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW IS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS DEEPEN
AND MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AROUND KMCK
CEILINGS WILL BE 6 TO 7K UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO WEST AROUND 10
KNOTS DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER


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