Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 191738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1138 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Issued at 848 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Updated the winds for the afternoon. Based on the stronger winds
have included three more counties in the red flag warning.

Models have extended the area of breezy winds further southeast
compared to yesterday. This gave the needed confidence for
expanding the current warning. Due to the record/near record
warmth today, should not have much trouble mixing the breezy winds
to the ground. Almost included Rawlins/Red Willow counties, but
the stronger winds are not over these two counties for more than
an hour or two, and there is some doubt as to how much of the
county would be impacted by the stronger winds.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are mainly clear w/
some high cloud pushing thru mainly northern portions of the
forecast area. Temperatures are currently above normal for mid-March
with a range of mid 40s...up to lower 50s in some locales. Winds are
mainly SSE as region still lies out ahead of lee-side trough which
is slowly working east off the Front Range.

Going into today...the lee-side trough will play role in wx for the
region today. As the system slides eastward into western Kansas thru
the day...expecting southerly flow to shift to a NW direction. With
decent zonal flow at H5/H7...the wind shift...and subsequent
downslope the surface will continue to enhance
drying over the region resulting in yet another day of low RH
readings. Most of the area from Highway 83 westward will see a 10-15
percent range...with areas east in a 16-24 percent range. With the
wind shift to NW by the afternoon...some gusty conditions possible
especially in NW zones allowing for increased fire wx conditions.
Please refer to Fire Wx section below. For highs today...with 850
temps still ranging in the +20c to +25C range for the afternoon hrs
looking for temps to hit the mid to upper 80s. Some locales may top
the 90F mark. Please refer to the climate section below for info on
potential records for the area.

For the timeframe of tonight on thru Tuesday night...breakdown of
upper ridging to allow for the passage of a couple shortwaves and
accompanying surface boundaries. Dry conditions with increasing
cloud cover are on tap for tonight into Monday...with shortwave
passage going into Monday night thru Tuesday night. With models
still keeping strong ridging to our qpf for these
system is expected. Based on track of these and timing...looking for
light rain to be main p-type...with some transition to a light snow
mix by Tuesday night as colder air wraps into the region on backside
of shortwave. No accumulation is expected.

The passage of these systems/fronts will bring a drop in temps from
what the area has seen over the past several days. Daytime highs
Monday will only reach into the 70s...warmest south ahead of
front...while on Tuesday mainly 50s are on tap. Overnight lows will
drop from the 40s tonight to the lower and mid 30s by Tuesday night.

Only other wx issues for the short term will be the potential for
patchy fog development this morning and again Monday morning for
eastern zones based off of model BL moisture.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 142 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Will start the period under southwest flow ahead of a system in
the Four Corners area. Might see scattered showers on Wednesday
associated with any weak wave in that flow. Main upper feature
will be approaching the central Rockies on Thursday and move
across the adjacent high plains area Thursday night and Friday.
Still considerable differences between the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS
is more open and faster, with less precipitation and more
northerly track, while the ECMWF is slower, developing a closed
low over southwest Kansas, resulting in considerable wraparound
precipitation, possibly as light snow. Until the models can come
into some kind of agreement, will be carrying pops Wednesday
night through Saturday morning in the low to mid range, with a
mention of rain or snow in deference to the ECMWF scenario, and
thunder in deference to the GFS, which has up to 1000 j/kg of
sbcape and deep layer shear of 60-70kts, suggesting at least a low
end severe threat will be possible on Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Breezy northwest winds will
become light by the early evening. Am less optimistic about the
fog tonight due to the lack of a shallow saturated layer
developing at the surface at 12z. The winds will turn from the
northwest to the northeast Monday morning as a backdoor cold front
moves through.


Issued at 223 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Today: For locales across Yuma county CO and Dundy county NE...low
RH readings near 10-11 percent will accompany the warm weather
today. By this afternoon winds will shift from the south to the
northwest with gusts in the 20 to 30mph range...prompting the
issuance of a Red Flag Warning.


Issued at 223 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Daily high temperature records may be tied or broken across the
Tri-State Region Today.

Current Daily Records Sunday March 19:

Goodland.....90F in 1907
McCook.......87F in 2004
Burlington...93F in 1921
Hill City....89F in 1921
Colby........90F in 1921
Tribune......83F in 1972
Yuma.........79F in 2007


KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ001.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252-253.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for



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