Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 151131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
431 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 149 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

Warm and dry conditions will persist across the central high
plains region during the short term period.

The ridge currently over the northern Rockies will remain the
dominant feature affecting the weather across the central high
plains region over the next couple days. The apex of the upper
ridge in the northern branch of the upper flow translates over the
northern plains and decreases in amplitude while a low center in
the southern branch emerges over west Texas by late Thursday. Both
of those features continue to move eastward over the eastern
plains on Friday and Friday night as a short wave trough in the
wake of the upper ridge lifts out across the northern plains and a
ridge begins to redevelop over the rockies and high plains region
Friday night. A weak lee surface trough remains generally in
place along the front range and high plains and moves east across
the central high plains on Friday in response to the upper trough
lifting out across the region late Friday. The airmass remains
very dry through this period with no precipitation expected.

Warmer than average temperatures will continue through the short
term forecast period across the central high plains region.
Minimum afternoon relative humidity values each day between
today and Friday will be 20% or less. While such low relative
humidity values normally favor elevated fire weather conditions,
current projected wind speeds should remain below 15 mph each
day, which will help prevent fire weather conditions from
becoming critical.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

Upper ridge will continue the mild and dry conditions on Saturday.
An upper disturbance in the desert southwest will move into the
southern plains Sunday and Monday. The track is considerably
further south than previous model solutions. Nonetheless, low
level moisture return and weak upper forcing may result in
scattered light rain showers during that time period, then drying
out on Tuesday as it moves east. Temperatures will remain above


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 423 AM MST Wed Feb 15 2017

At MCK and GLD, VFR conditions with clear skies are expected with
light west winds turning southwest after 21Z and west northwest
after 09Z as a weak lee surface trough deepens along the front
range today and moves east across the central high plains




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