Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 121711
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1011 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 229 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

Upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will retrograde just a
bit over the next couple of days, then rebuild towards the end of
the week. As a result, will get into more of northwest flow regime
with a couple of embedded shortwave troughs/surface frontal
passages, but no precipitation expected. Temperatures will be
above normal today and tomorrow, then slightly above normal on
Thursday behind the stronger front.

Otherwise, main concern through the short term period will be
fire weather. Today, a surface trough will drift across eastern
Colorado this afternoon and into northwest Kansas tonight. Winds
will be relatively light near the trough axis, so not expecting
much wind today, but humidity values will drop to less than 20
percent in the afternoon. On Wednesday, will see winds increase as
a cold front approaches late in the day. Expecting gusts in the
30-40 mph range with humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent
range, a combination that will result in elevated fire weather
conditions. Thursday will once again be windy, particularly in
eastern Colorado/adjacent counties in Kansas and Nebraska with a
45-50kt wind max at 700mb during the afternoon moving into the
area. However, humidity values will only reach 30 to 40 percent,
so only a small threat of elevated fire weather conditions due to
the wind and dry fuels.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

No real changes in the extended period from the last few write ups.
Dry condition and above normal temperatures will continue into next
week with a few breezy days included. Even though the models are
showing a couple of upper level troughs, with their associated
surface fronts, moving across the region over the weekend; the
environment is too dry to support any significant impact other than
an increase in cloud cover.

Afternoon high temperatures will maintain in the upper 50s to lower
60s throughout the period with the exception of Sunday, which looks

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1010 AM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

VFR conditions will once again rule through the TAF period. Expect
light W to WNW winds at ~10 knots this afternoon through tonight,
however, winds will shift to the NNW (320-340 degrees) and
abruptly increase to 25G35KT at the end of the TAF period (15-18Z
Wed) as the MSLP gradient tightens/low-level flow strengthens on
the western periphery of a shortwave /attendant sfc low/ digging
SE from the Dakotas to the central/northern MS river valley.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...VINCENT



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