Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 252339
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
539 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Added patchy fog mention after 06-9Z tonight through 13-15Z
Monday morning. As surface front lifts tonight low level moisture
increases, so while winds shift to a less favorable direction
guidance is supporting stratus/fog. Fog signal isn`t consistent on
location, but most models are showing pockets of reduced
visibilities over at least portions of our CWA (particularly NW KS
based on RAP/HRRR). Reason for inconsistency could be due to
differences in mixing from potential showers/thunderstorms or
lingering sky cover (fog may be more likely on back edge of
stratus deck near CO state line where there is better radiational
conditions).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...mainly mostly cloudy
skies prevail as the area lies on the north side of a frontal
boundary. The lingering cloud cover this afternoon is playing a key
role in daytime temps. Any breaks showing up are allowing for a
several degree bump up. But with the entire CWA not seeing this
benefit...a wide range in temps has developed from the upper 50s to
near 70f. ESE winds are prevalent over the area with gusts still
near 20 mph in spots. Scattered showers are still working into the
area from the NW and should continue thru the remainder of the day.

Going into tonight...a shift of the surface ridge north and east of
the region along with surface trough over the Rockies...will allow
for the front over NW Kansas to meander thru the region and
eventually end up near eastern zones by Monday morning. Models show
enough weak instability to warrant mention of trw/rw...especially
for eastern portions of the CWA. With PW values still near and inch
for many locales...locally heavy rainfall could occur with any
convective development. Looking for overnight lows in the lower to
mid 50s.

For Monday...southerly flow with decent WAA returns to the region.
NW downslope H5/H7 winds will bring the CWA lower to mid 80s for
daytime highs. Isolated/scattered storms could develop thru the
day...and with the remnants of today`s front still meandering over
the region...instability could bring about potential severe for the
afternoon hrs...especially for eastern zones. SPC does have the
region under a Marginal Risk.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Moisture levels will increase on Tuesday ahead of a H7 shortwave
that will traverse the CWA through the afternoon. CAPE values will
climb to near 2500 J/Kg as a relatively strong theta-e boundary sets
up in eastern Colorado and moves eastward through the early
afternoon. There will be good moisture return as 850 mb winds will
be southeasterly at 45 knots (GFS) with mixing ratios increasing to
near 12 g/kg by 00Z. Deep layer shear will be greatest directly
along the boundary with values in the 35 to 50 knot range. There
will be a brief window of opportunity for severe thunderstorms to
form along this boundary during the afternoon. With the 0-1 km shear
approaching 17 to 25 knots and 0-3 km shear of 45-50 knots (GFS),
this will be a favorable environment for supercells, especially east
of the KS/CO border. Thunderstorm activity will push east through
the late afternoon and evening, moving out of the area overnight.

There will be another chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday and again
on Thursday as weak shortwaves move across the region each day.
Forcing will be quite weak on Wednesday; however, there will be a
stationary theta-e boundary in place across the easternmost counties
of the CWA which could provide a focus for strong to severe
thunderstorm development on Thursday.

A very weak cold front will move through the area late Thursday and
early Friday. Another mention of slight chc to chc PoPs are in the
forecast on Friday due to lingering weak instability. Low level
return flow will increase out of the southeast as we head into
Saturday, increasing moisture levels and instability ahead of the
next shortwave that will move across the region Saturday night and
early Sunday morning. A favorable environment will set up on
Saturday night for elevated strong convection as long as forcing
from the shortwave is sufficient. Will need to see more consistency
in the guidance before increasing PoPs beyond slgt chc to chc.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 536 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Pocket of IFR stratus is lingering near KGLD, and this should lift
to MVFR early in the TAF period. VFR conditions are projected to
prevail at KMCK, but this will need to be monitored stratus/fog is
less certain further north. Guidance is showing at least MVFR
stratus lingering through Monday morning at KGLD, and there is
increasing support for reduced visibilities at KGLD starting in the
06-09Z window and continuing through 13-15Z. Prevailing visibilities
are uncertain due to lack of consistent signal, but confidence was
high enough to lower vis in mentioned period to 4sm. Winds will
remain below 12kt through the TAF period.

Shower/thunderstorms can`t be ruled out this evening or overnight,
however chances are decreasing and mention has been left out. Will
monitor near term trends. There may be another round of
showers/thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening, but coverage is
still uncertain.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR



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