Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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062
FXUS63 KFGF 200002
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
702 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Severe weather ongoing in northeast ND vcnty Minto through Grafton...
should bleed across into northwest MN shortly. Watch in effect til
11pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Convection will be the challenge for the early afternoon as
instability continues to fight an H700 warm layer. A storm west of
Devils Lake in the vicinity of a more localized area of nil MLCIN
is moving into warmer air aloft and increasing MLCIN, however how
much this will weaken over the next couple of hours is still in
question as a well defined vort max moves east north of the
border. Thinking has been convection would stay north of the
border where the cap is weaker...however will put scattered storms
along and north of Highway 2 for the remainder of the afternoon.

Models have shown increasing potential for nocturnal activity
developing across southern Manitoba and moving into northern
Minnesota, where we are maintain a chance for storms however have
pushed pushed those chance POPs further east closer to the 10 to
12 DEG H700 temps.

Dew points have risen into the low 70s about as expected and as
full solar tomorrow will heat up a warm boundary layer that will
bring heat indices to near the 100 degree mark by tomorrow
afternoon. There are no plans to change headlines for the
excessive heat watch that goes into affect tomorrow, however the
far southern valley has be best chance of seeing heat indices near
105 degrees, or the excessive heat warning criteria. Feeling is
areas from Fargo north and within the valley will see advisory
criteria with indices between 100 and 105, with potential for
higher indices further south.

Another round of storms is possible as another short wave embedded
in the upper ridge moves across the area tomorrow, with the main
inhibitor once again being mid level temps and the strength of the
waves ability to break the cap. Temperatures should fall below 70
degrees during the night, however the hot and humid conditions
will return on Thursday when more headlines (advisory/warning)
will likely be needed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Models in general agreement for this forecast period and went with a
blended soln. The Thursday night and early Friday time frame should
be quiet and remain warm as the H5 ridge stays over the area. By
Friday evening...will see an area of low pressure develop across the
western Dakotas with southerly flow pumping more heat and moisture
across the area. As the wave traverses the forecast area on
Saturday...will see increased chances for showers and storms.
Slightly cooler temps will move south across the area behind the low
by Sunday.  Slightly cooler temps will remain...along with some
scattered showers through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

General VFR conditions with scattered areas MVFR cigs and vsbys in
strong to severe TS across northeast ND and northwest MN through
04z. VFR cigs with isold TS possible eastward from TVF through BJI
after 04Z... with fair skies in eastern ND. Expect clearing skies
in northwest and northcentral MN after 08z.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NDZ027-030-039-049-052-053.

MN...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for MNZ001>003-015-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Gust



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