Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180440
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1140 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

TEMPERATURES NOT DROPPING OFF QUITE AS FAST AS LAST NIGHT HOWEVER
WITH LOW DEWPOINTS DID NOT CHANGE MINIMUMS. OVERALL CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

LOW IMPACT WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD. CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS HUMIDITY VALUES
INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A DRY AIRMASS
WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS (MOST AREAS NEAR FREEZING).

ON SATURDAY...RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
COMMENCES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN
(WHICH IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS) AND MUCH
OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS THICKER CLOUD
COVER SHOULD ALSO BE DELAYED. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
CRITICAL AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN LOW HUMIDITY VALUES...BUT
WINDS WILL BE BELOW 15 KNOTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...COMPLICATED SYSTEM WITH MANY INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN UPPER WAVE...THUS CONFIDENCE WITH
DETAILS SUCH AS QPF AND EXACT TIMING STILL NOT HIGH.
HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE TWO UPPER WAVES (AND
POSSIBLY MORE EMBEDDED PIECES OF ENERGY) WILL MORE OR LESS
INTERACT. IF THIS DOES INDEED OCCUR...ANTICIPATE A SURGE NORTHWARD
OF MOISTURE (PWATS OVER AN INCH) AND FORCING (SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE) SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL.
CONSENSUS IS FOR AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN FA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHWEST
(ALTHOUGH THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE).

BY MONDAY...THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING AREA. UP TO
AN INCH OF SNOW SEEMS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND UPON
HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND HOW QUICKLY THE BELOW
FREEZING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. WINDY
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...STILL FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. LOOKING AT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCH EASTWARD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FA IN
CYCLONIC FLOW. PCPN CHANCES LOOK BEST IN THE MON NIGHT INTO TUE
TIME FRAME AND THEN DRY THEREAFTER. THERMAL COLUMN LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER
IN BRINGING PCPN/LOWER CIGS INTO THE FA WITH MOST OF THE EVENT PAST
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FUELS REMAIN IN AN EXTREMELY DRY STATE AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE BEING APPROACHED OVER ALL AREAS. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. HUMIDITY IS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. OVER THE WARNED AREA...WIND SPEEDS ARE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER...AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT
TIMES. CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
THE EVENTUAL HOPE OF SOME MOISTURE FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
FIRE WEATHER...WJB





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