Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261953
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODELS SEEM
TO AGREE ON THIS FEATURE MOVING THROUGH BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING. AS FOR NOW...THE SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY MOVED EAST OF
KBIS AND ARE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR WESTERN FA. A TIMING
FEATURE SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING AT ABOUT 40 KTS...WHICH MEANS
THEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD AT A PRETTY DECENT CLIP. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT AS MENTIONED...SO KIND OF
LIKE THE LATEST NAM12 SOLUTION. THIS WOULD KEEP THESE SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR...PROBABLY NOT
REACHING UP INTO GRAND FORKS COUNTY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL
BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST ND. BASED ON THE NAM12 TIMING IT
SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN FA AROUND OR AFTER 9 PM OR SO. WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THERE. WAS SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN FA SO
IT COULD BE AROUND AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY AT THIS POINT. WED LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH QUITE A
BIT OF SUN AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THU SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER GOOD DAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE
SOUTH/SE OF THE FA. NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THU
NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTH...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
ON FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND PUTTING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT LIFTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
THUS...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THESE
PERIODS. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A TENDENCY FOR COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CUMULUS TO LIFT INTO THE VFR RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NW MN...WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE REGION
DIMINISHING LATE TODAY. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO
E ND...WITH POSSIBLY A SHOWER AT KFAR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. OTHERWISE...LIGHT DAYTIME WINDS
WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTHERLY ON WED. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI






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