Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

RADAR LOOP SHOWS NOT MUCH GOING ON IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NORTH
OF SIOUX FALLS...AND MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH
BRINGING PRECIP INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE FAR SOUTH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
WILL DELAY THE LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER TOMORROW
MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND POP/WX BASED ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MAKING IT
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN EXPECTED...WITH KGFK AND KBJI SHOWING
SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RAIN IS STILL WELL
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION ENTERING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. KEPT
JUST A TINY BIT OF POPS TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS BUT THINK THAT
MOST RAIN WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
COMING IN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS A STACKED UPPER LOW
WOBBLES OVER NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF
SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE OVR CNTRL NE BY 12Z WED. MID DAY
UPPER STACK LOW ACTUALLY RETROGRADES AND SPINS OVER NE FOR
DURATION OF DAY...FINALLY MOVING INTO WRN IA BY 12Z THU.

UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL PLAINS COMBINED WITH AN OPEN GULF WILL PUMP
AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH PRIMARY QUESTION OF
HOW FAR NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL GET. EXPECT A TIGHT POP GRADIENT
FROM NERN SD THROUGH SERN ND. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHARP CUTOFF BEING BETWEEN WAHPETON AND FARGO...WITH FARGO
RECEIVING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST
MADE TODAY IS TOO FURTHER TIGHTEN AND SHIFT SOUTH THE GRADIENT AND
NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP...KEEPING FURTHEST POINT NORTH ROUGHLY
ALONG THE CASS/RICHLAND COUNTY LINE.

WITH THE LOW WOBBLING OVER NE FOR MOST OF WED AND WED NIGHT...ALSO
EXPECT A SHARP CLOUD FREE LINE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHICH WILL GIVE
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF HWY 2 CLEAR SKIES WED AND REMAINDER OF
AREA CLOUDY...ALLOWING TEMPS ACROSS NRN VALLEY AND NW MN TO RISE
INTO MID TO UPPER 50S WHILE SOUTHERN VALLEY STRUGGLES TO GET INTO
THE 50S. SIMILAR SETUP TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH
TO DROP TO RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. OVERALL
MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...WHERE A VERY
ACTIVE MID WEEK IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST ON THU AND PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH...HOWEVER NE SFC FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S EVEN AS SOLAR INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON THU AFTN.

THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF SURFACE SYSTEMS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A DRIER OVERALL PATTERN WILL
RESULT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SLATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION LATER SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. THE ODDS FAVOR TOTALLY
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A TAD BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND
TRENDING HIGHER INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

ALL SITES HAVE GONE VFR WITH KFAR SEEING THE DECK LIFT UP TO 3300
FT. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
MOST TAF SITES SEEING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...GREATEST COVERAGE TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT LESS THAN
12 KTS...BUT THEY WILL PICK UP BY MID DAY TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OVER
20 KTS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...WJB/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR


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