Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 180400

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1000 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 705 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Red Flag warning allowed to expire.


.SHORT TERM...(Late Afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 1244 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

18Z Water Vapor Imagery/RAP analysis indicated strong zonal flow
aloft across the Rockies and adjacent Tri-state area. Area of
mountain cirrus remained firmly over the CWA through the
morning...but IR imagery indicating cloud tops warming fairly
rapidly and as a result expect cloud deck to slowly break up this
afternoon and evening. At the sfc...leading edge of cold front
hanging across southern CWA and was apparent on KGLD radar
imagery. Temps about 10 degrees cooler behind this front...which
have held things in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Main concern for this afternoon and evening is winds and fire
weather threat. Another surge of cooler air working into northeast
Colorado with large area of 30 to 40 kt winds occurring behind
it. Despite the questionable fire wx conditions right now...this
significant wind shift will likely create critical fire wx
conditions as it passes this afternoon and evening and will let
warning continue despite concerns. Winds aloft really crank up
tonight just above the sfc in the northern CWA with rapid update
models suggesting 50kts above the sfc inversion but below stronger
inversion aloft. General consensus is sfc inversion will be too
strong to allow deep mixing at this point and given the overall
pattern that does seem reasonable. For the time being have raised
gusts several knots tonight before 04z...but confidence in really
strong winds mixing down too low to include at this point in time. cooler air settles into the area expect temps to
dip into the upper 30s or low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A quiet weather pattern is expected for the long term portion of the
forecast.  Tuesday will be a quiet day as a surface high moves
through.  The long wave trough axis that will be moving onshore
tonight will move across the Tri-State Area Wednesday morning, along
with a weak cold front. Ahead of the trough axis and front a
corridor of saturated air will move across the High Plains. Models
have continued to move the saturated air further north with each
run. Currently Hitchcock and Red Willow Counties are the only ones
that may receive any rainfall as the trough axis moves through.
However am not very optimistic this will occur given the continued
northward shift of the rainfall chances. Would not be surprised of
these counties end up being dry with the trough passage.

Temperatures will be coolest Wednesday and Wednesday night then warm
as an upper level ridge builds onto the Plains.  Due to dew points
in the 30s and upper 20s Wednesday/Thursday nights and favorable
radiational cooling both those nights, frost will be likely for
nearly all of the area Wednesday and Thursday nights.  The western
third to half of Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties may have a hard
freeze by Thursday morning.  A frost advisory will be needed for
most of the Tri-State Area Wednesday night.  After collaborating
with neighboring offices will hold off issuing advisory for now.
Locations in the Big Sandy Creek bed and Republican River Valley
will be at risk for frost through early next week.

Early next week a cold front will move through the Tri-State Area as
the ridge flattens out.  Am not expecting any rainfall with the
frontal passage.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Gusty north to northwest winds will continue through 07Z/08Z
before lowering to 10kts after 08z. Winds become variable under
5kts from around 16z til 19z at KGLD (remain calm at KMCK for rest
of the period) when they back to the southeast and slowly increase
toward 8kts or so.




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