Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 132017
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
117 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 315 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

Cold front will move through the area this morning, with a period
of gusty north winds behind it. Relative humidity values may drop
into the upper teens this afternoon, but winds will be
diminishing by that time as the cold front continues south. So,
expecting elevated but not critical fire weather conditions.
Tonight, there will be a chance of light snow developing after
midnight associated with a shortwave trough moving down the
Rockies. The light snow may spread into northwest Kansas early
Thursday morning. However, little if any accumulation is expected.
Another shortwave trough moving out of the northern plains
Thursday afternoon will bring a chance of light rain/light snow
mainly to eastern parts of the area. Temperatures will warm into
the lower 40s, so no accumulation is expected, but wet bulb zero
heights still low enough to mention snow. Precipitation chances
will be ending by 00z with these fast moving features. As skies
clear and winds diminish Thursday night, temperatures will fall
into the teens by Friday morning. Upper ridge will rebuild on
Friday with temperatures rebounding into the middle to upper 50s.
Downsloping westerly surface winds will help with the warming, but
also should tank dew points. As a result, elevated to locally
critical fire weather conditions may develop.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 116 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

Friday through Wednesday the main focus will be the diminishing
chances for precipitation Saturday night.

Saturday night an upper level short wave trough will move through
the center of the country following a cold front.  Chances for
precipitation continue to fall as we approach Saturday night.  There
is some lift over the forecast area as the trough moves through.
However dew point depressions are growing, and the trough is
elongating more toward the Desert Southwest.  Even though the
precipitation chances are spread out over more of the forecast area,
have very little confidence of any measurable precipitation
occurring Saturday night due to the weather pattern resembling split
flow. Both the GFS and ECMWF are shifting the majority of the
precipitation to the Southern CONUS.  This seems very reasonable
given the resemblance to split flow which directs precipitation
either north or south of the forecast area.

Saturday there is a potential for the cold front to come through
during the day instead of the night, as has been shown the last
couple of days.  If the cold front comes through during the day,
north winds will be gusty behind the front, with gusts around 35
MPH.

After this trough passage the upper level ridge will build back over
the Great Basin and onto High Plains, bringing dry and warmer
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM MST Wed Dec 13 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the majority, if not
all, of the 18Z TAF period. Mid-level ceilings will gradually
thicken and lower this evening/tonight, in advance of a shortwave
approaching from the NW. Overcast ceilings with bases 4-6 KFT agl
are expected at both terminals by the end of the TAF period,
though the GLD terminal should see the aforementioned ceilings
arrive several hours prior to MCK, by ~09Z Thu.

Breezy NW winds sustained at 20-30 knots with gusts up to 35-38
knots are expected through ~22Z this afternoon, with winds
gradually shifting from the NW to NNW. Thereafter, winds are
expected to decrease to ~15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots,
further decreasing to ~10 knots with the onset of the nocturnal
inversion.

Winds will abruptly increase at GLD near the end of the TAF
period (~15Z), becoming sustained at 25-30 knots with gusts up 40
knots. Though winds will also increase several hours after sunrise
(15-18Z time frame) at the MCK terminal, winds will initially be
lighter, in the 15-20 knot range w/gusts to 30 knots, and are not
expected to strengthen to ~25G35 knots until after 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...VINCENT



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