National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 191744
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM STILL EXPECT A FEW TO LINGER EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY LIMITED...LESS THAN
500 J/KG IS FORECAST...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LARGE H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. PRIOR TO THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEAK SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING AROUND THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ENSEMBLE DATA AND OPERATIONAL MODELS POINTING TO
NORTHERN CWA HAVING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STILL NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF NEAR SFC FORCING TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN STORM
ORGANIZATION COVERAGE SO HAVE LEFT POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR
NOW. WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. EITHER KGLD OR KMCK
COULD SEE A BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTION FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JRM/MCK
AVIATION...024

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office