Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 111859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1159 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

Issued at 941 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

Adjustments have been made to the wind and temperature forecast
over the region. The cold front has moved through the region
quicker than originally anticipated. Most of the area has already
reached their maximum temperatures for the day.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 302 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

Cold front across central Nebraska this morning will sag southwest
into the forecast area today. It will reach Interstate 70 around
midday. Temperatures north of the front will slowly fall through
the 20s, while south of the front they will reach the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Front appears to stall out around the Colorado border
by late afternoon and might even retreat a bit with light westerly
winds overnight. However, a reinforcing shot will arrive mid day
Thursday and front will finally be forced out of the area. Coldest
day appears to be Friday with high temperatures in the mid to
upper 20s. Don`t see any precipitation chances until Friday night,
with some low level moisture sneaking northward ahead of the main
upper system. Soundings indicate a fairly robust elevated warm
layer above a shallow, sub-freezing surface layer... a set up for
either freezing rain or sleet. Models confine qpf through this
time period to areas east of a Hill City to Oakley line in
northwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

There are still a lot of questions regarding the upcoming winter
storm in the extended due to differing guidance. The time of concern
appears to be from the beginning of the period through Monday.
During this timeframe, snow will be the dominant precipitation type,
but some locations (particularly those in the southeast), have a
decent shot at seeing a wintry mix with freezing rain and sleet. It
is too early to tell details like where exactly precipitation types
will occur, and the forecast is subject to change as the weekend
draws near. That being said, the current snow forecast generally
calls for 2 to 4 inches.

Saturday: The closed low starts out the day over Baja California
before migrating east towards the southern end of the desert
southwest. Precipitation chances begin to creep into the region from
the south. Arctic air at the surface is overridden by moist warm air
aloft ahead of the upper low. As a result, freezing rain and sleet
are possible in addition to some light snow for generally the
southeastern third of the area. As precipitation chances move
further north Saturday night, the line transitioning from all snow
to a wintry mix pushes to our southeastern edge.

Sunday: PoPs favor this period during the extended. The upper low
takes a sharp turn to the north and heads towards the High Plains
from the desert southwest. With the warmer air aloft having shifted
east, only the far southeastern edge of the area sees a wintry mix
while the rest of region is forecast to see snow, with a brief
opportunity for some rain as temperatures peak during the afternoon.

Monday: Precipitation chances decrease as the system passes over the
central Plains. Snow early Monday transitions to a rain/snow mix mid
day and exits the region Monday night.

Tuesday: The upper low passes east and moves towards the Great
Lakes. Dry weather returns to the area.

Temperatures: Highs are anticipated to be in the mid 30s to low 40s
on Saturday, followed by the 30s on Sunday. The area sees a warming
trend thereafter, with highs in the mid/upper 30s on Monday and low
40s on Tuesday. Lows stay mainly in the 20s throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

KGLD will see off and on MVFR conditions over the next few hours
due to a small area of lower clouds moving northeast over the
site. VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of TAF
period for both KGLD and KMCK.

For both sites: Gusty winds up to 20 kts can be expected over the
next 3 to 4 hours due to the passage of the cold front. Winds
will continue to be from the northeast due to the front and wont
start to shift until late this evening; wind speeds will drop to
below 10 kts. Winds will shift clockwise slowly through the
evening for KGLD and generally stay from the east and northeast
at KMCK.




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