Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260941
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
330 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE
DIVIDE FROM WYOMING SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO. LATEST
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS BATCH OF MOISTURE (PER 700-
500MB RH) WILL MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY REMAINING ALONG/WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FOR TONIGHT MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LEADING EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR PRETTY SLIM
BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
AND DELAY THEM TIL 12Z THURSDAY.

850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE PAST TWO DAYS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 90S TO 103...HOTTEST ACROSS THE EAST. BETTER PERFORMING
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING FALLING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30MPH FEEL THAT
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND LIMITED CLOUDINESS WILL SUPPORT MANY
LOCATIONS HITTING 100 DEGREES. FURTHER EAST (MCCOOK TO HILL CITY)
DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER...WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH
WHICH ISNT THE BEST SCENARIO FOR FULL MIXING...THEREFORE HAVE MID
90S TO AROUND 100. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
60S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...APPEARS THAT MOISTURE WITH PRECIP CHANCES
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 12Z IN THE MORNING SLOWLY MOVES EAST
THROUGH 18Z WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ARRIVES ACROSS COLORADO COUNTIES RE-INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS MUCH
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST WHERE MID 90S EXPECTED BEFORE
CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES WOULD
SUPPORT READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS IN THE
MORNING FROM TRENTON AND MCCOOK TO HILL CITY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING
UPPER PATTERN SHOWING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING FROM NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
WITH A STORM SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BEGINS MOVING
EASTWARD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE LEADING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG A WEAK THETA E
BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND LEAD TO SLIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS 5-10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE
EXPECTED TO VEER A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND REACH 12KT THRESHOLD
WITH SOME GUSTS (25KTS OR SO) BY 17Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z-02Z
BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTH AND LOSING GUSTS A BIT (BUT REMAINING
ABOVE 12KTS) THROUGH 06Z THEN VEERING AGAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST NEAR
12KTS THROUGH 12Z. CIRRUS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SOME MID CLOUDINESS SNEAKING IN AT THE VERY END.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH...REACHING 12KT THRESHOLD AROUND 20Z-23Z. AFTER 00Z WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH AROUND 10KTS. CIRRUS GENERALLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

FOR TODAY THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH MAY PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN NEBRASKA
TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE KANSAS. RECENT COMMUNICATIONS WITH OFFICIALS
SUGGEST THAT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NOT COMPLETELY RECEPTIVE TO RAPID
BURNING THUS NO HIGHLITES WILL BE ISSUED. EXTREME CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99



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