Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 310838
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE RIDGE
ACROSS THE SW US...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AXIS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
MANITOBA CANADA TO THE SOUTHERN PLANS OF THE US. THIS CANADIAN AIR
MASS HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS TO OUR CWA

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING LATE AS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RESULT WITH BE SHIFT TO SE BL FLOW LATE TONIGHT
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT GOOD BL MOISTURE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NAM/SREF/RAP ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO OUR EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING PARTICULARLY AROUND SUNRISE. SOUNDINGS TEND TO SUPPORT A
VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...SO I AM NOT
SURE WHAT KIND OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO ANTICIPATE AT THIS
TIME. I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NOW.

SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
CWA WITH INCREASING MIXING TO ABOUT 800MB BRINGING BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA (GUSTS 30-35 MPH) AND GOOD WAA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
SEASONAL HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S (EAST) TO THE MIDDLE 80S (WEST).
SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZED
AND CAP WEAKENS. GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG CINH IN NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CAP WEAKENING PRIMARILY ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TD
VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 60F COULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE. SHEER
APPEARS TO BE WEAK WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER VALUES GENERALLY AROUND
20KT AND NO DIRECTIONAL SHEER TO SPEAK OF (OUTSIDE OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO). CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF CAPE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD CREATE A LIMITED
LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND THREAT. SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LACK OF
ORGANIZATION TO INDIVIDUAL CELLS I AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SAME PATTERN AS YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES GRADUALLY DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UNTIL A CUTOFF/CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE POSITION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PREDOMINANT SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE AREA WHILE ON THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN
FROM THE SOUTH.

WITH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS... SOME STRONGER THAN OTHERS... ARE ANTICIPATE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA... ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. ADD IN
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WE NOW HAVE A RECIPE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF WET CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE TRI STATE AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID... LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND THE
LOWER 80S WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN AROUND 60.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE MID MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY. WIND
SPEED WILL PEAK BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DECLINE SHORTLY AFTER 0Z. MEANWHILE
CHANCES FOR STORMS TO BE NEAR KGLD INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL BE WEST OF KMCK. SINCE
THIS SO FAR OUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO KGLD TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

REGARDING FOG FOR TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG HAS
BEEN PUSHED EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE LATEST DATA. THEREFORE AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION AT KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JTL



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