042
FXUS63 KGLD 070752
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
152 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms remain possible during the late afternoon
  and evening hours Monday.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
overnight with some gusty winds possible, ending by around
sunrise. Similar to yesterday, another round of thunderstorms is
expected across the area this afternoon and tonight associated
with a wave topping the ridge. A cluster or broken line will
develop in northeast Colorado by late in the afternoon and then
move east through this evening. Environment will be
characterized by up to 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE (HREF mean) and
surface-500mb shear of around 35 kts. Initial cluster may
include supercells or supercell structures with large hail,
damaging winds and perhaps a tornado, then becoming more of a
large-scale wind threat through the evening hours. CAMs not in
particularly good agreement on the evolution in the evening,
with confidence lower than usual on the coverage and potential
hazards. Some storms may linger into the overnight, particularly
in Nebraska, with a low risk of wind or hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Update: Morning convection in northern Nebraska has persisted
and progressed southeast into central Nebraska early this
afternoon. At 1 pm MDT, outflow associated with this convection
was located ~20 miles south of I-80 (south of a line from North
Platte to Lexington and Kearney).. and was making slow
southward progress toward Red Willow/ Hitchcock counties. If
convection continues to develop southward along the
aforementioned outflow, it would alter environmental conditions
over portions of southwest Nebraska.. the impact of which could
be detrimental or beneficial to severe weather potential later
this evening.

The Tri-State area remains situated in a weak forcing regime,
on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge (anchored over
northern Mexico and the Southern Plains), in W to WSW flow
aloft. Weak lower tropospheric flow (<= 15 knots from the
surface to 500 mb) persists.. with stronger flow confined to the
200-300 mb level (~25-35 KFT AGL). Another complex, challenging
convective forecast. Complicating factors include, but are not
limited to: lingering mesoscale features from antecedent
convection (e.g. a prominent MCV near Lamar, CO at 15 UTC) and
ongoing convection with a remnant MCS in northern Nebraska
(between Gordon/KGRN and Valentine/KVTN at 15 UTC). Weak, ill-
defined upper level forcing persists nearby and upstream/west of
the Goodland county warning area (i.e. no appreciable or
readily apparent features in WV imagery or SPC mesoanalysis data
at 15 UTC).

Recent 12Z runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest a scenario
roughly similar (more robust, perhaps) to what was observed
yesterday, i.e. scattered convection develops along portions of
the Colorado Front Range, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide at
peak heating and activity grows upscale into clusters and
progresses/propagates E-ESE into the Goodland county warning
area during the late afternoon and evening (~23-06 UTC,
beginning ~5 pm MDT, ending ~12 am MDT). If this is the case,
damaging winds would likely be the primary hazard. Environmental
conditions appear roughly analogous to yesterday.. e.g. the
presence of an elevated mixed layer, seasonably strong DCAPE,
marginal-moderate diurnal destabilization (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE)
and effective deep layer shear of similar magnitude (~25-35
knots). 15 UTC observational data and mesoanalysis trends
suggest that outflow emanating from ongoing convection /remnant
MCS/ in northern Nebraska may stall near, or just north, of the
I-80 corridor in western Nebraska this afternoon, where moisture
pooling in vicinity of the stalled convergence zone may
facilitate moderate to strong destabilization (2000-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE).. and a more robust, organized damaging wind potential
may exist. With this in mind, locations along and north of
Highway 36 (or along and north of a line from Idalia to St.
Francis, Atwood, Oberlin and Norton) appear to be most at-risk
for severe weather late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Mon: Guidance indicates relatively little change in the `big
picture`, i.e. the Tri-State area will remain in a weak forcing
regime on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge
(anchored over the Southern Plains and northern Mexico) in WSW
flow aloft. Convective development, coverage and evolution in
the Goodland county warning area may, once again, be influenced
(directly or indirectly) by upstream and/or antecedent
convection. Bottom line, low confidence persists with regard to
severe weather specifics (convective mode, coverage,
evolution).. similar to the past few days.

Tue-Sun: Long range guidance indicates that ridging aloft will
prevail over the southern CONUS, and that the Tri-State area
will remain situated on the northern periphery of the ridge, at
or near the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies.
Broadly speaking, expect near to above average temperatures and
a daily potential for late aft-eve convection (mainly in
climatologically favored locations downstream of the Colorado
Front Range).. depending on the orientation of the ridge and
proximity of the mid-latitude westerlies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for the period.
Both terminals could still see showers and winds above 30 kts
linger through 09Z, though the current forecast has things
ending around 07Z. The remainder of the night is forecast to
generally have winds below 10 kts with a low chance for some
patchy fog between 10-14Z. Winds are forecast to remain from the
south around 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts around 18-02Z.
There is another chance for storms tomorrow during the day.
There is a less than 10% chance between 18-00Z that storms could
move in from the east. The main concern is after 00Z with storms
developing in Eastern Colorado and moving east. These storms may
be severe with gusts above 50 kts and large hail. Once the
storms pass through, winds should lower to around 6 kts and
skies slowly clear.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KAK