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000
FXUS63 KGLD 012002
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
102 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS...AMONG VERY MANY...WILL BE PHASE OF
PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNT OF ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION INTO TOMORROW
SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED/COMPLEX AND EVEN
RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO CANADA. HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE RESIDES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH BROAD AND
COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER CANADA. WEAKENING/FILLING SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. A SIGNIFICANT LOBE ROTATING
AROUND THE CANADIAN TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTH.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED POORLY WITH JET SEGMENT IN
ADVANCE OF SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UKMET AND NAM WERE
DOING THE BEST BUT WERE STILL OFF. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...ECMWF
...CANADIAN AND SREF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME AND THE BEST OF THE
AVAILABLE OUTPUT. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE UKMET...GFS...NAM
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE NOT PRODUCING A LOT OF QPF...THEY ARE TENDING
TO OVERDO IT WITH THE GFS...NAM...AND SREF THE WORST.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO POOR
INITIAL ANALYSIS ON MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES...AND MODELS CHANGING
FROM THEIR SOLUTIONS...SOMETIMES DRAMATICALLY...FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

SAYING ALL THAT...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DOES STILL LOOK ON
TRACK DUE TO THE VARIABLE PHASES...VARIABLE ICE AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
IN GENERAL DID INCREASE ICE AMOUNTS...STILL BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH...DUE TO A LONGER TIME FOR ICE ACCUMULATION...AND LOWERED
SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY DUE TO NOT VERY MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION UNTIL
TONIGHT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...JET SETUP BY THE END OF THE DAY IS DIFFERENT THAN
WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE MAIN JET
SEGMENT IS STILL TO THE WEST OF MY AREA WITH THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OVER THE AREA. SO AT FIRST GLANCE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A LOT TO DRIVE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT DUE TO ANY STRONG
FEATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS DO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
QPF. THE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THIS DOME OF COLD AIR.

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO START THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION. SO BELIEVE WILL HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AROUND FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. SO QUESTION BECOMES PHASE. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
EITHER A DRY AIR MASS OR ONLY A SATURATED SHALLOW AIR MASS AND
THAT WAS EVIDENT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHICH I WILL ADD. GFS HAS
CHANGED ITS TUNE FROM YESTERDAY. IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN
SATURATING THE COLUMN TO A DEEPER DEPTH. THE NAM ALSO CHANGED ITS
TUNE AND SATURATED TO GREATER DEPTH...AT LEAST IN THE BEGINNING...IN
A SIMILAR FASHION AS THE GFS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT THAN
THE NAM.

WARM LAYER APPEARS IN ALL AREAS OR ALMOST ALL AREAS AT THE BEGINNING
WITH THE GFS SHOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. NORTHERN AREAS
SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW ONLY BECAUSE THE DENDRITIC ZONE IS AT THE
SURFACE. FOR A FEW COUNTIES SOUTH AND WEST OF THAT A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND SLEET IS INDICATED WITH THE FAR SOUTH
AND WEST INDICATING SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS AREA WORKS ITS
WAY SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY. ALL IN ALL THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD THE POP AND PHASE LAYOUT IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH NOT VERY STRONG LIFT...DID REDUCE THE
ALREADY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.

RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL IN PLACE. GFS CONTINUES TO NOT HAVE A DEEP OF
A SATURATED LAYER AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE DENDRITIC ZONE REMAINS
NEAR OR AT THE SURFACE. WHAT IS ALSO DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY IS
THAT THE GFS IS DOING WHAT THE NAM WAS DOING YESTERDAY WHICH IS
KEEPING A MIXTURE IN PLACE FOR MUCH LONGER. IF SOUNDINGS ARE
CORRECT THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST MAY NOT DO A COMPLETE CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AM CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING PRECIPITATION/SNOW
AMOUNTS DUE TO THE STRONG LIFT FROM THE JET/UPPER DEFORMATION MOVING
ACROSS. BY MIDNIGHT THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST HALF AND THAT IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH AMOUNTS
CAREFULLY.

FOR MAXES...MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMER AND THAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DUE TO THE MODELS NOT COOLING OFF TEMPERATURES AS MUCH FOR THIS
MORNING. MAXES MAY BE EARLY. USED A COMBINATION OF HRRR AND MAV TO
ADJUST THE MAXES. KEPT MINS WARMER AND ABOVE THE COLDEST GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY THE WIND CHILL
READINGS ARE NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH MARGINAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFERING ON THE SPEED/POSITION A
LITTLE BUT IN GENERAL THEY SHOW THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. THIS IS
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. IT IS ALSO BY THIS TIME THAT
DOWNGLIDE IS OCCURRING ON 290 SURFACE. PRECIPITATION BE HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE JET AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SO KEPT HIGHER POPS THERE AND LOWERED THEM OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH FLURRIES
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING. BASED ON SATURATED LOW LEVELS DID TOSS
IN SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLOUDS...UPSLOPE WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE DAY. NOT SURE WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS WARMING UP MAXES SO
MUCH. KEPT THE MAXES NEAR THE COLDER SIDE AND NEAR THE BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE. MINS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT
WHICH AGAIN MEANS WIND CHILL READINGS NOT GETTING AS COLD. AGAIN
REACHING MARGINAL ADVISORY VALUES.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND AFFECTS THE AREA AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE A DEEP DRY LAYER SO ONLY
CLOUDS WILL RESULT. SO THIS PERIOD WILL JUST END UP BEING A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS AND WHERE...
THAT COULD CAUSE IN THE TEMPERATURE LAYOUT I HAVE IN THERE. MODELS
ARE BRINGING IN WARMER AIR FURTHER EAST AND FOR THE MOST PART I
BELIEVE THEY ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER
DEPICTION OF THE SURFACE...DO LIKE ITS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BETTER. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO HOLD TO COLD
TEMPERATURES TOO LONG IN THIS PATTERN WHICH BECOMES STRONG ZONAL.
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS IN ERNEST DURING THE NIGHT AND
MAY END UP HAVING WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MST SAT MAR 1 2014

RIDGING WILL GENERALLY BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE MID TO
LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL TO
START BUT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT AND FROM TUESDAY AND
BEYOND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMING OVER THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH MAIN ENERGY GOING SOUTH. FORECAST
POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. A
SUFFICIENT WARM LAYER WILL EXIST TO MELT ANY ICE...SO
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DETERMINED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF -RA/-FZRA WITH LOW CONFIDENCE EITHER WILL PAN OUT. THAT
SCENARIO CARRIES OVER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL KEEP IT DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS BETTER IN
DENDRITIC LAYER BUT SURFACE WILL BE WARM TO START. COLDER AIR
ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONT. GIVEN THERE WILL BE ICE
IN THE COLUMN BUT UNCERTAINTY ON EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED WARM
LAYER WILL CARRY RAIN/SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014

IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING AT
KGLD AND KMCK. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
BUT LIGHT SNOW IS CAUSING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR.
EARLIER THIS MORNING KGLD DROPPED BRIEFLY TO LIFR DUE TO 3/4 SM
VISIBILITY BUT SNOW INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT VISIBILITY REMAINS IN THE IFR CATEGORY. IF A PERIOD OF GREATER
SNOW INTENSITIES AT EITHER TERMINAL WERE TO OCCUR CAUSING A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO LIFR...IT WOULD LIKELY BE DURING THE
EVENING WHEN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLIGHTLY STRONGER
FRONTOGENESIS/LIFT MAY BE PRESENT. OTHERWISE EXPECT FLUCTUATIONS
IN VISIBILITY TO CONTINUE FROM AROUND 1 SM TO AROUND 3 SM. TOWARD
TOMORROW MORNING...MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOWER AND SNOW INTENSITIES
SHOULD DECREASE SUFFICIENTLY FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW BUT
ICE ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN VERY MINOR TO NON-EXISTENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BRB