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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281059
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
358 AM MST THU NOV 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST THU NOV 28 2013

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST HAS SPLIT AND
CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THIS IS LEAVING A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA. DRY AIR MASS AT ALL LEVELS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

MODELS DID FINE AT UPPER LEVELS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS WAS DOING
THE BEST WITH THE UKMET NOT TOO FAR BEHIND IT. THE NAM WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE
FIELD. NAM AND ECMWF WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INTERESTING AND TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SHALLOW
COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE BECOME EASTERLY. SOME THIN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY COME IN DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE HAMPER WARMING. WHAT MAY IMPACT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IS LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME.

THE RAP AND NAM TENDED TO CATCH THIS BUT WERE EITHER NOT FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OR WEST WITH THIS AREA. TAKING THOSE MODELS AT FACE VALUE
WOULD SAY THAT STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE RAP IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND KEEPS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THERE. AFTER
COLLABORATION...ALL I DID WAS INCREASE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE.
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE AND
MAKE ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS. TENDED TO COOLER IN THE NORTHEAST AND
WARMER IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT MORE THAN MODEL IS NOW CONSISTENT IN BRINGING STRATUS IN
RETURN FLOW BY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BUT THE ECMWF...GFS AND SREF ARE NOT FAR
BEHIND. WITH THIS NEW DATA AND COLLABORATION...KEPT THE FREEZING
FOG AND INCREASED THE SKY COVER AFTER 06Z. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE
STRATUS COMES IN...EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD DROP QUICKLY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...STRATUS LOOKS TO HANG ON THROUGH THE MORNING
WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IF IT HANGS ON LONGER.
MODELS STILL WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH AS TO HOW FAR BACK EAST TO TAKE
THE COLD AIR/COLD FRONT. EARLIER OUTPUT TENDED TO KEEP THE COLD AIR
FARTHER WEST WHILE THE NEWER OUTPUT IS NOW FURTHER EAST. ONE THING
FOR SURE...WILL DEFINITELY HAVE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY/POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WRONG.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS THEN START HAVING PROBLEMS IN
RESOLVING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT SHOWN BY
THE OUTPUT. WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. THE STRONGEST ONE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PUSHES
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE BRUNT OF THE COOLING LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD TO HALF. SO ONCE AGAIN THERE COULD BE A BIG GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT GRIDS HAD THIS LAYOUT
CAPTURED WELL AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL THAT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF THE
SPEED AND POSITION OF THIS FRONT CHANGES.

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST THU NOV 28 2013

H5 ZONAL FLOW AND H3 CONFLUENCE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LARGE SCALE STABLE/DRY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. SURFACE TO H85 W-SW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER WILL
SUPPORT WAA AND MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING TO LOW TO MID 50S. CONTINUED MODERATION OF AIR MASS ON
MONDAY SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE MID 50S. ECMWF MOS
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHS IN UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F AND BASED ON WARM
EPISODES IN THE SHORT TERM THIS MIGHT BE REASONABLE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LESS CONFIDENCE IN THESE PERIODS REGARDING
FINER DETAILS OF TEMPS/PRECIP CHANCES...HOWEVER GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE A LARGE SCALE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN
US. A STRONG UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER ALASKA IS ADVERTISED TO DROP
SOUTH ALONG AMPLIFIED PACIFIC RIDGE INTO THE PACIFIC NW BY MONDAY
NIGHT PULLING WITH IT A STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASS FROM POLAR REGIONS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GEM IS THE FASTEST ON ARCTIC FRONT MOVING
INTO OUR CWA TUESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER LAST FEW RUNS OF
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS LEAN TOWARDS A SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING (POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS WED NIGHT). THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN US...WHICH WILL IMPACT
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR. YESTERDAYS 12Z
RUN OF ECMWF WAS AN EXTREME (AND CONCERNING) OUTLIER WITH H85 TEMPS
BY NEXT THU -20C OR COLDER OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. LATEST RUN OF
ECWMF AND GFS ARE A LITTLE MORE IN LINE...HOWEVER BOTH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN BY AT LEAST THE LATER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING THE PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WE MAY END UP SEEING THE
NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY (WC VALUES LESS/EQUAL TO -15F) OR
WARNING IF THE EXTREME SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE WERE TO VERIFY. I TEND
TO LEAN TOWARD THE MODEL MEAN AT THIS POINT FOR TUE/WED CONSIDERING
RUN-RUN DIFFERENCES WHICH SHOWS COLDER TEMPS AND BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES DELAYED TOWARDS WED/WED NIGHT AND OUTSIDE OUR CURRENT VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST WED NOV 27 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
AND THE MCK AND GLD TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY BY 19Z THURSDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND TURN
TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...LOCKHART