Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
143 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 613 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Have dropped the Red Flag Warning for Today since winds have gone
light to light and variable, temperatures are decreasing, and RH
values are on the rise.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Across the forecast area this afternoon...skies are a psunny/msunny
mix as a veil of high cloud lingers over the region. Temps are
ranging widely from the mid to upper 80s west to the upper 60s in
the far NE...due in part from lingering morning low clouds. These
locales will continue to rise as the afternoon will
not adjust current highs. Very dry conditions as well in the west
with Td`s in the teens to lower 20s. The result is many spots having
or will have RH readings 15 percent or lower into the single
numbers. Eastern zones still reside in slightly moister air.

Going into tonight...similar conditions from last night. Lingering
cloud cover will aid in keeping radiational cooling down...but
CWA will have overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s to the low
50s. Weak shortwave over eastern zones by monday morning will
bring low clouds and fog yet again.

For Monday...dry conditions and above normal temps once again are
expected for the entire CWA. Much of the day will have area ahead of
approaching frontal boundary and associated shortwave. WNW flow
will give the region downsloping conditions...aiding in the drying
process which will stretch further east than what is occurring
today. Daytime highs in the 80s to near 90F...combined with Td`s
in mid 20s to mid 30s will give the CWA low RH readings in the low
to mid teens. The stronger gradient coming with the front/trough
passage will put the entire CWA under critical Fire Wx conditions.
will be issuing a Red Flag Warning for the entire CWA 17z Monday-
01z Tuesday. Timing of the fropa passage will be key despite dry
conditions behind it. Should any fires erupt the wind shift
occurring with fropa will raise concern. Please refer to latest
Fire Wx product for further information.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 143 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Not much to say for this period, with PoPs near zero and clear skies
prevailing throughout the extended. Surface high pressure builds
over the region from the western CONUS behind the system impacting
the region earlier in the week, keeping temperatures cool on
Thursday. The large area of high pressure continues south towards
Mexico, blocking return moisture. Meanwhile, an upper trough pushes
east of the Plains as upper level ridging builds to the west. This
brings a warming trend to the area Friday and Saturday as the ridge
progresses east. However, a cold front looks to move through on
Sunday, slightly cooling temperatures off once again. Do not expect
any precipitation with the frontal passage due to limited moisture.

Temperatures start out in the 60s on Thursday before gradually
warming into the mid 70s to low 80s by Saturday. A decrease into the
low to mid 70s is currently anticipated for Sunday. Lows follow a
similar trend, warming from the 30s Thursday night to the upper 30s
to mid 40s for Saturday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies at GLD and
MCK through the TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight
will strengthen out of the west between 14-16Z and turn northwest
and become gusty between 17-19Z in the wake of a cold front
currently making its way across the central high plains region.


KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.



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