Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
358 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Heavy showers have moved out of the area, so have dropped the
flash flood watch.

Spotty showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move
across the forecast area today and into the plains states tonight
as the surface low and cold front move east and the associated
upper trough lifts out of the central Rockies this morning and
over the plains states tonight.

The forecast area will be between system tonight and Thursday
morning with westerly flow aloft, so no precipitation is
expected. By Thursday night, a short wave trough moving through
the northwest flow aloft moves across the region assisting in the
development of a weak surface trough that also moves east across
the area Thursday night. An extensive line of showers is being
depicted by the models extending north to south through the high
plains that sweeps across the region ahead of the surface trough.

Friday and Friday night will be dry and warmer as a short wave
ridge moves east of the Rockies and across the high plains.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

The extended period will start out with a west-southwest upper level
flow through Monday night and Tuesday morning. Then the flow will
become northwesterly as a upper level ridge builds over the Rockies
and a longwave trough deepens into the Plains. This pattern will
produce warmer and drier conditions, than what the region saw the
last few weeks, over the weekend. Tuesday a frontal boundary is
expected to move through the local area. This pattern is pulling
moisture into the region from the southwest and with the boundary
looking to impact the region on Tuesday, there is a chance of
precipitation every day through the period.

Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be near to slightly
above normal over the weekend then become slightly below normal on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will remain in the lower


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. The window for
storms to move near KGLD are nearing an end, however KMCK will be
in storms for the next couple of hours. The stronger cells in the
line may drop the visibility down to MVFR briefly. Close to 12z
MVFR conditions will occur at KGLD as low ceilings move in.
Ceilings will raise to VFR by mid morning.  KMCK does not look to
have ceilings this low.




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