Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211752
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST.  UNDER THE RIDGE CLOUD COVER RANGED FROM
CLEAR TO OVERCAST.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EJECT NORTHEAST ONTO
THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

TODAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARM AS WAA PERSIST.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  BEHIND IT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH IT WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS IN THE SINGLE MILLIBAR RANGE.  SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEEPEST
SATURATED LAYER WILL BE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH DEPTH DECLINING
BEHIND THE TROUGH.  WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.  AM CONFIDENT THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA
WILL SEE RAINFALL...BUT AM THINKING THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS
LARGE SO HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

FRIDAY MORNING THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...EXITING THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON A DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO THE FAR WEST PART OF THE
AREA.  MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE DRY
LINE...CAUSING T-STORMS TO FIRE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
70KTS...SEVERE STORMS ARE VERY LIKELY IF THEY DO NOT BECOME SHEARED
APART.  WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY TIED TO THE DRY
LINE...THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST OFF OF IT.  MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS OVER
THE WEST BEHIND THE DRY LINE.

FRIDAY EVENING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH...EITHER FAVORING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.  WITH
MOST MODEL PRECIP. FIELDS FAVORING THE NORTHERN TRACK...WILL GO WITH
THIS SOLUTION.  SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEEPEST SATURATION BEING TIED TO
THE SHORT WAVE...WITH SHALLOWER SATURATED LAYERS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA POSSIBLY FAVORING DRIZZLE.  AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP DRIZZLE
OUT OF THE FORECAST TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE.

SOUNDINGS DURING THE NIGHT SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED T-STORMS
OVER THE AREA.  COULD NOT FIND A COMMON HEIGHT FOR ELEVATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP OR AN AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  IF ELEVATED
STORMS DO FORM THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE.

SATURDAY MORNING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.  AHEAD OF THE TROUGH 700-500MB MIXING RATIOS WILL INCREASE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY STRONG POSSIBILITY FOR ELEVATED STORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF
2000J/KG OR SO AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS...AM EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO START EARLY IN THE DAY.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE MORNING.  ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT SOME
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.  WITH THE DRY LINE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
COUNTIES...AM THINKING THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD FIRE THERE
FIRST THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.  MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2000 J/KG
RANGE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 40KTS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPER CELLS.

SATURDAY EVENING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH ACCOMPANIED
BY THE HEALTHY MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY...ALLOWING SEVERE WEATHER TO
END BY LATE EVENING.  A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ALLOWING RAINFALL CHANCES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE SHOWING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
UTAH...COLORADO...AND SOUTHERN WYOMING SUNDAY AT 12Z. AS SUNDAY
PROGRESSES IT IS APPARENT THAT THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING
THE LOW NORTH. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF OUR REGION WE ARE EXPECTING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CAPE VALUES AND BULK SHEAR
DO NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE ARE PERIODS DURING THE DAY THAT
HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT VALUES THAT COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS
HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR DRY AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN THE CWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN SHOW SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER OUR
REGION MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
ON HOW THESE SHORT WAVES WILL TRAVEL BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...WITH THE
EUROPEAN HAVING A MORE ZONAL FLOW. SO EXACT ATMOSPHERIC MOVEMENT WILL
CONTINUED TO BE LOOKED AT AS WE GET CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THESE SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

KMCK... VFR THROUGH 06-07Z AT WHICH TIME A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO LIFR BY 09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE...PRIMARILY L-V BECOMING ESE OVERNIGHT AROUND 8 KTS.

KGLD... MVFR/VFR WITH CU/STRATOCU THROUGH 04-05Z AT WHICH TIME
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE
TO LIFR BY 07-08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 15-16Z WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/CT
AVIATION...DLF



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