Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280550
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF ANY REMAINING PRECIP ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST SO
MENTION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY STILL LOOKS GOOD.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA...
EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LOWER TEMPS TOWARDS FORECASTED LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KMCK 10Z-14Z...AND SOME 6SM FOG
POSSIBLE FOR BOTH SITES FROM 10Z-14Z. WINDS STARTING OUT NW
SHIFTING TO THE NE THRU THE DAY AROUND 10KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 20KTS BY MIDDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN



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