Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 210826
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
226 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Through Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Through Tonight: A lee cyclone will deepen in eastern CO as
shortwave energy over the PAC NW progresses east toward the
northern Rockies. Marginal destabilization is expected along/east
of Hwy 283 late this afternoon into tonight as 10-12C H85
dewpoints advect poleward beneath a pronounced elevated mixed
layer (characterized by H7-H5 lapse rates of 8.0 C/km) via
strengthening southerly flow on the eastern periphery of the lee
cyclone in western KS. Given a significant amount of convective
inhibition and relatively weak upper forcing prior to cold fropa
~12Z Sat, expect dry conditions to persist. Strong southerly winds
are expected along/east of Highway 283 this afternoon/evening,
becoming sustained at 25-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Although
winds should decrease with loss of insolation by ~00Z, GFS
forecast soundings suggest a shallow (1500-2000 ft) mixed layer
may develop beneath the EML east of Highway 283 around 03Z, when
low-level (1000 ft AGL) southerly flow nocturnally strengthens to
~50 knots. As a result, a second maxima in winds/gusts may occur
east of Hwy 283 this evening. Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph cannot be
ruled out, though this is more likely to occur south/east of the
GLD CWA (e.g. Dodge City, Hays, Russell). Expect highs this
afternoon in the lower 80s and lows tonight ranging from the
lower/mid 40s in eastern CO (where the cold fropa will occur prior
to 12Z) to the upper 50s/lower 60s in the far east where
southerly flow will persist all night.

Saturday: Expect sustained NW winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to
~45 mph for several hours in the wake of the cold front (fropa
between 12-15Z from N/NW to S/SE) in association with 6-7 mb/3-hr
pressure rises with cold advection Saturday morning, strongest in
southwest NE, northeast CO, and extreme northwest KS. Expect winds
to decrease to 15-20 mph with gusts to ~30 mph by early
afternoon (~18Z), 10-15 mph by ~21Z, and light/variable or calm by
or shortly after sunset in most areas. Expect afternoon
temperatures 15-20F cooler than previous days, ranging from the
upper 50s in eastern CO to mid 60s far S/SE.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Tuesday and Wednesday: Northwest flow aloft will prevail with a
retreating trough to the east and a ridge to our west. We will be
looking at near average temperatures on Tuesday as CAA will prevent
much of an increase in temps. The western ridge will diminish in
strength as we head into Wednesday; however, slightly weaker flow
aloft combined with warm 850 temps will allow our high temps to
climb well into the 70s. Dry weather is expected both days.

Thursday and Friday: There is significant disagreement among the
global guidance as we head into late next week. The GFS and Canadian
highlight a general troughing pattern across the Plains with lowered
heights and cooler temperatures. The ECMWF however, is much colder
than the other two, closing off a strong low in the four corners
region and sending it northeastward. This is evident in both the H5
and H7 layers and with strong moisture advection ahead of the
system, this could make for a very interesting scenario late Friday.

In either case, it will be much cooler and wetter with precipitation
chances increasing on Thursday and persisting all the way into the
weekend. Current guidance is cold enough for a mention of snow/mixed
precip late Thursday night and into Friday morning. Much of the area
will experience temperatures in the upper 20s on both Thursday and
Friday night, which should be enough to meet hard freeze criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1144 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

VFR conditions should prevail at KGLD and KMCK terminals. There
may be some virga (primarily at KMCK) around 12Z, however
confidence is low that any rain showers will actually occur at
either terminal. A cold front is still expected to swing over both
KGLD and KMCK terminals, with gusty winds shifting from the south
to the northwest. Low level wind shear is also still possible
overnight ahead and behind this front through sunrise. Strongest
gusts will be during the day, and a few gusts to 40kt can`t be
ruled out late Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR



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