Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 290456
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1056 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST TEMPS FROM LATEST OBS. SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE FINALLY CLEARED THE REGION ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA. MOST OBS SHOWING 30S OVER THE AREA BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS
STILL PERSISTING...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TOWARDS DEWPTS...WHICH RESIDE IN THE LOW/MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

SINCE LOW TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE FA LAST NIGHT AND BEING SO LATE IN THE SEASON HAVE DECIDED TO
END THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FROST OR FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE REST OF
THIS SEASON.  THEREFORE, THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
CANCELLED.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 30S. WARMER 850
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL HELP MAX TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND
70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN POINTS OF THIS LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FOCUS ON THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

ON THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA
INTO MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BRING THE TRI-STATE REGION
PRECIPITATION BUT RATHER A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ATTAIN NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. COOLEST AIR
BECOMES NOTICEABLE FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S.
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z/12Z MODEL RUNS SO HAVE NOT DROPPED TEMPS AS
MUCH AS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SUDDEN JUMP IN GUIDANCE.

LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO HAVE AN EFFECT ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY IN THE FORM OF INCREASING WINDS FIRST ACROSS EAST
COLORADO AND EVERYWHERE SATURDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WYOMING IN
ADDITION TO A STRONG SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHALL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PRESSURE FALLS OF 10-14 MB OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY INCREASE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS BEING THE WINDIEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM. FORECAST
WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

MODELS AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HEADING
NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS VERSUS FURTHER SOUTH OVER OUR
AREA. THEREFORE...SURFACE LOW HEADS FURTHER NORTH AND LIKELY
ELIMINATES ANY POTENTIAL SNOW STORM. A SECOND...WEAKER PUNCH OF
ENERGY PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT. WEAK INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO COULD STILL SEE SOME
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF BELOW FREEZING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE
EAST. CALM WEATHER RETURNS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS IN. IT APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO SO THE DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. SKC BEFORE 16Z WED AND AFT 00Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE FEW060
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS VARIABLE THRU MIDDAY...THEN WSW
5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN



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