Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 252336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
KANSAS.

THE MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS PLENTY OF LIFT ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. PLAN TO GO WITH LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS FOR
TONIGHT. STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN FA TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
MOISTURE AND LIFT. PLAN TO GO WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SWING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THE UPPER SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SINCE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW IT CLOSED AT 500MB. PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FOR THE WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) RANGE FROM AROUND 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TO AROUND 2.50 INCHES IN
NORTHERN AREAS. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE
TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THAT
SYSTEM WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK ON TIMING OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MONDAY WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH 10-12Z WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD BOTH TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN SW KS AND EASTERN COLORADO
WILL SUPPORT STRATUS AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND
12Z. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT
KGLD AS LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT KMCK MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH MIXING TO IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING BEFORE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...MAINLY NEAR KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR



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