Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
996
FXUS63 KGLD 210843
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
243 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today THROUGH MONDAY night)
Issued at 236 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE FURTHER EAST ACROSS
KANSAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST TODAY AS WEAK DYNAMICS
MOVE OVER THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER RH INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
STRATUS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY OVER MUCH OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTHWEST FA WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITH LOTS OF INSTABILITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. SHEAR AROUND 40KTS SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING WINDS SHOULD MOVE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40KTS. THIS WIND DIRECTION
WILL MOVE STORMS INTO MORE STABLE AIR NORTHEAST OF THE DRYLINE. CIN
TAKES OVER BY MID EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING. SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE SO
THAT STRATUS, FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL RETURN AND LAST OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE
DRYLINE.  THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST BUT DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN IT EXACT POSITION. STRONG INSTABILITY AND 35 TO 45 KTS
OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING MORE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.  SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTING DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER WITH STRATUS LINGERING OVER
A LARGE PART OF THE FA EXCEPT THE FAR WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 60S OVER THE
EASTERN FA. MUCH WARMER READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE EASTERN FA MONDAY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY COOL TO THE 50S.




.LONG TERM...(TUESday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016

Unsettled weather is expected during the extended period, with
chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. Near to above
normal temperatures are forecast through midweek.

At the start of the period, weak ridging has pushed east on to the
Great Lakes region while an upper trough moves over the western
CONUS. This setup up establishes southwesterly flow over the High
Plains. At the surface, a boundary stalls over western Kansas. This
boundary will be the area to watch for storm development through
midweek. At this time, the better chance for severe weather appears
to be off to the east and south of the region where better moisture
is located.

Models disagree on how the upper pattern to the west progresses
throughout the work week. In addition, surface feature position and
timing is difficult to determine. Guidance has come into better
agreement that a second system could move towards the area from the
southwestern CONUS later in the week. Nevertheless, weak low
pressure systems pass through, along with disturbances in the upper
flow, as troughing moves eastward and decent low level moisture sits
in place. Precipitation chances could not be ruled out for any
period.

Temperatures gradually decrease throughout the extended. The warmest
day looks to be Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
before temperatures decrease into the mid 60s to mid 70s by Friday.
Lows will be in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Fri May 20 2016

For Kgld...through about 15z, lifr/vlifr conditions are expected.
The southeast winds of near 17 knots with gusts to near 25 knots
will decrease about 12z. At 15z the conditions will improve to ifr
then vfr at 18z. At 18z, southeast winds of near 20 knots with
gusts to near 30 knots is expected through 03z. At 03z those winds
will become a little stronger as conditions return to mvfr. Llws
is expected from 03z on as well. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop to the southwest of the site during the afternoon and early
evening. However...since the coverage will be isolated...guidance
hinting that whatever forms will not affect the site...and does
not occur until the end of period...chose to leave any
thunderstorm mention out.

For Kmck...Mvfr conditions will quickly become ifr/lifr early the
period and continue through the remainder of the period. At 18z,
southeast winds will increase into the 15 to 20 knot range with
gusts to near 25 knots. These winds will continue through the end
of the period.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.