Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 161725
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

UPPER PATTERN CURRENTLY FEATURING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY 00Z TUESDAY THEN REDEVELOPING OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST-SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
ON SUNDAY WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 10 MPH OR LESS AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM
THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
DURING THE NIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. FOR MONDAY
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL BUT
THE FAR EAST-SOUTH-SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE IT MAY GET
HUNG UP. THIS WOULD BE THE BETTER LOCATION FOR LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

EXTREMELY COMPLICATED FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT
THE SPREAD IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT GETS PROGRESSIVELY
WORST. DIFFERENCES RESULT IN MODEL HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN
RIDGE...UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THAT RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.

IN GENERAL...THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE VERY ACTIVE PERIOD WITH
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH
THE PERIODIC BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH OR GETTING DRAPED OVER OR
NEAR THE AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT ALSO MAY END UP FAVORABLE TO ALLOW
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN UP.

SO KEPT WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME WHICH DOES HAVE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY WITH NO ONE PERIOD STANDING OUT AT THIS TIME. PATTERN ALSO
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THE
ONLY WAY THIS MAY NOT END UP HAPPENING IS IF THERE IS MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN ADVERTISED. AGAIN KEPT THE TEMPERATURES THE INIT GAVE
ME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT FOG WITH VIS AROUND 6SM (MAYBE LESS)
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMCK...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.
THERE ISNT A STRONG SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS...SO HAVE LIMITED
MENTION TO 6SM GROUP AT 11-15Z. WITH WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER BOTH TERMINALS WINDS WILL REMAIN ERRATIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY 6KT OR LESS. EVENTUALLY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...AGAIN
AROUND 6KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR


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