Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 200841

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
241 AM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Across the Tri State region this and very dry
conditions ensue for the entire area as a dry line/trough currently
sits over the western half of the CWA. Temperatures are ranging
mainly in the 90s for most locales...with a few spots over western
portions of NE CO in the 80s. Winds are from the SSW 10-15
mph...gusting to 25 to 30 mph at times. RH readings as a result of
the hot temps and low dewpts are ranging in the single numbers and
teens west...into the upper teens and 20s east.

For the rest of the afternoon on into the evening hours...with 2-3
more hours of good sunshine left...expect more areas east to reach
lower towards Red Flag criteria before conditions abate as sunset is
reached. Expecting thin veil of high clouds to persist as well
before shifting east later tonight. The large T/Td spread at sunset
is going to allow for a large drop in temps...combined with a shift
to the north for the winds as a result of the trough moving
east...will be looking for overnight lows to drop well into the mid
and upper 40s for much of the western CWA...and a 50-55F range for
locales along and east of Highway 83. Going into Wednesday...region
will see a nice cooler and dry day with NNE flow working thru the
area. Looking for high to range from the mid 70s west up the 80F
mark for those locales east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

A highly amplified synoptic pattern remains in place for the
extended period with a deep trough across the western states and a
ridge in the east. A nearly stationary cold front and associated
theta-e boundary, will be situated from southwest to northeast
across the CWA on Saturday. There will be a good chance of showers
and embedded thunderstorms through much of the day with a chance of
strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening
hours along an axis of higher instability and shear. PW values
remain high, generally in the 1.25 to 1.60 inch range (GFS) on
Saturday, thus we will likely see periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall, especially within the stronger storms.

The theta-e boundary slides slightly eastward as we head into
Sunday. PW remains high, in the 1.35 to 1.70 inch range with lower
environmental instability across the region as compared to previous
days. Although severe storms are not expected, a few stronger storms
could still develop in our eastern most counties. Moderate to heavy
rainfall is expected throughout the day, especially in the eastern
two thirds of the CWA. Storm total rainfall estimates are in the 3
to 4 inch range but this will likely fluctuate as new data is made

We will begin to see reduced rain chances from west to east on
Monday as the surface boundary slides eastward. Much cooler
conditions are expected as daytime highs will only climb into the
60s. Tuesday will bring dry weather with highs in the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1151 PM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. Main concern for aviators tonight will be
strong crosswinds up to 35 knots at the Goodland and McCook


KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for COZ252>254.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NEZ079-080.



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