Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1027 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST AREA TEMPERATURES FROM LATEST OBS. NUMBERS
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS UPDATE AND STILL EXPECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPS THRU THE OVER NIGHT AS WAA WORKS INTO AREA. IT WILL BE MORE
PRONOUNCED OVER EASTERN ZONES...AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS HAVE
TO OVERCOME DECENT FRESH SNOWPACK...AS WELL AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

LOOKS DRY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES BEING THE MAIN CONCERN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE COMPLICATED. DO HAVE SNOW COVER THE
ENTIRE AREA BUT OF VARYING DEGREES. IN GENERAL THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE AREA HAS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...THAT AREA HAS BEEN THE PLACE WHERE
THE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY THE WARMEST.

A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH OR
WEAK FRONT DURING THE NIGHT. THE MAIN THING WITH THIS IT WILL
CREATE ENOUGH MIXING AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE
WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FROM
LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TENDED TO GO TOWARD
THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE.

THE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST WITH PLENTY OF SUN. AS STATED ABOVE THE
NORTHEAST HAS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER WITH LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER NORTH OF AREA. BECAUSE OF THE DEGREE MIXING TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT HAVE PROBLEM RISING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION.
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THOSE WINDS WILL HAVE A LONGER FETCH
OF SNOW TO BLOW OVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT REALLY DO
NOT KNOW HOW MUCH. TENDED TO STAY NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

NEXT TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING DOWN THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
ARRIVE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING SNOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WILL BE 1 TO 3 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN EASTERN COLORADO. AS A
LARGE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES. IT DOES NOT APPEAR WARNING CRITERIA
WILL BE REACHED WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MST MON FEB 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
SKC THRU 20Z-22Z...THEN SCT120-150. WINDS WSW 10-20KTS THRU ALMOST
12Z TUESDAY THEN NW 10-20KTS...BACKING TO WSW AGAIN BY 00Z-02Z
WEDNESDAY AT 5 -10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN


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