Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
202 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

Issued at 500 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

With precipitation having ended across the forecast area and no
further precipitation expected overnight, have cancelled the
winter weather highlights across the forecast area. With
temperatures in the lower to mid 30s across the forecast area
today, much melting has occurred, which has helped most major
roadways to become clear with only areas of either wet or icy
conditions remaining. Expect some refreezing overnight as
temperatures drop into the lower 20s and teens, but do not expect
any additional precipitation from this point on as the storm
system continues to move away from the central high plains region
and towards the upper midwest.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

H5 low continues to move off to the northeast this afternoon. Snow
transition was a bit slower than expected thus ice amounts were
higher and snowfall totals lower. Much of the CWA is transitioned to
snow where precipitation is falling with occasional reports of mixed
sleet and freezing rain. A persistent but weak band of snow
stretches from Hitchcock county in Nebraska to central Kit Carson
county in Colorado. This band is very slowly moving to the east and
areas within this band of light snow could pick up an additional
inch of snow. HRRR mesoscale and SREF plumes indicate that most
areas will see precipitation chances quickly diminish as the
afternoon progresses, ending by around 00Z. Temperatures will hover
in the lower 30s for the most part with upper 20s in the
northwestern portions of the CWA. Skies will clear tonight from
northwest to southeast.

Mostly clear skies will prevail Tuesday with a rebound in
temperatures. Highs will reach the upper 30s to middle 40s across
the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 200 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

Friday-Friday night: Upper level shortwave trough is still
advertised by extended guidance to quickly move over the central
Rockies and shift over our CWA briefly deepening somewhere over the
plains. There is a considerable amount of variance on track and
timing of when this feature closes off which would drastically
change it`s impact on sensible weather over our CWA. GFS is the only
model currently that might support higher precip amounts (in our far
north Friday night) with a stronger earlier closed circulation.
ECMWF has less run-run consistency and keeps this an open wave over
our CWA (much less precip/precip potential). This is still our next
shot of measurable snow, but even the more favorable GFS keeps
majority of our CWA dry.

Saturday-Saturday night: There is a second shortwave trough that
round the Rockies and may close off over the southern plains during
these periods, however like the feature on Friday-Friday night there
really isn`t a lot of consistency between deterministic guidance,
and ensemble spread is very high. None of the advertised tracks are
particularly favorable for measurable precipitation in our CWA
except maybe our far southeast where slight chance was kept.

Sunday-Monday: Models finally show better consistency on the upper
level pattern during these periods, with shortwave ridging expected
back over the plains. This will continue to support dry conditions.

Regarding temperatures through the extended periods: Despite trough
passages Friday-Sat night and falling heights southern stream
dominates and there is very little change in air mass between weaker
cold front passages. As a result we should be near seasonal normals
(upper 30s/lower 40s for highs) until Monday when rising heights
increasing WAA may support above normal temperatures closing in on
50 once again.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1027 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with mid to
high clouds diminishing overnight and only a few high clouds after
14Z. Light northwest winds will turn southwest after 20Z.




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