Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240452
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1152 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

With the exception of a few sprinkles Friday night with a cold
front...dry and seasonable weather is expected through early next
week across the Ohio Valley. Another cold front will bring the
next threat for precipitation for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 900 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Current forecast in good shape. No updates planned at this time.
Previous discussion follows.

Mid level clouds associated with the wave aloft that passed through
the region this morning have now largely departed central Indiana...
leaving skies sunny and bright for Thanksgiving afternoon.
Temperatures have responded this afternoon to the sunshine...with
the entire forecast area in the low and mid 40s as of 18Z.

Quiet rest of the holiday expected across the Ohio Valley as a
surface high pressure ridge centered just off to the southeast
serves as the dominant influence. Skies will remain clear through
the overnight with southerly flow steadily strengthening prior to
daybreak as the surface pressure gradient tightens late.

Temps...lighter surface flow initially should enable temperatures to
drop off fairly easily with most locations falling into the upper
20s and lower 30s. A model blend works very nicely for lows tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Forecast challenges are few through the period...with the only
potential for light precipitation coming Friday night with the
passage of another cold front.

High pressure will serve as the primary influence on weather across
central Indiana and the Ohio Valley through the weekend with one
brief exception focused on Friday evening and night.

With warm advection strengthening courtesy of southwest flow ahead
of the approaching cold front...expect mostly sunny skies and a mild
day by late November standards. Despite the presence of a shallow
inversion...it will also become increasingly breezy as the day goes
on with the cold front approaching from the northwest and serving to
further tighten the pressure gradient. As the front moves into the
region Friday evening...it will be accompanied by a vort lobe aloft
and some mid level deformation. Moisture profiles overall are
unimpressive and the bulk of the forcing aloft will be off to the
northeast...but the parameters mentioned above should compensate and
enable a few sprinkles or very light rain showers to accompany the
boundary Friday night. The front and any light precipitation will be
east of central Indiana prior to daybreak Saturday.

High pressure will reestablish on Saturday as it dives south through
the central and southern Plains and expands east into the Ohio
Valley. A brief shot of cold advection on Saturday with northwest
flow will bring slightly cooler temperatures for the weekend.
Sunshine will be in abundance throughout the weekend with great
travel conditions expected across the region.

Temps...low level thermals strongly support bumping high
temperatures at or above MOS for Friday considering strong boundary
layer mixing and compressive warming ahead of the boundary. Highs
should warm into the low and mid 50s from east to west. Highs over
the weekend will be slightly cooler...generally ranging from the mid
40s to lower 50s. Utilized an overall model blend from Friday night
through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
Issued at 220 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Low confidence forecast after Monday night as models and ensembles
continued to struggle finding a common solution, which gets more
common the further into the cold season. So, will not make any
chances with small pops starting late Tuesday and Tuesday night
associated with complex frontal systems and a pair of upper systems.
Low confidence in temperatures and timing and coverage of showers is
low and goes hand in hand  with the low confidence in synoptic
temporal and spacial features.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 240600Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1152 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

No significant cloud cover and unrestricted visibility expected
at the terminals through midday Friday. Surface winds 180-200
degrees at 4-7 kts overnight will become 190-210 degrees at 9-13
kts by midday Friday. Occasional surface gusts around 18 kts
possible by that time.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ryan
NEAR TERM...Ryan/JAS
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS


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