Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 220712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
312 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

been updated below.


Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure is expected across the area through early next week.
A frontal system may affect the area around the middle parts of
next week.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Dry conditions expected today as a surface ridge moves through the
area. Moisture flowing off of Lake Michigan may result in some
cloud cover over the eastern zones through early afternoon, as well
as some mid level cloud at times later today. Partly to mostly
sunny sky conditions should work for today.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today look OK.

Persistent patches of cloud cover, especially over the eastern
zones, have been holding up temperatures so far. Plan is to hold onto
the Frost Advisory for now, and watch temperature and cloud cover
trends over the next few hours. Advisory may be cancelled early in
some areas if cloud cover persists too much longer.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Quiet weather expected during this period under dry northwest upper
flow and surface high pressure. Model data suggest a weak cold front
may drop through the area around Sunday night, but a generally dry
air mass suggests this front will be inactive.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for Sunday
may be a little on the cool side. Will bump up the guidance highs
a couple of degrees in that period. Rest of the temperature guidance
looks reasonable.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A progressive and some what zonal upper flow will occur during
the long term period.   High pressure over the southern great
lakes Tuesday will dominate our weather as it moves to the east.
This will be followed by a low pressure system which will track
across northern Indiana Wednesday night followed by a weak area
of high pressure which will move into the Ohio valley by Friday.

Models have trended a little slower and wetter with the late
Wednesday system.  Also added mention of isolated thunder
Wednesday afternoon and night with good upper dynamics.

Temperatures will be near normal Tuesday and a little above normal
Wednesday through Friday.   Lowered tempertures a little some areas
Tuesday night...Otherwise stayed close to Super Blend initialization.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 220600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period with any
remaining ceilings to scatter at or shortly after issuance time.

Northwest winds will become west and southwest this afternoon 6
knots or less. Drier air to filter in overnight, so do not think fog
will be an issue. The SREF and GFS LAMP support no fog as well.


Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for INZ021-028>031-



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