Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 210822
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210900Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY THE
LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT BUT THIS IS ONLY RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 5000-6000 FT.

BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/CP

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