000
FXUS63 KIND 102035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
435 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

ONE MORE SPRINGLIKE DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TUESDAY BEFORE THE TRANSITION SEASON REARS ITS UGLY HEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES UP THE OHIO
VALLEY...INITIALLY BRINGING RAIN AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
TO THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA AND CHANGES
REMAINING PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FORTUNATELY...THE COLD WILL NOT
LAST ESPECIALLY LONG AS HIGHS WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S
QUICKLY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

NO SENSIBLE WX EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION WILL
PREVENT TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT...AND WENT WITH THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TONIGHT...GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE MID WEEK STORM MOVING INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXITING LATE WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO COALESCE AROUND A SOLUTION BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...ALTHOUGH AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE CASE THIS
WINTER...NAM/SREF ARE FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE GFS/EURO ARE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. GEM IS ACTUALLY A DECENT COMPROMISE
SOLUTION IN BETWEEN...BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT AT THIS POINT AS THE ENSEMBLES ARE BECOMING BETTER
CLUSTERED AROUND A COMPROMISE TRACK.

SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE AS REPRESENTED BY Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REASONABLY STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCE IS
EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE...WITH VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
STRONGLY NEGATIVE EPV IN PLACE ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THE COMPLICATING FACTORS ARE MOSTLY THERMODYNAMIC IN
NATURE.

MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER...WITH SWITCHOVER TO ALL SNOW NOW
APPEARING UNLIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA ANY
EARLIER THAN ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...SWITCHOVER TO ALL SNOW
MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL INDIANA PRIOR TO ABOUT 08-09Z
TIME FRAME. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL DAYS OF RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST
ACCUMULATION.

WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR STRONG MESOSCALE
FORCING TO CAUSE SOME DYNAMIC COOLING AND THUS A SLIGHTLY EARLIER
SWITCHOVER AND INITIALLY HIGH RATE OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD BOTH INCREASE AMOUNTS AND REDUCE
MELTING AT THE SURFACE AS THE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OVERWHELM THE
WARM SUBSURFACE TEMPS. THAT SAID...THAT IS SOMEWHAT SPECULATIVE
AND IS MORE A NOWCASTING ISSUE THAN ANYTHING.

AT THIS POINT...EXPECT 3-5 OVER THE NORTH FROM ROUGHLY
CRAWFORDSVILLE TO WINCHESTER NORTH...2-4 ACROSS CENTRAL INCLUDING
THE INDY METRO...AND 1/2 TO 2 ACROSS THE SOUTH.

OFFICES TO THE NORTH HAVE GONE WATCH...AND CANNOT FAULT THEIR
REASONING AS THE BEST BAND APPEARS LIKELY TO SET UP ACROSS THEIR
SOUTHERN AREAS. WOULD NOT BE ENTIRELY SURPRISED DEPENDING ON HOW
THE BANDING OCCURS TO SEE A SPOT OR TWO HIT SIX IN OUR FAR
NORTH...BUT AT THIS POINT THAT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE AN UPPER BOUND
AND DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE REQUIRED TO ISSUE A WATCH. DO
EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE AN ADVISORY EVENT AT SOME POINT...BUT TOO
FAR OUT AT THIS POINT.

CONSENSUS TEMPS APPEARED REASONABLE EXCEPT DURING THE STORM...WHEN
FORECAST STICKS CLOSER TO SURFACE WETBULB TEMP PROGS THAN ANY
PARTICULAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

ROLLER COASTER RIDE FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS BECOMES
TYPICAL AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AFTER THE MIDWEEK WINTER STORM. THE FRONT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY...CANNOT JUSTIFY MUCH HIGHER THAN
A 20 POP. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR FOR
PRECIP TO FALL AS LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER. FROM THIS POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SET TO
REVERT TO A FAMILIAR THEME FOR THIS WINTER. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U S BY SUNDAY WILL PROMOTE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH
ANOTHER PROLONGED STRETCH OF COLDER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
POISED TO ARRIVE BY LATE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP COME SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO LIGHT SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. HIGHS BY MONDAY LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 40 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 102100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUBTLE BOUNDARY LINGERING THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ALONG IT. CIRRUS DRIFTING SOUTH AND AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ANTICIPATE INCREASED SUNSHINE. WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25KTS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAXIMIZED.
GUSTS WILL DROP OFF TOWARDS SUNSET WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT SOME HAZE OR LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A
SHALLOW INVERSION DEVELOPS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. HAZE MAY TAKE
SOME TIME IN THE MORNING TO DISSIPATE BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 10KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

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