Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 031647
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1247 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN MID WEEK. MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL THEN
SEE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BY
AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY BUILDS THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. 850MB WINDS WILL BE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL ONLY GO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TODAY FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET CLOSE
TO MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTREME SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES JUST OUT OF THE AREA. ON TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL MEANDER
NORTH JUST FAR ENOUGH TO GO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORCING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT TO GENERATE
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL SETUP
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NAM/CANADIAN FARTHER NORTH AND GFS/ECMWF
FARTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW WENT LIKELY POPS SOUTH HALF BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS NORTH. WILL LIKELY ADJUST THESE
POPS AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

CUT MOS TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
AROUND. OTHERWISE STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA ON THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT
DEVIATE AT THIS TIME. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH IN FORM OF
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AFT 040900Z.

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND A FEW LINGERING CU CLOUDS WERE FOUND ALONG WITH IT.
AS HEATING CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TROUGH PASSES...THE
CU IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON NW WINDS.

BY 00Z HEATING WILL BE LOST AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL BE A GOOD SET UP FOR FOG...PARTICULARLY AT
LAF...AS RAIN FELL THERE LAST NIGHT AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...HUF
AND BMG WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT COOLER. AT THAT TIME
SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY
COLUMN WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS EXPECTED
A RETURN TO VFR WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MORNING FOG DISSIPATES
WITH SCT CU DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP


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