Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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824
FXUS63 KIND 240844
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
445 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Aviation Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

An upper trough over the great lakes will bring cool and
dry weather through early next week.   A weak upper disturbance
will bring an isolated shower or thundershowers to some areas
late Monday.

Warmer weather will return later next week as a southerly
flow increases.  A few thunderstorms are possible as gulf
moisture returns and a cold front approaches from the northwest
later next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Dry and cool weather will occur today and tonight as high
pressure over the northern plains builds southeast.
Superblend temperatures accepted.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Monday Night/...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A dry secondary cold front will move through Sunday.
Temperatures will be quite cool as models indicate
850 temperatures as low as +4 degrees by Monday evening.

High pressure over the northern plains will bring dry
weather as it builds towards Kentucky.  However a
weak upper disturbance will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms
northwest half Monday afternoon.  Will also mention a slight
chance of showers Monday evening west and southwest.

Superblend temperatures seem reasonable...only minor tweaks made.


&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Friday)...

Issued at 150 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

The consensus forecast from Region will be used high confidence
through Wednesday, but lower confidence later.

Early in the period, the deterministic models agree well about a
relatively simple pattern.  For Tuesday through Wednesday,
adjustments to temperature forecasts made today should be 2 degrees
or less. Adjustments to todays POPs should be 10 percent or less.

Thursday and Friday there are differences between the American and
European models in handling a front crossing Indiana. The
differences aren`t huge,  but are sufficient to cause potential
temperatures of 3 degrees and POP errors of 10-20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 240900Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Minor tweaks made to KIND TAf to better match current conditions.
No other changes are needed at this time.  Previous aviation
discussion follows...

Some concern about fog development overnight given recent rainfall,
but with drier air advecting in, confidence is low in any
sustained visibility restrictions at this time.

Diurnal cloud development 030-035 expected by the late morning hours
of Saturday. Surface winds 290-310 degrees at 6-9 kts overnight will
back slightly to 280-300 degrees and increase to 12-15 kts by midday
Saturday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JAS/JH



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