Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281853
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
253 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 950 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM THE FORMER
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS DRIFTS OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A TAD ON THE
WARM SIDE WHILE THE NAM MOS LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT WITH AN UPDATED
BLEND OF MOS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGHS WHICH APPEARS RIGHT ON
TRACK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS MORNING. HIGHS LOW 80S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WILL KEEP TONIGHT/S FORECAST DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
ON...ALTHOUGH MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AROUND.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL. PROGGED INSTABILITY
THIS WEEKEND NOT EXCESSIVE...BUT PROBABLY ADEQUATE FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART...SO NO MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER THE INFLUENCE OF MOISTURE FROM ERIKA NOW LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
COME INTO PLAY IN THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY DURING THE WEEK. WITH
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD BRINGING SOME ENERGY AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
AND BRING MOISTURE NORTH THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO FOLLOW THAT TREND AND
INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INITIALIZATION FOLLOWED THIS TREND AS
WELL AND JUST NEEDED SOME QUALITY CONTROL TWEAKS. TEMPERATURE-WISE
LOOKING AT HIGHS JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FROM THE
INITIALIZATION AND THESE LOOK GOOD. HIGHS IN THE 90S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT SHOULD ONLY BE ATTAINABLE IF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
DOESN/T MAKE IT THIS WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AND
CEILINGS SHOULD DROP BUT REMAIN VFR. THINK THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP
TO 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BUT SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS BY MIDMORNING SATURDAY. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP



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