Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280229
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
929 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
SNOW TO NORTHERN SECTIONS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURS IN THE SOUTH.

IN THE LONG TERM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR
REGION POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS FREEZING RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AND DRY AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLOUDS ACROSS OUR EAST AND SOUTH...WHILE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE THE RULE ELSEWHERE.  MIDDLE CLOUDS WERE
EXPANDING EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS
WHILE NORTHERN SECTIONS REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.  CUT TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY NORTH DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.  EXPECT LOWS FROM
ABOUT 3 BELOW ACROSS OUR NORTH TO ABOUT 10 ABOVE FAR SOUTH.

SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ON TO THE EAST AND
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S NORTH
TO NEAR 30 SOUTH.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS INDICATE LOTS OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO OUR REGION ALONG
WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVE INTO OUR REGION. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SNOW
AMOUNTS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER THIS RUN. BUT SOME WARM
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT MAINLY AS SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN FAR SOUTH
BY SUNDAY MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
AREAS TO THE NORTH OF INDY STAY AS MOSTLY SNOW.  TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 6 INCHES NORTH TO 4 INCHES INDY
AREA TO ABOUT AN INCH FAR SOUTH.  SINCE MOST OF OUR PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR IN THE 4TH PERIOD...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL ISSUE A SPS INSTEAD.

ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRY BUT COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
MONDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...CUT MOS TEMPERATURES A LITTLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...MAINLY WENT TO LEAN TOWARD COLDER MODEL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL ALLOW
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY ARRIVE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS STILL ARE BRINGING IN WARM AIR ALOFT
QUICKLY...SO MIXED PRECIPITATION TO FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE COLD TUESDAY MORNING SO KEPT
THE FREEZING RAIN MENTION THEN. AS WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE FINALLY
ARRIVES RAIN WILL FALL LATER TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. COULD BE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN
THE FROZEN GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

MODELS DIFFER IN SPEED OF COLD AIR RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL
FEEL IT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS WARRANTED AS PRECIPITATION TYPE
MOST AREAS. AS A WAVE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTHWEST AND RAIN/SNOW SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 927 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

0225Z UPDATE...ONLY UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CIRRUS SHIELD COVERAGE
TO OVERCAST. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10KT. MFVR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE VERY END OF THE
TAF PERIOD...OR JUST OUTSIDE IT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE ALREADY INDICATED
-SHSN AND MVFR CEILINGS AROUND THIS TIME AND/OR MVFR VIS/S.
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE FURTHER TOWARD 06Z SAT NIGHT
TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR.

OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND
THEN SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10KT SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...SMF

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