Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 262027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
426 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT AT TIMES THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY AS A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE IN
THE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT TIMES. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE AS SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA. EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF
CONSOLIDATION TO OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT PUSHES
EAST/SOUTHEAST...BUT SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION BEYOND MULTICELL
LINES AND CLUSTERS APPEARS UNLIKELY. FAIRLY STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST AT LEAST A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT AND
PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE GUST IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BULK OF STORMS MAY
PRODUCE AMPLE AMOUNTS OF NONSEVERE HAIL.

BOW ECHO NEAR ST LOUIS METRO AT THIS TIME MAY CLIP THE
SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL POSE AT LEAST
SOME THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...HOW MUCH MAY BE DETERMINED BY
WHETHER THE AIR IS SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER BY ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA FOR A TIME LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST LATE AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

AS STRONGER SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MERITED DURING THAT TIME. WITH SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BIT LESS DIURNAL HEATING PRIOR TO
THE MOST WIDESPREAD STORMS...AGAIN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE MERITED AND DAY 2 OUTLOOK HANDLES THIS WELL.

SOME SHOWER AND AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT WILL BE
MERITED THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE ARE SLOW TO
PASS THE REGION.

CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE THROUGHOUT BASED ON
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR
MOST ITEMS.

ALL MODELS SPREAD RAIN INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET WET AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA FRIDAY EVENING MOVEES EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY.  DOWNPLAYED THUNDER
CHANCES SATURDAY AS SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY STABLE THEN...EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE 12Z EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AS ONE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE MUCH OF
ANYTHING TUESDAY AS THE NEW EURO AND GFS ARE DRY. HOWEVER WILL
COMPROMISE SOME WITH SUPERBLEND AND KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCES MOST
AREAS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURESS STAYED CLOSE TO SUPER BLEND NUMBERS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S SOUTH AROUND SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 262100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG A FRONT
THAT IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH AT THE
KIND TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 270200Z OR SO AS CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR
FRONT AND THE NORTHERN END OF COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES THROUGH.

SURFACE WINDS MAY BE RATHER VARIABLE AT THE KIND TERMINAL INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS GIVEN CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY...BUT SHOULD SETTLE INTO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATER THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MVFR CEILINGS WITH STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD AS A THUNDERTORMS COMPLEX OVER MISSOURI MOVES OUR WAY.  THIS
COMPLEX WILL REACH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO ABOUT 01Z-02Z THIS EVENING.
WILL MENTION TEMPO TSRA KIND AND KHUF SOUTHWARD.  AFTER THAT COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF VFR...BUT AREAS OF STRATUS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT ON.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BY LATE MORNING AND ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND BECOME NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KNOTS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/JAS



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