Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 140827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

COOL MORNING WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 40S OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 07Z...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS NEARING THE 40 DEGREE MARK.

INITIAL FOCUS THROUGH DAYBREAK ARE THE TEMPS AND LOCALIZED FOG.
EXPECT NORMAL COOL SPOTS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD NEAR DAYBREAK WITH PATCHY FOG AS TEMPS APPROACH THE
DEWPOINTS. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFTER DAYBREAK...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A PLEASANT DAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS
INDICATE A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE REMAINS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS EXPECTED OTHER THAN A FEW CU AND THIN CIRRUS.

TEMPS...WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND
THIS SHOULD ENABLE TEMPS TO WARM ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES OVER SATURDAY
HIGHS. MOS GUIDANCE MATCHED UP LOW LEVEL THERMALS WELL AND WERE
UTILIZED...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS AS OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL TIMING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN AN INFLUENCE INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH
JUST A SUBTLE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE
DRY AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE
700-800MB LAYER NOT ADVECTING INTO MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FOCUSED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ALOFT. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK QUICKLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FOCUSED NORTH OF I-70 ROUGHLY BETWEEN 20Z
MONDAY AND 04Z TUESDAY WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH
700MB WILL BE ALIGNED. BUMPED TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
WABASH VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEPART QUICKLY EAST WITH THE FRONT AND
WAVE ALOFT MONDAY EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO BE DRY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE RAPIDLY ADVECTS BACK INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH FOR
TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE...
PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHEAST FLOW MAY
PROMOTE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...WITH SOME SUN ANTICIPATED MONDAY...TOOK A BLEND OF THE
WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET AS HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCALES. MAV LOOKED REASONABLE FOR TUESDAY
HIGHS CONSIDERING LOW LEVEL THERMALS. LEANED TOWARDS COOL END OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. NEAR MAV FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT COOL AND DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS OUR REGION...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  IT WILL BECOME DRY AND
WARMER NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS OUR REGION.

SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST BY LATE
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  WILL ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FAR NORTHWEST TO ACCOMMODATE THIS.
EXPECT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS JUST AFTER DAY 7 AS THIS NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY AND RAISED
THEM SLIGHTLY DAY 7. OTHERWISE...MODEL INITIALIZATION TEMPERATURES
SEEMED REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 140900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REACHED DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SUNDAY IN THE RURAL AREAS...SO EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP
THERE. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
YET...BUT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD ARE QUITE NARROW ALREADY...SO
SHOULD SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP SOON. THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
IFR RESTRICTIONS APPEAR TO BE AFTER 140800Z BASED ON EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS. THE MOISTURE LAYER LOOKS TO BE VERY
SHALLOW...SO THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE.

SOME LIMITED DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 035 EXPECTED TOWARDS
MIDDAY. NO WIND ISSUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JAS/JH

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