Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211441
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1037 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK...REBOUNDING TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER NRN MO...NRN ILL INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. A SHORT WAVE
ALOFT WAS IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH THIS FEATURE...COVERING MOST OF THE STATE.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE SHORT WAVE EXITING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT WITH
IT. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN BY LAT AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH A DIMINISHING TREND OF LOWER LEVEL SATURATION. THUS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AREAS
TO THE NW OF INDY LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST TIME IN THE SUN TODAY DUE
TO WEST TO EAST CLEARING...HAVE RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN THE
LAF..OKK AND CRAWFORDSVILLE AREAS.

REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
WEAK LIFT WITH THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. THUS WILL
GO DRY AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS. OVERALL THE NIGHT WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY
CLEAR THOUGH. MAV MOS LOOKS REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA ON FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A FEW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT.

GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUD WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ALOFT. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ALOFT AND WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY...SO
REMOVED ALL POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG TERM AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES NEXT FEW DAYS.  A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE STALLED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REST OF THE LONG TERM.

DURING THIS TIME WE WILL BE UNDER A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY MOVES ON TO THE EAST COAST.
GFS AND GEMNH MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER SPREADING PRECIPITATION
INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY. ALSO CAPES ARE QUITE LOW UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY...SO DOWNPLAYED MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REST OF THE LONG
TERM WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEST AND NORTHWEST MONDAY.

TWEAKED SUPER BLEND MAX TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO SOME AREAS
FROM MONDAY ON...AS MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING CLOUDS A LITTLE WITH THE
FRONT STAYING TO OUR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

EARLIER MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 012 ARE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE
KIND TERMINAL TO THE SOUTHEAST.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 035 CURRENTLY EXTEND BACK INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THESE
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KIND...SO
PUSHED BACK THE SCATTERING OUT OF THESE CEILINGS BY SEVERAL HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WILL GRADUALLY DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING. KBMG AND KHUF MAY
START OUT MVFR CEILINGS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING LATE TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 KNOTS TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/JAS

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