Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250755
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
355 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Synopsis...Near Term and Short Term sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

High pressure along the New England coast will dominate our weather
through most of Wednesday.  Low pressure over the central plains
will move into the great lakes late Wednesday and a trailing cold
front will move east across Indiana late Wednesday night and early
Thursday.

Another low pressure system and associated frontal systems will
affect our weather late this week and the through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Satelitte indicated an area of low clouds has spread across a large
part of east central Indiana...while only high thin clouds were the
rule elsewhere.  These clouds may be an issue over eastern sections
this morning as some low level moisture has worked into the region.
These clouds will mix out by midday and mostly sunny skies will be
the rule this afternoon.

Overall quiet weather will occur through tonight with nigh pressure
off the new England coast and another ridge of high pressure
extending south from the Ohio valley.  Model soundings indicate
there will be increasing clouds over west and northwest sections
later tonight ahead of next system.

Highs today will range from the lower and middle 70s over northeast
sections to almost 80 southwest.   Lows tonight will range from the
middle and upper 50s east to near 60 west.  In most cases stayed
close to a MOS blend on temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday Night/...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Low pressure over the upper midwest early Thursday will track into
the great lakes by Thursday and a trailing cold front will move east
across Indiana late Wednesday night and early Thursday.

Wednesday will be quite warm and mostly dry with an increasing
southerly flow across Indiana.   Models indicate 850 MB temperatures
from +13 to +16 and highs will reach the upper 70s over northwest
sections and lower 80s central and southeast half.  Could see some
middle 80s southeast.

Models have trended a little slower in spreading precipitation
chances our way and will only see a slight chance of storms far west
late Wednesday.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday night as a cold front
approaches from the west.  The NAM seems to be the slow outlier as
it brings it only into our west Wednesday night and across the rest
of our region Thursday.  Most other models are a little faster and
will go with a GFS...Euro and Canadian blend with the bulk of the
rain occurring over western sections later Wednesday night and
central and eastern sections Thursday morning.   Will go with likely
POPS for these areas.    Will end showers from the west Thursday
afternoon as the cold front moves to the east and a weak high
pressure ridge builds in late Thursday and Thursday night.   Will
mention a chance of thunder Wednesday night with MU capes of 1,000
J/KG and a slight chance east half Thursday morning.   Thursday
night will be dry with a weak ridge of high pressure across our area.

Superblend temperatures are a bit too warm Thursday with clouds and
precipitation early Thursday and cold advection.  Otherwise...went
close to a MOS blend on temperatures most other periods.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

An active period continues to be expected late in the week and into
early next week across central Indiana.

Numerous periods of shower and thunderstorm chances are expected
with a large and strong area of low pressure developing over the
southern plains and gradually pushing into the Great Lakes over the
weekend. The area will be in the warm sector of this developing
cyclone throughout the weekend until cold frontal passage sometime
Sunday night. The attendant closed upper low may bring showers to
the area post cold front into early next week.

The potential will exist for several rounds of thunderstorms, some
of which may produce heavy rainfall. This could pose a hydrologic
threat which will require monitoring as the week wears on and
additional model runs occur. Current soil moisture values are
relatively low, but could be increased by earlier convection this
week.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 250600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1240 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

VFR conditions expected. However low chances for MVFR near 12Z at
KIND/KBMG still exist.

Still expect some lower VFR clouds to move west into KIND/KBMG, with
perhaps some mid cloud reaching the other sites. While most model
data now indicates VFR, existence of ceilings near MVFR upstream
still leads to some uncertainty as to whether these will impact
KIND/KBMG later during the night.

For now just went low VFR ceilings at those 2 sites for a few hours
around 12Z. Any lower VFR ceilings should break up during the
daylight morning hours of Tuesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50/JH



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