Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 210901
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
401 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM...AND AVIATION SECTIONS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW TRAVERSE THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1102 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CI
STREAMING HIGH ALOFT AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT. PREESSURE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND WIND HAVE
BECOME LIGHT.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON
FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE AFT 00Z SAT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...RESULTING IN VFR CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP/JH

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