Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 090730
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION PROVIDING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY FRIDAY EVENING ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...QUIET WEATHER WILL
BE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A TAD LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH WINDS TURNING
MORE NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE FIRST FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH
SOILS BEGINNING TO DRY OUT FROM RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK...AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FOG THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

OTHER THAN THAT...QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST
COUPLE DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN PLACE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS FOR THURSDAY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AS NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS PERSIST.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...THE NEXT FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS
POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT
BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST FOR THIS TIME AND INCREASED CHANCES INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO RAMP UP ON FRIDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD BRINGING
FORECAST HIGHS A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...LOW 80S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN AS LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THUS WILL HAVE TO CARRY SEVERAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM AS
THIS LOW SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL
AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
SMALLER AIRPORTS ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME MVFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER
08Z TO AROUND 13Z  DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS. HOWEVER...WEST WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP IND
VFR.

SHOULD SEE SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU AFTER 15Z ALONG WITH  NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AGAIN AFTER
01Z WITH A LIGHT TO CALM WIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...MK

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