000
FXUS63 KIND 300828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
328 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY|/...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HEARD A REPORT EARLIER OF SOME VERY LIGHT
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH THE MAIN STORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF A SFC TROUGH THAT
HAS PUSHED WELL INTO OHIO AS OF THIS WRITING. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN
ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY WORKING TOWARD THE EASTERN LAKES WILL REMAIN
ENE OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STILL COULD SEE
A STRAY SHOWER/FLURRY GIVEN LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPS IN
THE LOWEST 2 KFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE -10C LAYER SUGGEST
HOLDING WITH MIXED PRECIP (FLURRIES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) THE WAY TO GO
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

A MORE IMPRESSIVE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO BY 12Z FRI) IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. 925-850
MB FLOW VEERING TO NEAR 340 DEGREES IN TANDEM WITH LAKE MI-8H TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS PUSHING THE UPPER TEENS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE MI TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIALLY REACHING
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION/IMPACT ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...DRY/CLOUDY WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING GRADUAL BUILD IN OF LOW LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO THIN/BREAK UP STRATOCUMULUS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY BUT
RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS ON SATURDAY AS WEAK WAA/SW
FLOW COMMENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE LONG TERM.  THE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING LONG SNOW SUNDAY WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE COLD. TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY AND A LITTLE WARMER AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ON TO THE EAST
AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION.

BOTH THE GFS AND GEMNH MODEL BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE EURO IS ABOUT 18 TO 24 HOURS SLOWER.  PREFER THE
FASTER GFS AND GEMNH MODEL AS THE EURO SEEMS TO HOLD UP THE NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TOO LONG.

WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE COLD FRONT.  FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISE TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
MENTION A CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOST AREAS WILL
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SNOW COVER. OTHERWISE...A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE FOR MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
EXTENSIVE CEILINGS 030-035 EXTEND WELL UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL
AREA...BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH
MOISTURE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...PREFER TO HOLD ONTO BROKEN
CEILINGS THROUGH MIDDAY ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT APPEARS WINDS MAY PICK UP AGAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM 300-320
DEGREES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN
OFF...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL VEER TO 330-350 DEGREES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
NEAR TERM...STEINWEDEL/NIELD
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JAS/JH

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