Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 271346
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
946 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE UPSWING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS READINGS PUSH TOWARD AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 937 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

1430Z UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS MORNING/S
FORECAST UPDATE. FORECAST APPEARS TO BE A IN GOOD SHAPE AND ON
TRACK FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 70S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

EXPECT AMPLE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TODAY PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S BUT A
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO CAP OFF THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. WHILE THE TEXT WILL LIKELY COME OUT IN THE BROAD
PARTLY CLOUDY CATEGORY...WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON.

THAT SAID...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH THIS
CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HALF AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF. CONSENSUS
NUMBERS WERE ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING...WITH MINOR
UPWARD TWEAKS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD AS A WEAK SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE AS TO COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL PRECIP OVER
THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY PRESENT. WILL HAVE TO CARRY LOW PRECIP CHANCES
SATURDAY ONWARD...BUT CANNOT JUSTIFY MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS
TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO COOL FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PER RECENT TRENDS AND LOW LEVEL THERMALS...WHICH ALSO
SUGGESTED CONSENSUS MINS WERE A DEGREE OR SO WARM. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

TYPICAL LATE SUMMER REGIME SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AS
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

REMNANTS OF UPPER WAVE TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY AS MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U S. PRESENCE OF THE
NEARBY WAVE ALOFT AND A WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION SUPPORTS
MAINTAINING AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT
MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LIKELY TO IMPACT LOCATIONS IN FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST U S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND TRACK REMAIN HIGHLY SPECULATIVE AT THIS POINT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS HERE LOCALLY THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGING ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW LIMITING ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE WITH A VERY WARM AND DRY FORECAST
WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KBMG EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

STRATUS CONTINUES TO DRIFT S/SE ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. BULK OF THE CLOUDS FOCUSED EAST OF
THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
FURTHER INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BUT PRESENCE OF LINGERING LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ALONG WITH FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD
ENABLE DIURNAL CU FORMATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GREATEST AT KBMG AND KIND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL
TROUGH...BUT OVERALL THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN THAT
EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY.

CU WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET WITH JUST PERIODIC THIN CIRRUS
DRIFTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KBMG...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG ISSUES LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EASTERLY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.