000
FXUS63 KIND 042049
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
349 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY TONIGHT. AN
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW
TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND CHANCES FOR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND AND COULD REACH NORMAL LEVELS BY
FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY AND SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST NEAR DAYBREAK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THINK LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN THE
COLDER MAV AND WARMER MET NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 346 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ARE
BOTH VERY WEAK OVER EVEN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSEST TO THE BEST FORCING. THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT...BUT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...WITH THE BEST OF ALL MOISTURE AND FORCING STAYING WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. THUS WILL FAVOR THE MUCH DRIER POPS OF THE MAV
GUIDANCE. THESE STILL LEAVE VERY LOW CHANCES IN THE NORTH BUT THINK
THIS IS BEST IN CASE THE BEST FORCING MOVES FURTHER SOUTH THAN
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING. WILL ALSO CARRY CHANCE FOR FLURRIES
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO
OF THE AREA. A SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THIS SHOULD DRAW ANY ADDITIONAL
FORCING/MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER THROUGHOUT GIVEN THE GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL TREND TOWARD
WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS AT NIGHT AND COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE EXTENDED.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING SOUTHERN INDIANA BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND AN UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWING SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PER THE REGIONAL BLEND LOOK
GOOD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN ON SATURDAY WITH A CHANGE TO
SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE ON AS THE 00Z ECMWF
BRINGS A STRONG SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH...WEAKER AND
FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT THAT FAR
OUT...WENT WITH THE REGIONAL BLEND WITH CHANCE POPS AND ALL RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE DRY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH IF AT ALL FROM REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL START OFF A BIT BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN
NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/21Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AFTER TOWARD 18Z WEDNESDAY AT LAF AND
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY AT IND...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
AND THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TDUD/MK
AVIATION...MK/JH

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