000
FXUS63 KIND 291721
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
121 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS
IN THE WEST ABOUT 2 DEGREES.  THIS WAS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND PUTS THEM A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER
FLOW. CONSIDERING THE PATH OF THE SHORT WAVE...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS ONLY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST WITH NO
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LARGELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DESPITE A RELATIVELY SUNNY MORNING...CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A VFR CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 70S ARE REACHED THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH COMBINED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW AND WILL KEEP ALL TERMINALS DRY
AT THIS TIME.

CU SHOULD SCATTER TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY
AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE AGAIN REACHED. OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY KBMG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. W/NW WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN

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