000
FXUS63 KIND 230251
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE BRIDGING FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. A SERIES OF MINOR LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS TOP THE REBUILDING WESTERN US RIDGE TO REDEVELOP THE
EASTERN TROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A RETURN TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER.

AN INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY RESORT LIKE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OR
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DRY-OUT AND COOL DOWN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

BASED ON EVENING CONVECTIVE/RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE...HAVE
PUSHED POPS BACK SEVERAL HOURS AND LOWERED THEM. STRONGEST
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WHERE DYNAMICS ARE STRONGER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND
ENOUGH TO IMPACT NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...BUT
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ISSUE OF CONCERN IS STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CURRENT WARM CAP ALOFT
MAY HELP INHIBIT WHATEVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OUT WEST.
COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT STORM ARRIVAL AND STABILIZING TEMPS AND
STRONGEST FORCING REMAINING IN THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT
DIMINISHING LINE OF STORMS/SHOWERS TO MOVE TO NEAR I-70 BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 EXCEPT WHERE ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DROP MINS TO UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS UNCERTAIN BUT
LOCAL HALF INCH DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTINESS WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS
BUT THESE SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEDNESDAY...ISSUE IS HOW LONG RAIN THREAT LINGERS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BLEND FOR GOOD FORECAST.

INITIAL THRUST OF CONVECTION SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SOUTH DURING
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCATIONS
NORTHWEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO MUNCIE LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE
ALREADY SEEN RAIN THREAT ENDED. SOUTH OF THERE...MORNING HEATING
WILL RENEW STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
GREATEST GROWTH IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH...SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS
WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL ENOUGH
ENERGY TO BUILD THAT LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN
OUR SOUTHERN MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
NO ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND DROPS DEWPOINTS BACK TO LOWER 50S...MIN TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S...AND MAX TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED TO THE OHIO RIVER BEGINS
GETTING PULLED BACK NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE PLAINS
BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY BUT NO STORMS BEFORE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

UNUSUALLY LARGE STRONG WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
GOING TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SUCH WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY EASY FOR THE MODELS TO FORECAST. GIVEN THEIR FORECASTS
ARE CLOSE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL WORK OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THAN AT OTHER TIMES.  THE REASON IS A FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...AND EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS FRONT PASSES AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO LOW
PROBABILITY AND UNCERTAIN FOR INCLUSION.

QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT LAF/HUF. EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THESE STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN...AND WILL ONLY CARRY VCSH AT
IND/BMG VS. VCTS AT THE OTHER TWO SITES.

FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WINDS WILL SWING TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH
IN ITS WAKE TOMORROW...WITH ONLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND
SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...NIELD

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