Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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782
FXUS63 KIND 051713
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
113 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AS AN UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION THOUGH SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY MID MORNING. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE
AREA. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON|/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS...KEEPING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA.
RADAR SHOWS A FEW WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO...STREAMING INTO
EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR SHOWED A LARGE OMEGA
BLOCK WEST OF INDIANA....WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OVER
KENTUCKY.

MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE
TODAY...PUSHING FARTHER AWAY FROM CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO WANE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A VERY SLOW DECREASING CLOUDINESS TYPE OF FORECAST. GIVEN
THE ONGOING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OHIO...HAVE INCLUDED A FEW
LOW CHC FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER TEMPS. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN THIS AND LAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR
SATURDAY.

FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S/LOW
80S ON SATURDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV FOR
SATURDAY AS SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION FILTERS INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THAT
FRONT...WHICH WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA SATURDAY WILL
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND KENTUCKY SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK TO NORTH ACROSS INDIANA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR
REGION.  WILL GO DRY THERE SUNDAY...OTHERWISE WILL MENTION AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOST OTHER PERIODS AND LIKELY POPS SOME AREAS
AROUND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL REST OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.  LOWS WILL BE 50 TO 55 SUNDAY NIGHT AND
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN MOST CASES STAYED
CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR WITHIN THE FIRST
1-2 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.

AS COMPACT UPPER LOW DEPARTS THE AREA...BEGINNING TO SEE EROSION OF
THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. LAF WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST TO GO
VFR...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY HUF...AND THEN IND/BMG A BIT LATER.

WINDS MAY THEN BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY AS MIXED LAYER DEPTH INCREASES
WITH MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE 20KT OR LESS.

GUSTS WILL DIE OFF TONIGHT AND WINDS MAY EVEN GO BRIEFLY CALM AT
OUTLYING SITES UNDER CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT A BIT OF LIGHT FOG BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS THIS IS
STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD



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