Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 201109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
608 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

It will be mild with periodic shower chances through the middle of
next week. Then, more seasonable weather will return to the Ohio
valley late next week.


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 608 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Latest radar pictures had the back edge ofthe rain shield from about
Greensburg to Indianapolis to Lafayette. So, forecast on track with
the highest pops northeast and slight chance pops southwest.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Solid area of showers was lifting northeast across the Ohio Valley
and Great Lakes overnight along and north of a warm front that
extended from southeastern Illinois to the Smokies to the Atlantic
Ocean. Aloft, a negatively-tilted trough was pivoting northeast
across the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys.

Models in good agreement that the upper trough will lift northeast
into the lower Great Lakes this afternoon as the warm front moves to
northern Indiana. As this occurs, model time rh sections are showing
nice drying above 850 millibars with precipitable water numbers
dropping to three quarters of an inch, down from 1 to 1.2 inches
overnight. Thus, rain will be ending from southwest to northeast
noon or earlier. Areas of fog will dissipate behind the warm front
this afternoon.

Upstream temperatures and low level thermal progs support mild highs
in the 50s per MOS blend despite thick clouds.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/...
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Precipitation chances and temperatures will continue to be the main
short term issues.

Models are handling the main synoptic features rather well this
weekend, so model blend is preferred. Yet another southwestern upper
system will rotate northeast tonight. However, this one will be a
bit further to the west than the previous ones and not have as much
moisture to work with. Thus, went with a slight chance of showers
tonight near and north of a Terre Haute to Evansville line. The
clouds will hang around tonight under an inversion per model rh time
sections and soundings. With thick clouds and mild low level thermal
progs, will go warmer than MOS blend with overnight temperatures
only dropping to the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Yet another southwestern upper low will move to the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles late Saturday. An impulse or two will eject
northeast ahead of this feature across the Ohio Valley Saturday
afternoon and night. This could result in scattered showers and
possibly even a thunderstorm or two over south central Indiana.

Finally, this upper low will move east across the southern states
Sunday and Sunday night. Moisture and warmer temperatures will be
drawn north ahead of the low and bring more shower chances to the
area through the weekend along with afternoon highs in the upper 50s
and mid 60s on Saturday. Sunday will not be much cooler than
Saturday. Normal highs for this time of year are only in the mid 30s.


.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 327 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

The extended period will start out with some rain showers on
Monday as an upper low continues its track from the Southeast U.S.
northward along the east coast. The showers will quickly end late
Monday evening though as that low pushes farther east. After a dry
period from Monday night through Tuesday, the next low pressure
system will bring another round of rain starting Tuesday
afternoon. Rain will be the predominant precipitation type through
Wednesday, but as colder air filters in behind the associated
upper low, there will be a transition to a wintry mix on Wednesday
night. Additional waves aloft will keep low precipitation chances
in the forecast mainly across the northern counties through
Thursday night, did not deviate from latest Superblend.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 20/12Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 511 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Good confidence that IFR or worse flying conditions will persist
through at least 17z, if not most of the time as low level moisture
will be trapped beneath an inversion. Meanwhile, moderate to high
confidence showers will be ending 16z-18z.

Winds will become south and southwest early and less than 10 knots
as a warm front moves through.





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