Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 020818

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
318 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016


The Long Term section has been updated below.


Issued at 253 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

High pressure will build in and provide dry weather into Saturday,
but then a series of systems will bring precipitation chances to
central Indiana about every other day from Sunday into Thursday.
Seasonable temperatures will give way to colder than average
readings after mid-week next week.


.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 253 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Much of the forecast area remained under lower clouds early this
morning with the area remaining in cyclonic flow and with cold air
aloft. The exception is the far southwest forecast area where some
clearing has occurred.

Not expecting much change in the sky cover today for most areas, as
another slug of colder air aloft rotates down across the area. The
far southwest may remain partly cloudy, but any part of the
southeast that scatters out early this morning should fill back in.

Thus will continue with cloudy to mostly cloudy skies today. Stayed
close to MOS for temperatures.


.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday night/
Issued at 253 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Warmer temperatures will gradually move in and cyclonic flow will
ease tonight, so allowed skies to become partly cloudy by Saturday
morning. High pressure will then keep the area partly cloudy and dry
during the day Saturday.

Clouds will thicken up Saturday night ahead of an upper wave. Lift
begins overnight Saturday night as the wave approaches, but the
lower atmosphere should take a while to moisten up. Thus only expect
some low PoPs across the southwest then.

As the wave moves across the area Sunday, isentropic lift will move
across the area and an upper jet will provide additional forcing.
Bumped up the intialization`s PoPs a bit based on this forcing and
the QPF models are putting out. Thus went likely far northeast and
chance PoPs elsewhere.

Forcing will quickly exit the area so only slight chance PoPs are
expected far northeast Sunday evening.

Precipitation type will vary with the heating of the day with this
system. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow late Saturday
night into Sunday morning, then temperatures will warm enough for
rain for the area by afternoon. A return to a mix is possible by
Sunday evening. Any snow accumulations look to be less than an inch
and confined mainly to the far northwest forecast area where the
coolest temperatures are expected.


.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Models suggest at least two systems to impact the area during the
work week.

The first appears likely to bring all rain to the area as low level
thermals remain relatively warm. The second is likely to be
accompanied by the first winter blast of cold air, and may bring a
light snowfall to the area Wednesday night into Thursday. The first
light accumulating snowfall of the season cannot be ruled out if the
GFS were to verify...but the Euro is slower with the arrival of the
colder air and thus less bullish on snowfall potential.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 020600z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1141 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016

Good confidence that stratocu will hang around most if not all of
the TAF period under the influence of low level cyclonic flow and an
inversion. Could see some clearing from southwest to northeast
toward 06z Saturday. Confidence is more toward MVFR through 13z or
so at HUF and BMG and after 20z at IND and LAF, per late evening
trends and the GFS lamp.

Winds will continue to have a westerly component 5 to 8 knots
through the TAF period.





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