Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 190738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
338 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

High pressure over the eastern United States will control Indiana
weather into Saturday.  A weak cold front is forecast to cross our
state Sunday. A much stronger cold front should pass Tuesday. For
the middle of next week high pressure is going to return to


.NEAR TERM (Tonight)...

Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

There is very strong model agreement high pressure will cause clear
weather. The models also agree with on factors that will drive the
temperature forecast. Based on recent history a MAV/MET consensus
should work with expected errors of 2 degrees or less.


.SHORT TERM (Thursday through Saturday)...

Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

With good model agreement high pressure will cause mostly clear
skies and mild temperatures. there are no major forecast problems.

Both deterministic fields and statistical processes from the various
models support the consensus temperature forecast. It can be used
with expected errors of 3 degrees or less.


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...

Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Big changes coming to the region early to mid-week.

Models are in good agreement in sharp, high amplitude mid/upper
level trough entering the center of the CONUS Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Mid/upper level low is expected to develop over
the southern Plains/lower MS Valley region creating a split flow
over the Ohio Valley. This feature is expected to continue
eastward through the southern states as its kicker in the form of
a another high amplitude trough moves into the upper Great Lakes
southward into the mid MS Valley on Monday. By Tuesday evening
a mid/upper level low will develop over the IL/IN/OH region.

Large band of light/moderate rain will be moving into the region
by Sunday afternoon ahead of the first strong cold front, as a
surface low develops in association with the lower MS Valley
trough, around southeast MO/southern IL. Moderate low level flow
of up to 40 kts will run northeast ahead of the front enhancing
moisture/warm advection into the area. Thus, expect that
strong/severe weather be possible south of Indiana, but will
increase the impact of moderate/locally heavy rain across parts
of central IN into Sunday night.

Second strong cold frontal boundary is expected as it drops
southeast Monday night and as a strong mid/upper level jet stream
drops southward over the northern high Plains then eastward over
the Tennessee Valley, bringing with it the coolest air of the
season. Cloudy, rainy weather will continue to be the main
impacts along with occasional gusty winds with the frontal passage
Monday going into Tuesday.

The temperatures will be mild to start the week on Sunday with
highs in the low-mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s Monday morning,
then dropping into the mid 50s for highs Wednesday with lows in
the low 40s throughout the region Wednesday morning, and upper
30s/lower 40s Thursday morning.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 190600Z TAFS/...
Issued at 108 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

No significant cloud cover and unrestricted visibility expected at
the terminals through midday Thursday. Surface winds 180-200 degrees
at 4-7 kts overnight will gradually veer around to 220-250 degrees
at 7-10 kts by midday Thursday.




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