Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 091840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING INDIANA FROM WEST TO EAST WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

SOME CUMULUS AND EVEN ISOLATED SPRINKLES WERE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THEY WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET.  SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER INDIANA
THROUGH TOMORROW...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME CUMULUS
ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PARENT MODELS AND DERIVED GUIDANCE ARE BOTH VERY CLOSE FOR
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST OUGHT TO
WORK WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLOWLY APPROACHES.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER.
RAIN WONT BE IN THE FORECAST BEFORE FRIDAY NIGHT.  NEITHER THE
EUROPEAN MODEL OR THE GFS HAS ANY QPF FRIDAY. THE NAM HAS A LITTLE
QPF BUT STABLE LIFTED INDICES AND ZERO CAPE. NO INSTABILITY STRONGLY
ARGUES AGAINST AN EARLY START TO PRECIPITATION.

FRIDAY NIGHT POPS FROM THE NAM MOS BECOME HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM THE
GFS. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH DEEP SATURATION OVER
THE AREA AND BOTH DEVELOP POSITIVE ADVECTION OF EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURE AT LOW LEVELS. GIVEN SEVERAL PHYSICAL FIELDS
CONSISTENT WITH RAIN THE WETTER MET POPS LOOK MORE LOGICAL. A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IS
MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD. THE MOS FROM THE DIFFERENT MODELS IS CLOSE AND
HAS BEEN STABLE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. WILL USE A CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

ANALYSIS OF 500 MB ANAMOLIES FROM THE ECMWF INDICATED MUCH BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO NEARLY 175 METERS BELOW
NORMAL WHICH INDIATES THAT MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOOKS LIKE BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS AGREE WITH THIS TREND
AS DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1228 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL U.S. HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SHOWING A LARGE CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPING WITH BASES OF 6K FEET TO 7K FEET AGL. THIS FIELD WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE UPPER 50S AT MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES OF
SURFACE DEW POINTS. THUS...WITH GENERALY CALM WINDS HAVE INCLUDED
SOME LIGHT FOG AT MOST SITES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THURSDAY FOR MORE VFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....DWM
AVIATION...DWM

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