Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 221832

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
232 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Elongated west-east mid/upper level trough centered over MO will
swing southeastward through tonight into TN extending southwest
into LA. Water Vapor imagery shows that southwest IN is now being
dry slotted at mid levels which is pushing any leftover
precipitation eastward. High pressure from the Plains into the
southwestern Great Lakes will clear our skies out after midnight
across the region.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

With precipitation moving out of the southern parts of our forecast
area this evening and skies clearing as High pressure moves into
the region, expect temperatures to fall into the lower-mid 40s
from north to south across the area. Only some lingering mid level
clouds should remain across our southern counties towards morning
with lightening northeasterly winds.


.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

High pressure will extend from the south central Great Lakes
southward into the lower MS valley keeping the area dry and
pleasant for the next few days. We will be between storm systems,
in fact with one moving up the east coast, and the next weather
system for us developing over the High Plains. Temperatures will
be around normal for Sunday with highs in the mid 60s/lows in the
mid 40s, then warm up a little each day into Tuesday with highs in
the low-mid 70s and lows around 50 degrees.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night Through Saturday/...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Ensembles suggest a short wave trough will lift through the western
Great Lakes around next Wednesday, accompanied by a surface frontal
system. Some of the members suggest front may stall out in the
vicinity into Thursday, due to developing upper ridge over the East
Coast. Will keep PoPs in the forecast for both Wednesday and
Thursday for now to cover the potential of a slower or stalling

Otherwise, there are still some differences among the ensembles as
to how strong the developing East Coast ridge becomes by the end of
next week. Overall, ensembles look very wet towards the end of next
week, so will continue PoPs for those days as well.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 22/1800Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1224 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Have been seeing reports of occasional MVFR conditions across
parts of southern IN as broad low pressure over central TN
continues to move slowly east. Northeast surface flow will be the
rule as well today. Mid-high clouds still cover central and
southern IN, and visible satellite imagery shows that clouds have
a convective look to them associated with the broad mid/upper
level circulation from s central IN back through southern IL into
central MO.

Clouds will be sticking around through the remainder of this
afternoon with clearing gradually occurring after 00Z, and mostly
clear by 23/1200Z.




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