Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 232048
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
348 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR
POTENTIAL FOR THE NEW YEAR.

INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM LOUISIANA INTO INDIANA
WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WRAPPING INTO THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEFORE
MORE RAIN ARRIVES SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW
ON ITS HEELS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THIS STORMS TRACK FAVORS
MEASURABLE SNOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO
SETTLE IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS ON SPEED AND TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO ITS IMPACT ON
CENTRAL INDIANA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS GULF SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE OHIO
RIVER BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH CURRENT NUMBERS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STRENGTHENING
STORM SYSTEM. MODELS STILL DIFFER IN DEVELOPMENT...TRACK AND SPEED
OF THIS SYSTEM TO KEEP CONFIDENCE MEDIUM VERSUS HIGH. HAVING SAID
THAT...WILL USE A BLEND TOWARD CANADIAN TRACK WHICH SEEMS AN AVERAGE
OF DIFFERENCES. TRACK OF 500 MB AND 700 MB SNOW STILL SUGGEST
HEAVIEST SNOW TRACK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS
WITH STRONGEST DYNAMICS LIFTING TOWARD CHICAGO THEN UPPER PORTIONS
OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE AN ONGOING STEADY RAIN. AS LATE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL
BEGIN TO MIX SNOW WITH THE RAIN FROM SULLIVAN NORTH TO LAFAYETTE
AFTER 4PM. TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL TAKE PLACE OVER A COUPLE
HOURS...OCCURRING AROUND 6-7PM IN INDIANAPOLIS BUT NOT UNTIL 8PM OR
SO FOR MUNCIE SOUTH TO SEYMOUR. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
FROM LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE EVENING
WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER ONE INCH AS SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS INTO
MICHIGAN.  AIR AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL HELP MELT
MOST SNOWFALL TO A SLUSH ON ROADWAYS WITH BETTER ACCUMULATION ON
GRASSY AREAS.  NOT EXPECTING SUB FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BEFORE EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. FAIRLY GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING
SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A MIX OF DATA SOURCES
AND RANGE FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING NORTHWEST TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING
SOUTHEAST. THESE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR SOME
SLIPPERY ROADS IN SPOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING OTHERWISE A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD BEGINS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS
INTO CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. WITH A BIT OF
LATE DAY SUNSHINE THURSDAY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH. WITH NO
STRONG INTRUSION OF COLD WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING WHILE SUNSHINE FRIDAY
WARMS HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

IN THE LONG TERM MODELS DIG A STRONG UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND BUILD AND UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION. THE NEW EURO HAS
TRENDED SOMEWHAT SLOWER AS IT DEVELOPS A COUPLE OF WAVES ALONG THE
FRONT WITH ONE LATE SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

WITH ALL THE MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WENT A LITTLE WARMER ON
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.  THEN A LITTLE COLDER TOWARDS DAY 6 AND
7 AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS INDICATE VERY COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THEN
MIXED OVER THE NORTH AND ALL RAIN SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AFTER THAT MODELS INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW.  SOME MODELS
AND HPC INDICATE PRECIP MAY END MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 232100Z IND TAFS/...

ONGOING TAFS APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE AS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS . BASED UPON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS HAVE ADDED VCSH MENTION AS PRECIP APPEAR TO BE INVADING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH NOT ALL PRECIP APPEARS TO BE
REACHING THE GROUND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 231500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 531 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VARIABLE FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...RETURNING TO
MVFR/IFR AFTER 00Z.

DRY SLOT FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS WORKING INTO THE AREA AND
SCOURING OUT SOME OF THE LOWER CLOUDS QUICKLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ILLINOIS. SOME OF THIS WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...WITH EASTERN SITES SEEING SLOWER IMPROVEMENT.

BY 16-18Z EXPECT WESTERN SITES TO BE VFR WITH MVFR EXPECTED AT
EASTERN SITES. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST WITH CEILINGS AT EASTERN
SITES SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR EAST THE SCOURING WILL GET.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGEST SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN SITES AS EARLY
AS 19Z...BUT MAIN PUSH OF RAIN WILL NOT REACH SITES UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
WHEN THIS ARRIVES...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE.

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AROUND 00-03Z AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...JH/JP

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