Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 020213
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE MINIMUL AT ISSUANCE TIME AS
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK


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