Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 040811
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
408 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LABOR DAY AS A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IS IN PLACE. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ATMOSPHERE THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY
WARM AND ALSO HUMID. MOS NUMBERS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SO USED
A BLEND WHICH YIELDS FOR ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 COMBINED WITH
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE MID 90S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
INDY WILL LIKELY HIT THE 90 DEGREE BENCHMARK ONCE AGAIN...MAKING
THIS THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW TO REACH 90 OR HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE GAME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING ITS PRESENCE OVER THE REGION.
DIURNALLY CHARGED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MOST
AFTERNOONS...AND HAVE HELD ONTO THESE VERY LOW CHANCE POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING TIMEFRAME. ALSO PATCHY FOG WILL
FORM EARLY EACH MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND THE DEW POINTS HIGH. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...TRENDED TOWARD EXPECTED
PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS (UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90) AND LOWS (UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA FLATTENS OUT AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL INDIANA. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. BY THURSDAY CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE HOWEVER THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A COOLER
ONE BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY
HIGHS SHOULD STALL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HIGHS WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FOR KIND ONLY TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS. AT KBMG AND KHUF LOWER
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN YESTERDAY MORNING SO
PUSHED BACK TIMING BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO DROP IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PERSISTENCE THE BEST BET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
THUS...SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE MVFR AND TEMPO IFR FOG AT BMG AND HUF
OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE AT BMG WAS ALREADY APPROACHING ITS DEW
POINT LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL START THEM OFF WITH FOG FROM
ISSUANCE TIME AND THROUGH 13Z. HUF MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
AFTER 06Z. LAF AND IND COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR LIKE LAST NIGHT AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPOTTY VFR CU AROUND TONIGHT.

CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGEST FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU AFTER 15Z. WOULD
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT IND OR LAF AFTER
18Z AS AN UPPER WAVE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO LOW TO PUT IN ANY TAF.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON 6 TO 10 KNOTS AND VERY LIGHT
TO CALM ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK/CP


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