Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 310153
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SITES
MOVING NORTHEAST AND A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SITES AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THINK THIS WILL CAUSE THE
SOUTHERN SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY A BIT AS WELL AS
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD. THINK THIS COULD IMPACT KBMG AFTER 3-5Z
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER DIRECTLY IMPACTING
KBMG NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT MENTION AND THUS WILL INCLUDE
VCTS THERE. THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST COULD GET EAST ENOUGH
TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH POSSIBLY AN EXPLICIT THUNDER
MENTION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 6Z. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS
/AROUND 1500 FT/ STARTING AROUND 3-6Z AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL AROUND THE SAME TIME
BUT STILL MVFR.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

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