Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 230213
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1012 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

High pressure will keep dry weather across central Indiana through
Tuesday. On Wednesday with high pressure off to the east return
flow develops and brings moisture back into the area along with
thunderstorm chances. These will stick around until after a
frontal passage on Thursday/Thursday night. After a couple dry
days another system will approach to end the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Diurnal cu will give way to clear skies around sunset and high
pressure will slide across the state. Should see fairly cool
conditions similar to those early this morning with no changes to
the air mass, and used a bias corrected mos for that for lows in
the mid to upper 50s. Cannot rule out patchy fog near daybreak but
not enough to include.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Dry conditions are expected through the day on Tuesday as high
pressure slides to the east. Return flow starts to set up on
Tuesday night into Wednesday which will bring increasing
temperatures and moisture. Thunderstorm chances will arrive in the
west early Wednesday morning and then spread across the area on
Wednesday as an upper wave moves through the warm sector.
Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday night through Thursday as
a front approaches and then moves through the area. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday with dew points
in the 70s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night Through Monday/...

Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

ECMWF suggests mainly high pressure over the Southeastern United
States will strengthen and maintain it position through the
weekend. The main flow aloft will steer north of Indiana through
the period...streaming through the Great Lakes and into Ontario
and Quebec. This pattern should keep any systems or forcing well
north of the Hoosier State. Due to a lack of Dynamics and the High
pressure in place at the surface...would have liked to gone with a
dry forecast...however High dew points and diurnal heating is
resulting in superblend to include at least some low pops. To
account for this...kept some low pops through much of the
period...but tried to contain it mainly the afternoon hours.
Confidence for precip is low.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 230300z IND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1012 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

NO changes needed to the TAF.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 645 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Could see some more MVFR and IFR fog at the smaller airports 06z-12z
as winds become very light southeast or calm. Otherwise, VFR
confidence is high in VFR conditions with cu development progs and
BUFKIT suggest more scattered VFR bases after 16z Tuesday.

Winds will become south on the back end of surface high pressure,
6 to 8 knots after 16z Tuesday.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



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