Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280153
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR
AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A DRY THURSDAY
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WORKED SOUTH OF I-70 NOW...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL FIRING ALONG IT OVER EXTREME EASTERN INDIANA INTO
OHIO. IT WAS OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OTHER THAN A
FEW SMALL SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE INDY METRO. TEMPS
LARGELY REMAINED IN THE 70S AS OF 0130Z.

HAVE HELD ONTO A 20 POP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH ABOUT 03-04Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY STRAGGLERS THAT
DEVELOP AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. EXPECT
HOWEVER THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL EXPAND SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. SKIES HAVE ALREADY GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST
COUNTIES...AND EXPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70 WILL BE MAINLY
CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FURTHER SOUTH...HOLDING
ONTO MORE CLOUDS AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. EVEN
HERE THOUGH EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG
POTENTIAL A BIT BETTER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DRIER AIR BUILDING IN HOWEVER
SHOULD KEEP FOG LOCALIZED.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR A DAY. AFTER THAT
THOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
THROUGH THAT WILL KEEP A WET FORECAST IN THE OFFING. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS
PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING A
BIT FASTER THIS SET OF RUNS...AND KEPT LIKELIES ON SATURDAY WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

FOR TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR AND GENERALLY USED A
CONSENSUS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 28/0000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 602 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SCATTERED LINE OF -TSRW BETWEEN KIND AND
KLAF MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS RIGHT ALONG
THIS LINE OF ACTIVITY AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THRU 06Z.

ALL STATIONS ARE AT VFR THIS HOUR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER SUNSET AND AM EXPECTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KBMG
AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AFTER MID-MORNING...BUT CONTINUED VFR WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...DWM

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