000
FXUS63 KIND 060435
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1133 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE TIME
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE THAN HAS
BEEN SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

UPDATE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED AND WILL DROP
MENTION OF IT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  SATELLITE AND WEATHER
DEPICTION INDICATES ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS
OUR NORTH...HOWEVER MODELS STILL KEEP MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS THE
NORTH. WILL BACK OFF ON CLOUDS SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL EXPECT MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO DROP TEMPERATURE A DEGREE
OR TWO SOME AREAS BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAMS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK ISENTROPIC AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
CONTINUE IN THOSE AREAS. RADAR SHOWS SOME RECENT ENHANCEMENT IN
ECHOES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS WELL.

THE PROBLEM...AS HAS BEEN SO FAR TODAY...IS DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST
LAYERS. LIGHT SNOW HAS FINALLY BEEN REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS
LOGANSPORT RECENTLY. FORCING WILL WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
THOUGH. GIVEN THIS PLUS DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE DO NOT EXPECT SNOW TO
MAKE IT TOO FAR SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS
MAINLY NORTH OF A CRAWFORDSVILLE TO MUNCIE LINE THROUGH 00Z. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD...FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS
FOCUS BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN USA. FEEL THAT BY 00Z FORCING WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR ONLY
FLURRIES TO BE MENTIONED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR A FEW HOURS. DRY
ELSEWHERE.

CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THOUGH...ESPECIALLY NORTH TONIGHT. THESE
PLUS NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER
MET MOS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES...THEN ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR AREA AS WELL. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

MARCH SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE SUBSIDENCE MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD
ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO THE WARMER OF THE MOS
NUMBERS. /TEMPERATURES TODAY WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUNSHINE HAVE
ALREADY EXCEEDED THE WARMER OF YESTERDAY/S MOS NUMBERS/. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES USED A MODEL BLEND.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY...BUT MOST MODELS SHOW THAT BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THUS WENT HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
HIGHS. IF FRONT IS SLOWER TEMPERATURES COULD BE INTO THE 50S AS SEEN
ON THE NAM...OR ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S AS SEEN ON THE FASTER GFS.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ALSO KEPT PRECIPITATION TYPE AS JUST
RAIN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IF COLDER AIR ARRIVES A BIT FASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 153 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD CENTRAL INDIANA WILL STILL
HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
EXITS THE REGION. THEN ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. RATHER PROGRESSIVE
AND ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING RETURNING TO THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 060600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

CEILINGS ABOVE 050...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH 061800Z. SURFACE WINDS 12-14 KTS FROM 060-080 EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND ON THROUGH MIDDAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JH
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS

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