Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KIND 251839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
239 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

High pressure over the great lakes this morning will move on to
the east.  A low pressure system will bring showers and perhaps
a few thunderstorms to central Indiana mainly late Wednesday into
early Thursday.  Another system could bring more rain Friday night.
Otherwise dry and seasonable mild conditions will be the rule.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 938 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Looking outside and on webcams across the area, the mid and high
clouds appear pretty thick across the northern forecast area. Thus
upped sky cover to mostly cloudy there this morning. Thicker clouds
should move out of much of the area this afternoon, leaving behind
partly cloudy skies.

Adjusted hourly temperatures to take into account the thicker cloud
cover. Otherwise remainder of the forecast looks good and made no

Previous discussion follows...

High pressure was across the great lakes this morning and
satellite showed clear skies from Indiana and eastward. High
clouds were pushing into western Illinois and model soundings
indicate lots of high clouds with scattered middle clouds will
spread east over northern sections later today...while mostly
thin high clouds will be the rule in the south.  High temperatures
will range from the middle 50s northeast to the middle 60s
southwest which is close to a MOS blend.

Models try and generate rain across the area late tonight with a
warm front in the vicinity. However, feel that while some lift may
occur, the atmosphere will still be pretty dry. Will cut back
SuperBlend`s PoPs.  Could see a few sprinkles Carroll county...
while other areas will remain dry overnight.

Tweaked tempertures up a degree a few areas with clouds and warm
advection...otherwise stayed close to Super blend tempertures
with lows in the lower to middle 40s tonight.


.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Thursday Night/
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Models are in general agreement and will use blend. An area of
low pressure will move to eastern Iowa midday Wednesday...
across northern Indiana Wednesday night and into the eastern
great lakes Thursday. A warm front will push north across Indiana
Wednesday and a trailing cold front will move east across our region
Wednesday night.  Expect showers to spread across our region late
Wednesday...continue Wednesday night and end over most of central
Indiana early Thursday. There will be enough instability for a few
thunderstorms with the system Wednesday afternoon and night.

A few showers may linger into early Thursday...but the rest of
Thursday and Thursday night will be dry as high pressure behind
the cold front builds into the Ohio valley late Thursday and
Thursday night.

Went closer to warmer MET temperatures Wednesday with good warm
advection...some sun early and showers not arriving until late in
the day.  Otherwise...stayed close to a MOS blend on temperatures
most other periods.


.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Recent model runs have shifted any impacts from waves aloft
traversing over top of the expanding upper ridge north into the
Great Lakes through most of the period. Result will be warm...
windy and dry conditions for much of the extended as we leave
October behind and welcome in November.

Have removed all pops Friday night and early Saturday with the
northward shift to the track of the low and subsequent precip area.
A front will pass through the region early Sunday dry with
limited moisture present which will lead to a subtle cooldown
before warmth returns early next week. A stronger area of low
pressure will track into the western Great Lakes by Tuesday with
a cold front sagging into the region with perhaps a few showers
right at the end of the forecast period.

As stated...southerly flow will maintain warmer than
normal temperatures throughout much of the period...with the
passage of the front Sunday morning bringing a brief cooldown to
end the weekend. Highs should rise well into the 70s Saturday...
slip back into the 60s Sunday then warm slowly back into the 70s
early next week.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 251800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

Mid and high level clouds continue to drift across northern
portions of central Indiana early this afternoon with more
sunshine further south. Expect the mid and high clouds to remain
across the region into the evening...then likely thicken and
lower overnight with a mid level deck around 10kft becoming the
predominant ceiling as a warm front lifts across the forecast

Ceilings are likely to lift back briefly to mainly high based at
20-25kft Wednesday morning as the warm front moves north of the
terminals...with more extensive cloud clover returning by late
afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. Could see a
few showers approaching KHUF and KLAF by late afternoon with
greater precip impacts coming Wednesday night. Light easterly flow
through this evening will transition to southeast on Wednesday.





AVIATION...RYAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.