Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 261920
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
320 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Several weather systems will affect Indiana now through the
weekend with periods of thunderstorms and heavy rain that may
produce flooding. Rain amounts will range from 2 to 4 inches
from Friday into Monday.

After a mild night tonight...temperatures below normal will
prevail for the most part, but another warm-up to near 80 will
take place Sunday before another cool down to near normal for
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 319 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Showers and thunderstorms have been progressing steadily northeast
ahead of the surface trough across the mid Mississippi valley and
will continue that movement across the NW half of our forecast
area this evening. During the overnight as the air stabilizes
thunderstorms will become more isolated while showers continue
ahead of the front. All models have produced similar guidance in
these trends and will be followed. Rainfall amounts from a quarter
to half inch, especially across western counties should cause no
flooding issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...

Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Models have been in fairly good agreement with a blended solution
working fairly well.

The first weather systems cold front will sweep across Indiana
early Thursday bringing and end to the showers with a cloudy and
breezy morning. A gradual clearing and settling of winds will take
place Thursday afternoon as ridging between weather systems
occurs. A calm night follows Thursday night.

Friday, the next system begins developing across the southern
Plains while high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes.
A weak short wave in southwest flow aloft begins to overspread
clouds and some showers into our area Friday. More substantial
convergence along a surface boundary across our southern counties
Friday night will yield a couple surges of heavy rainfall
...initially Friday night across the south that spreads north
Saturday as the boundary shifts north.

Rainfall totals Friday and Saturday will average above one inch
across most of the area...raising stream levels and likely
setting the stage for flooding when the final surge of rain and
storms comes Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Wednesday)...

Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Confidence is high there for a lot of wet cool weather.

Factors affecting Indiana weather are going to be complex next week.
However, there is good agreement between different forecasting
methods. Highest rain chances will be through Monday but no really
dry period is on tap. Expect temperatures to be a few degrees
above seasonal into Sunday night, but to 10 degrees below normal
afterward.

The initialization from Central Region will be used. Likely
errors are 3 degrees or less for temperatures, and 10 percent or
less for POPs.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 261700z TAFs/...

Issued at 124 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Synopsis...strong low pressure trough and cold front from
Wisconsin to Oklahoma today will sweep into Indiana after
midnight tonight and across the state early daybreak hours
Thursday.

VFR to prevail through 271000z then behind cold front IFR decks
around 1000 feet through 271800z.

Isolated thunderstorms will develop 262200z-2400z and be a threat
for 2-3 hours. Afterwards, steadier showers and isolated
thunderstorms arrive ahead of cold front after 270600z, departing
after 271200z.

Winds from the south will be strong and gusty through early
evening today. As winds settle down after dark wind shear to
become an issue with winds aloft to 45 knots.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Tucek
NEAR TERM...Tucek
SHORT TERM...Tucek
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...Tucek


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