Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 292027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ON
TUESDAY...BUT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH THE BELOW
NORMAL TREND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE CLEAR
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN USA A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AND THIS
SHOULD WORK INTO FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE
TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A LOT OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...MOISTURE IS
SHALLOW. ALSO...MOST FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO
THE UPPER SYSTEM. THUS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ALL AREAS
TONIGHT.

WITH CLOUDS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR
TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOCUS IS ANY CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AS NOTED
IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WITH IT. HOWEVER
THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN OUT AS FRONT BECOMES SLOWS DOWN AND
BECOMES STRETCHED /AS MAIN PUSH WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA/.

MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND FORCING WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...SO KEPT
FORECAST DRY TUESDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST /MUNCIE-WINCHESTER AREAS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
FORCING/ DURING THE MORNING THOUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUD BAND THINS
OUT AND WHERE IT SETS UP UNTIL IT DOES. FEEL THAT MET MOS IS TOO
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS AND THUS TOO COLD ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER
MAV IS THE OPPOSITE...BUT IS CLOSER TO THE TRUTH. CUT MAV BY A FEW
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

FRONT RETURNS NORTH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE IS DIMINISHED.
STUCK WITH MAV MOS FOR LOWS.

ON WEDNESDAY WARM ADVECTION RETURNS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME. HOWEVER EVEN WITH SUNSHINE MAV LOOKS
A BIT WARM SO TRIMMED IT MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN SLOWED ARRIVAL OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWED SUIT...BUT GIVEN TRACK RECORD OF THE MODELS DID NOT REMOVE
POPS COMPLETELY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE
FAR WEST.

MOISTURE AND FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT...BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS WEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

LONG ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED...AS THE
RECENT WARM DRY STRETCH GIVES WAY TO A MUCH COOLER AUTUMN WEATHER
REGIME.

OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS GONE BACK TO A SLOWER ARRIVAL AND
PASSAGE TO THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THE COOLER
WEATHER...NOW HOLDING OFF ON BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND CONVECTION STILL
SLATED TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY NIGHT AS A 40KT 850MB JET
ADVECTS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FEEL COMFORTABLE IN MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL CARRY ONLY
CHANCE THUNDER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SWEEPS OFF TO THE EAST.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C. WITH
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT CU FIELD IN THE COLD ADVECTION LIMITING SURFACE
HEATING...HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE 50S OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING. WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION HOWEVER SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN. THE WAVE ON SUNDAY MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. LEFT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW ON MONDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS FROM ADDITIONAL ENERGY ALOFT PASSING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS WILL REBOUND SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT LARGELY STAY IN
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 292100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WITH EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER NIGHT WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW CU AT KBMG
THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE...REMOVED ALL CLOUD MENTION THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. LIGHT W/NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A BAND OF VFR
STRATOCU ACROSS THE TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. MAY SEE
BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AHEAD OF THE CLOUD BAND AT OUTLYING
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10KTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/MK

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