Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

533
FXUS63 KIND 130900
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE COLD DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY TOMORROW THOUGH AS A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
UPPER FLOW AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FIRST WILL ENTER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE ON MONDAY. TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THESE DISTURBANCES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AFTER THAT WITH
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...BUT
SOME RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
KEEP TOTALS LOWER OVER THOSE COUNTIES. FURTHER OUT...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 323 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND RIDGING TO THE
WEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S. THESE
NUMBERS COMBINED WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THROUGHOUT THE DAY OF -5 TO -15 DEGREES.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS IS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DECENT FETCH OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH AND
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SAT 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FARTHER INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 323 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE FIRST OF TWO
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

FIRST...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND AMPLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY COLD ONCE
AGAIN WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THOUGH BY TONIGHT...SO WIND CHILLS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. PLUS...CLOUDS WILL
START INCREASING LATE IN THE NIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE A TAD WARMER /LOW
TEENS/ OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS A RESULT OF THIS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENTERING THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BETWEEN SUN 09-12Z AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE DURING THE SUN 18Z-MON 00Z TIME FRAME...WHICH IS
WHEN HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL. DRY AIR QUICKLY
INFILTRATES THE AREA AFTER MON 03Z THOUGH...SO TAPERED POPS TO
JUST CHANCE AFTER MON 06Z.

AFTER A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON MONDAY...A SECOND WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
EXPANSION OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A THAW FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A TRAILING CLIPPER TO SWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
SYSTEM. DISCREPANCIES REMAIN IN STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCING A STRONGER
AND FURTHER NORTH TRACK TO THE WAVE. RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGESTIVE
THAT WARMTH IS BEING OVERDONE...AND THIS IS LIKELY NOT EVEN TAKING
INTO CONSIDERATION THE POTENTIAL IMPACT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WOULD HAVE. HAVE GONE COOLER
THAN SUPERBLEND AS A RESULT AND LIMITED ANY MIXING WITH RAIN ON
TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOME AREAS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO A PROGRESSIVELY WARMER REGIME AS BROAD
RIDGING ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WIND AND CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 50S OVER ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY
FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY MAKE A RUN AT 60 DEGREES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 130900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MOISTURE FLOWING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUD
COVER BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE KLAF/KIND VICINITY.

SURFACE WINDS 300-330 DEGREES AT 10-15 KTS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT DIMINISHING TREND AFTER SUNRISE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL SURFACE GUSTS 18-20 KTS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.