Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 241854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
254 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.


Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Above normal to well above normal temperatures will continue into
mid-week, then much cooler conditions will arrive for late week into
the weekend. The cold front bringing the cold air will also bring a
low chance for rain on Wednesday.


.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Confidence is high that quiet weather will continue into tonight
with high pressure in control at the surface and an upper ridge
aloft. The cumulus that managed to form this afternoon will
dissipate, but some high clouds might sneak in from the south later
tonight. Thus mostly clear should cover it.

The model blend looks reasonable for low temperatures.


.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

High pressure will continue to keep the weather quiet through much
of the short term. There will be a weak return flow of moisture into
the area Monday, so there should be more cumulus than today.
However, mostly sunny should still cover it for most locations.

There will be a little more clouds on Tuesday as the cold front
begins its approach to the area.

The front will move through early Wednesday, but the colder air will
lag behind the front. The arrival of the colder air could spark an
isolated shower Wednesday afternoon, but even that chance is
uncertain thanks to a lack of deep moisture and weak convergence
and forcing.

Went above the blend for Monday`s highs given what`s happened the
past few days. The blend looks reasonable for highs Tuesday with
more clouds around and for Wednesday with the colder air moving in
later in the day.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Confidence remains high in the long advertised cooldown arriving
right at the beginning of the extended as the cold front that
tracks across central Indiana on Wednesday moves away. The blocky
pattern aloft over the last week will finally breakdown with a
progressively deeper upper trough becoming the prevalent feature
over the region through the entire period. Long range guidance does
differ with respect to the eventual strength of the upper
trough...but the overall pattern will support an abrupt transition
to much cooler temperatures and predominant N/NE flow. Expect highs
only in the 60s for many locations by next weekend with lows into
the 40s.

Potential exists for a few showers with a secondary cold front
dropping through the area on Friday...but moisture remains paltry
at best. Keeping the forecast dry at this time with low confidence
in any rainfall.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 241800Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Outside of brief MVFR conditions in fog near sunrise at
all but KIND, VFR conditions expected.

High pressure and a dry atmosphere will keep skies clear for the TAF
period, with perhaps some cumulus developing Monday afternoon. Winds
will remain less than 10kt.

As with the past several nights, expect some brief restrictions in
fog at all but KIND near 12Z.





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