Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221338
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING PORTION OF THE
DAY APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INDY TEMPS TO SEE IF
WE MIGHT NOT SQUEEK OUT A MAX TEMP ABOVE 87F WE CURRENTLY PROJECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

BASED ON SIMILAR CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...EXPECT BULK OF FOG TO BE
GONE BY 12Z. KEPT SOME MVFR FOR AN HOUR AT KLAF/KBMG.

OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT KLAF FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 04Z AND LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50

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