000
FXUS63 KIND 171640
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1240 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER
LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM ARKANSAS HAS DEVELOPED SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA THATS MOVING NORTH TOWARD OUR
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. ALL MODELS IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
LIFTING THE UPPER LOW INTO INDIANA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE IT ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM EXITS WHILE LARGE
TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING WARMER AIR FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF STORMY WEATHER MONDAY INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 933 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST...JUST SOUTH
OF THE LAFAYETTE AND MUNCIE AREAS. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER 60S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR
CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. RAPID REFRESH INDICATES THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
TRENDED POPS TOWARD 0 FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS RADAR TRENDS SHOW
NOTHING FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS AGAIN HAVE A
GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE UPPER
LOW OVER ARKANSAS LIFTS INTO INDIANA. THIS DIFFERENCE ALSO TIES TO
HOW FAR NORTH LIKELY RAIN AREAS WILL BE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL
USE A BLEND OF MODELS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY ON THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS UPPER LOW REACHES ITS FARTHEST PUSH NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST AND RIDGING DEVELOPS IN
ITS WAKE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH OR END IN WESTERN INDIANA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. EASTERN COUNTIES THREAT FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE REGARDING RAIN. MODELS INCREASINGLY FAVOR DRY WEATHER
AS UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST BUT WET GROUND AND WARMER TEMPS
WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE SUNDAY COULD STILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS. ANOTHER MODEL RUN WITH SAME TREND COULD ALLOW REMOVAL OF
RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...ONGOING FORECAST NUMBERS WERE PRETTY GOOD WITH
MINS IN 62 TO 65 RANGE INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAXS SATURDAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO 80...WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A TAD MORE SUN THEN IN THE
80S SUNDAY AS EVEN MORE SUNSHINE AND RISING THICKNESSES.
INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
SUNDAY NIGHT MINS IN MID OR EVEN UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS APPEAR SET TO CONTINUE INTO THE COMING WEEK.
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THEN VERY SLOWLY MAKE PROGRESS TO THE EAST DURING THE
WEEK. CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BUT BOUNDARIES WILL AT TIMES BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE
AREA AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AT BEST. THUS...WHILE HAVE
MAINTAINED POPS IN ALL PERIODS BUT THE VERY END WHEN A SURFACE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE AREA...HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS
SLIGHTLY MOST PERIODS...AS LACK OF SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WHEN IT APPEARS A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

TEMPS FROM INITIALIZATION APPEARED REASONABLE THROUGHOUT WITH ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS. WARMTH SHOULD PEAK EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL
COOLDOWN IN THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 171800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING SOON AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOUT REACHED. INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY RUNS
THROUGH SOUTHWEST INDIANA...SO ANY INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WOULD
PROBABLY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF KHUF/KBMG AND THEN PROGRESS NORTH
WITH TIME GIVEN THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE MAY SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH MAY SERVE TO PROLONG THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
A LITTLE LONGER THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED IN A STRICTLY
DIURNAL SITUATION. IN ANY EVENT...AT THIS TIME CAN/T REALLY PIN DOWN
ANYTHING DEFINITIVE...SO WILL KEEP A VCTS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
180200Z. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER CELLS. CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES AROUND 030.

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...CEILINGS ABOVE 050 WITH NO WIND
ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH 180600Z. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG
MAY DEVELOP AFTER 180500Z...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

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