Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 201431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COOL FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL
KANSAS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA. HIGHER
DEW POINTS HAVE ARRIVED IN THE AREA...REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. RADAR SHOWS LIMITED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING NEAR 00Z.
ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
HE AFTERNOON WITH CHCS FOR POPS ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE FAILURE OF
YESTERDAY/S PERSISTENCE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 201500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LAYERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP...SO ADDED SOME CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL TO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE THREAT AT KIND STARTING AT 202200Z LOOKS TOO
EARLY BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAVE FOR
NOW AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BRIEF AND SPOTTY MVFR FOG UNTIL 201300Z MAY NOT EFFECT ALL TAF
SITES. LATE MORNING WINDS PICK UP ABOVE 10 KNOTS AND BEGIN GUSTING
ABOVE 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EARLY MORNING STORMS FROM IOWA TO WISCONSIN APPEAR WELL HANDLED BY
MODELS AND LOOK FOR ARRIVAL TO KLAF BY 202100Z AND KIND BY 202200Z
THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. AFTER INITIAL HOUR-TWO HOUR ROUND OF
THUNDER... SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFTERWORD. CLOUD DECKS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN
STRONGER STORMS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

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