Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 201952
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...THEN MFVR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER A STRONGER THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA...SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OR NEAR SOME OF THE
SITES...HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THESE WILL IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORY AND THUS WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH WITH THEM. TONIGHT TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES STARTING AFTER AROUND 6Z AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WAS
INDICATED IN MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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