Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 250719
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
219 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

RADAR LOOPS INDICATE AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN 2/3 OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. AFTERWORDS EXPECT NO MORE THAN AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FLURRIES. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AND
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE HARDLY
ANY COLDER THAN ACROSS OUR REGION.  OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

MODEL DATA INDICATE PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING
THIS PERIOD. TODAY/S SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY LIFTING OFF INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY LATER THIS WEEK.

EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODELS
SUGGEST LOW CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS. OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN HOLDING OFF THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT UNTIL SATURDAY...BUT THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THIS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THICKNESSES SUGGEST
A RAIN EVENT AT THIS TIME.

WILL NUDGE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY DOWN A CATEGORY DUE TO
EXPECTED LINGERING LOW CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE THE GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 219 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. IT BECOMES
MODERATE WEDNESDAY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE EUROPEAN...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ALL
HAVE THE REGIONS WEATHER CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THEY ALSO
FORECAST FAIRLY SIMILAR 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES. WITH THEM ALL
PREDICTING ABOUT THE SAME THING...PROBABLY THAT IS WHAT WILL
HAPPEN.

WEDNESDAY LARGER DIFFERENCES ARISE. THE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT SO
EXTREME AS TO MAKE A TOTAL DIFFERENCE IN THE WEATHER INDIANA GETS.
STILL...THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IS GREATER THAN EARLIER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

CONDITIONS AT LEAST MVFR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE IFR BORDERLINE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...AND MAY BRIEFLY BECOME IFR AT TIMES...BUT THIS IS APPEARING
LOWER PROBABILITY THAN PREVIOUSLY...AND WILL REMOVE TEMPO GROUP.

WHILE MOS SUGGESTS A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW...THIS IS OFTEN TOO QUICK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MOISTURE BENEATH A WEAKENING
BUT STILL PRESENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS
WILL KEEP CEILINGS MVFR THROUGH SUNSET CHRISTMAS DAY. NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT THAT LOW CEILINGS MAY NOT REOCCUR OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL MOVE THINGS TO VFR FOR NOW AS THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE SUGGESTS AS SUCH.

WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN SPORADIC AT BEST AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE THREAT IS DIMINISHING. THUS...WILL GO WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF
10-15KT OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY BACKING AND DIMINISHING BY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.