Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 170806
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
307 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Long Term and AVIATION Section have updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

A southwestern system will lift northeast across central Indiana on
Sunday. This system combined with a moist atmosphere will result in
widespread rain showers on Sunday. Also, a frontal system will bring
another threat of showers to the area late next week. Otherwise,
zonal flow aloft will result in mostly dry weather with above normal
temperatures. Most areas will even see 50s on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...Puma
Issued at 312 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

Good confidence in another dry night tonight as central Indiana will
be in between high pressure over the eastern states and an
approaching southwestern system. Southerly winds should keep
temperatures above freezing over most locales overnight per the
blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 312 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

The main focus for the short term will be on the weather Sunday as a
southwestern system lifts northeast over the area.

Models are in good agreement that an upper southwest system will
lift northeast across central Indiana Sunday afternoon. MOdel rh
time sections were showing deep moisture overspreading from
southwest to northeast Sunday. Model time sections were also showing
strong lift associated with the system. So, likely pops from
Forecast Builder look good on Sunday. Would not rule out a brief
rain and snow mix at the start as the initially dry low levels will
support evaporative cooling of any rain drops.

Will not rule out a few rain showers north on MOnday as a Great
Lakes trough shears out in zonal flow aloft. Otherwise, look for dry
weather with continued above normal temperatures per the blend. Low
level thicknesses and plenty of sunshine support well above normal
highs, mostly in the 50s on Tuesday. Normal highs for this time of
year are in the upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Extended models indicate a somewhat zonal upper flow Wednesday and
Thursday will become more amplified towards the weekend as a strong
upper trough digs first into the upper midwest and then the great
lakes. Quiet and mild weather will occur Wednesday and Thursday as
an area of low pressure track`s east across the deep south. It now
appears that any precipitation from this will will remain to our
south.

Models indicate an area of low pressure over the central plains
Thursday will track across the upper midwest Friday and into the
great lakes and a trailing cold front will move east across Indiana
Friday night.  Models indicate rain will be possible by Friday
changing to light snow Friday night and then ending.  This seems
reasonable given the above pattern.

Superblend temperatures are least 5 degrees too cool Thursday night
and will raise them to better match MOS and HPC values.  This change
will keep precipitation all liquid Friday morning.  Otherwise...only
minor tweaks made to superblend temperatures in other periods.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 17/09Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 307 Am EST Sun Dec 17 2017

Minor tweaks made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions.
No other changes are needed at this time.  Previous aviation
discussion follows...

VFR conditions will prevail through Sun 22Z. However, a short
wave will bring rain/snow chances around then, and ceilings will
deteriorate to MVFR levels through the end of the TAF period.
There is also the possibility for IFR or worse fog formation
tomorrow night, but this is a low confidence forecast. Meanwhile,
winds will generally be south/southwesterly at 4 to 10 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TDUD/JH



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