Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250801
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
401 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WEAK RIDGING FORMS ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST THROUGH LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SITES WILL START OFF VFR BUT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE UPSTREAM CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR AT THIS
POINT...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADD SOME FORCING AND
MOISTURE THAT SHOULD BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR. SHOULD SEE THIS
MOVE INTO KHUF AROUND 8Z...KBMG AROUND 9Z...KIND 10Z AND KLAF 11Z. WILL
KEEP THESE SHOWERS GOING FOR 4-6 HOURS AND THEN KEEP THE MVFR DECK
WITH VC FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BRINGING CLOUD DECKS UP TO VFR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS 17-19Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE SITES ALONG WITH THE EXPLICIT
SHOWER MENTION...BUT UNABLE TO PICK PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC
THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

FOR WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKING UP. THIS COULD ALSO BRING SOME WIND GUSTS
BACK INTO THE TAF SITES AFTER AROUND 9Z...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS
STILL PRETTY LOW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL PICK BACK
UP LATER THIS MORNING AND EXPECT GUSTS 25-30 KTS STARTING MID
MORNING AND STAYING THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND OBS UPSTREAM TODAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

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