Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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577
FXUS63 KIND 220752
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
350 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Long Term Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

After a dry start to the week, rain and storms will return to
central Indiana as a frontal system moves through mid week.
Temperatures will run near normal until then, but drop below
normal mid week before climbing back above normal for the holiday
weekend. Chances for showers and storms appear possible at times
for the holiday weekend as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

High pressure will build over the area today keeping the weather dry.
Some mid and high clouds will advect in from the southwest and
serve to filter the sunshine through the day. The initially cold
advection will become neutral and then warm during the course of
the day, but the filtering from the high clouds will keep high
temperatures in the low to mid 70s late in the afternoon as flow
turns more southerly.
 &&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...

Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

High pressure will move off to the east of the area tonight, but
the next approaching low and forcing will remain to the west. By
Tuesday afternoon an upper wave starts to get closer and will
bring in chances for showers into the western counties in the
morning, and then add in a slight chance for storms in the
afternoon as well with a bit of instability making its way into
the area. Tuesday night instability will wane but forcing will
increase through the night and should see increasing chances for
rain as a result. The best forcing and available moisture will be
over the area through the day on Wednesday, and rain looks likely
throughout the day. Instability will increase such that by late
morning isolated storms will be possible embedded within the
showers, and scattered storms will be possible during the
afternoon. With all the clouds and showers around, highs will stay
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Cool but with a decreasing chance of showers will occur Thursday as
the strong closed upper low over the eastern U.S. moves on to the
east.  An area of high pressure and a weak upper ridge will move
east across Indiana by Friday resulting in a short period of . dry
weather.  Then more active weather by the weekend as an area of low
pressure moves towards the southern Great lakes and an upper trough
over central Canada digs into the upper midwest and western great
lakes by Sunday.

Temperatures will warm up to slightly above seasonable normals by
Friday and remain warm through the weekend.  Will mention a chance
of showers and a few thunderstorms Friday night through the weekend.
Some models indicate the best chance of showers and storms will
occur around Saturday.

Stayed close to Super Blend temperatures most periods.  Raised POPS
a little some areas Saturday night as new Euro and Canadian models
look quite wet then.  Otherwise...only minor changes made to POPS in
other periods.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 220600Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR through the period. Lingering VFR ceilings 045-050 expected to
scatter out at the terminals by or shortly after issuance time as an
850mb cold pool rotates east through the Great Lakes.

Surface winds 260-290 degrees around 5-8 kts expected through late
morning on Monday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JAS/CP



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