Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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221
FXUS63 KIND 201638
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1138 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

It will be mild with periodic shower chances through the middle of
next week. Then, more seasonable weather will return to the Ohio
valley late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 957 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Low pressure now over northeast Indiana and continuing to move
away to the northeast of the region. Still a few light showers
over far northern counties with pockets of drizzle elsewhere. Yet
another cloudy...gray day with 15Z temps ranging generally from
the mid 40s to mid 50s north to south.

Gray day with areas of fog as moisture remains trapped in a
shallow near surface layer. Little mixing of the lower levels is
anticipated as weak ridging aloft develops over the Ohio Valley
this afternoon. Soundings support a continuation of drizzle
through at least midday as drier air advects in over the boundary
layer. Lowered afternoon highs a degree or two based on current
obs but still expecting a mild day with 50s for most.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/...
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Precipitation chances and temperatures will continue to be the main
short term issues.

Models are handling the main synoptic features rather well this
weekend, so model blend is preferred. Yet another southwestern upper
system will rotate northeast tonight. However, this one will be a
bit further to the west than the previous ones and not have as much
moisture to work with. Thus, went with a slight chance of showers
tonight near and north of a Terre Haute to Evansville line. The
clouds will hang around tonight under an inversion per model rh time
sections and soundings. With thick clouds and mild low level thermal
progs, will go warmer than MOS blend with overnight temperatures
only dropping to the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Yet another southwestern upper low will move to the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandles late Saturday. An impulse or two will eject
northeast ahead of this feature across the Ohio Valley Saturday
afternoon and night. This could result in scattered showers and
possibly even a thunderstorm or two over south central Indiana.

Finally, this upper low will move east across the southern states
Sunday and Sunday night. Moisture and warmer temperatures will be
drawn north ahead of the low and bring more shower chances to the
area through the weekend along with afternoon highs in the upper 50s
and mid 60s on Saturday. Sunday will not be much cooler than
Saturday. Normal highs for this time of year are only in the mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 327 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

The extended period will start out with some rain showers on
Monday as an upper low continues its track from the Southeast U.S.
northward along the east coast. The showers will quickly end late
Monday evening though as that low pushes farther east. After a dry
period from Monday night through Tuesday, the next low pressure
system will bring another round of rain starting Tuesday
afternoon. Rain will be the predominant precipitation type through
Wednesday, but as colder air filters in behind the associated
upper low, there will be a transition to a wintry mix on Wednesday
night. Additional waves aloft will keep low precipitation chances
in the forecast mainly across the northern counties through
Thursday night, did not deviate from latest Superblend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 201800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1138 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Poor flying conditions will continue for the rest of the day into
tonight with some improvements for Saturday.

Areas of fog and pockets of drizzle continue to impact the
terminals late this morning as moisture remains trapped beneath a
strong inversion. As progressively drier air advects into the
region...should see the drizzle diminish early this afternoon but
the lower ceilings will continue under the inversion. Expect
ceilings generally persisting at a sub-IFR level into the
overnight with visibilities likely holding in the 3 to 5SM range.
Light SW flow this afternoon will back to southerly and increase
tonight as a warm front lifts north.

The passage of the frontal boundary will enable a relaxing of the
inversion to some degree on Saturday and increased low level
mixing will enable improvements in ceilings into the MVFR category
through the course of the day. S/SW winds will continue with the
potential for gusts in some areas during the afternoon. It now
appears that rain and scattered convection now is likely to hold
off on causing more significant impacts at the terminals until
after 00Z Saturday evening.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.S/

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN



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