Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010613
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. COOL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
ONLY REACH THE 60S.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHTS AND PARTLY SUNNY DAYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE ON THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES IN
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS BROAD STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WAS FOUND OVER ARKANSAS. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS...ALONG
WITH MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE LOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...STREAMING ACROSS ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI TO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...WHILE SURFACE OBS SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW WITH TEMPS
IN THE 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS.

GFS AND NAM HAVE CHANGED THEIR PLANS SINCE LAST NIGHT...NOW
KEEPING THE PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY WITH WEAK LIFT. MEANWHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED COLUMN THIS MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRY THINGS OUT
LATE TODAY. RAPID REFRESH PROPAGATES CURRENT PRECIP OVER TENNESSEE
AND KENTUCKY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. THUS WILL AIR FOR HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE
LOCATIONS...KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE IN MOST OTHER SPOTS.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING TODAY AND COOL NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL STEER TOWARDS PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THAT HE UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL
SLOWLY [PROPAGATE EASTWARD TO EASTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS EASTWARD PROPAGATION SHOW ALLOW THE MOISTURE FEED IN
TO THE SYSTEM TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ALSO...AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
INDIANA. AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE PERIOD THE STRONG...COOL HIGH
IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES DEVELOPS A RIDGE SPILLING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...PROVIDING COOL...NORTHEAST
FLOW. THUS WILL TRY AND AIM FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WITH SOME CLOUD EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER LOW...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR ABOVE
MAVMOS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY O LINGER LONGER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS BEGIN A DRYING TREND ON
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INDICATING A DRY COLUMN WITH
UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY BUT REACHABLE
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN...HOWEVER THE PESKY UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE...PERHAPS SPREADING IN SOME CLOUDS.
THUS WILL USE A BLEND ON MAVMOS/METMOS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WELL HANDLED AS A BIT
MORE SUN SHOULD BE AVAILABLE THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THOUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE GFS HAS A LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES UNTIL THEN...THEIR QPF
AND TEMPERATURES FIELD ARE SIMILAR. THESE ARE THE ONES THAT WILL
DRIVE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS GOOD WITH ALL THE IMPORTANT INDICATORS POINTING IN
THE SAME DIRECTION.

THE REGION INITIALIZATION WILL ALSO BE USED SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN IT DROPS TO MODERATE.  THIS IS BECAUSE THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPREAD
WIDENS CONSIDERABLY...ALTHOUGH THAT MODEL IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
EUROPEAN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010606Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z-14Z PER MOS...SREF
CEILING PROBABILITIES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 17Z AND CLEAR AFTER
00Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF MVFR VERSUS IFR OR WORSE IS NOT
GREAT  CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 17Z IS
MUCH BETTER.

NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK/JK

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