Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 160813

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
413 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 205 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2057

Indiana`s weather will be unusually quiet into early next week. High
pressure is forecast to remain stretched from Texas, across the
Hoosier State, to New England.


.NEAR TERM (Today)...

Issued at 205 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2057

There is good model agreement today will be dry as high pressure
moves in. Boundary layer relative humidities and the cumulus rule
support a mostly sunny forecast in the west. The same things suggest
it will be a partly cloudy day in the east where it will take longer
to dissipate lake effect clouds.

With the underlying models similar, the consensus temperature
forecast should be accurate to within 2-3 degrees.


.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night)...

Issued at 205 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2057

There is very good model agreement high pressure will bring mostly
clear skies for the period. Temperatures become the main forecast

Given the similarities in guidance, consensus should mostly be
accurate to within 3 degrees. Tonight is an important exception.

Dry air and light wind will be extremely favorable for radiation
overnight, especially in the south. Both the MAV and MET are
considerably colder than consensus in the south but look reasonable
considering where temperatures should start.  The forecast will be
shifted in their direction. This means there could be frost in
favored locations, although it won`t be widespread.


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...

Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Upper ridging across the central and eastern U.S. will keep dry
weather over central Indiana through most of the long term, along
with slowly increasing temperatures. By Sunday, though, the upper
ridge moves off to the east coast and a frontal system will begin
to approach central Indiana. This will bring chances for rain when
it arrives. There is still a great deal of model variability for
the eastward movement of the ridge and the subsequent arrival of
the frontal system, so low confidence forecast from Saturday night
onward. High confidence in above normal temperatures through the
long term.


.AVIATION (Discussion for 160900Z TAF update)...

Issued at 413 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Only minor changes based on latest observations needed. Previous
discussion follows.

Good confidence that VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period per
latest ob trends and SREF and GFS LAMP, as surface high pressure
builds in from the southwest.

Winds will be northwest less than 10 knots




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