Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280649
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...WITH READINGS RETURN TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 915 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

ADJUSTED POPS TO ONLY SMALL CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST UNTIL AFTER 09Z PER
RADAR TRENDS AND 23Z HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY
PROGS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS IN AN AREA OF LIFT. THIS WILL WORK INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA...PERHAPS IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO COVER FOR
THESE AND WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...MOST RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATER
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING IN GOOD MOISTURE...WHILE
AN UPPER JET ADDS ADDITIONAL FORCING. THIS MEANS RAIN IS A GOOD BET
BY 12Z ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS
FAR WEST AND LIKELY POPS REMAINDER OF WEST. CHANCE EAST.

THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT /AS SHOWALTER INDEX HIGHLIGHTS/
SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT.

A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
MOVING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ON TUESDAY. AS NOTED
ABOVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SO WENT CATEGORICAL POPS MOST AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. WITH
THE SPEED OF THE FRONT QUICKLY DROPPED POPS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WITH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DRY BY 18Z AND THE
REMAINDER BY 21Z.

FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...A MODEL BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD
WITH THE RAIN IN THE MORNING AND PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS WORKING IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD AIR
ALOFT...BUT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES WILL GO OPTIMISTIC AND KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

MAV MOS DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOKS
TOO WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN. WENT CLOSER TO A
MODEL BLEND THEN.

ON THURSDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI. SOME
WEAK LIFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW AND MODELS TRY TO BRING SOME
RAIN INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. AT THE
MOMENT BELIEVE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED AND FORCING TOO WEAK TO
ADD POPS. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON HALLOWEEN WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
SHOCK FOR TRICK OR TREATERS AS A COMPACT UPPER LOW DIVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WITH THE LOW...BUT WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY BY THE EVENING. THIS WILL
BE OF ONLY MODERATE CONSOLATION HOWEVER IN THE FACE OF NORTH WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 30 DEGREES OR
LESS ON FRIDAY EVENING.

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY...AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. A FRONTAL ZONE WILL
IMPINGE UPON THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING A RETURN OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO BEGIN IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AFTER ABOUT 281000Z. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...BUT POTENTIAL OF A DIRECT IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE SHOWER AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE IFR FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH ONLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FROM LATE MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY.

MODELS SUGGEST THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PASS OFF TO THE
EAST AFTER 280800Z OR SO. AS A RESULT...THINK THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THAT TIME.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 200-220 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN AREAS
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET CAN MIX CLOSER TO THE GROUND. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO 270-290 DEGREES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/MK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

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