Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST TODAY. LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARDS MIDDAY AND ON INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. DEGREE OF LIFT AND PROGGED INSTABILITY NOT TOO
EXCESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS ALL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS TODAY LOOK OK FOR THE
MOST PART...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODEL DATA SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING UNTIL THEN.

BY MONDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN JET. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD AMONG THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE DATA AS TO WHERE
THIS CUTOFF WILL OCCUR...ANYWHERE FROM MISSOURI TO THE ARKLATEX
REGION. THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT DRY AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS APPEAR REASONABLE...SO ANY ADJUSTMENTS WILL
BE MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM.  TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS INDICATE
A WARM MOIST AIRMASS MAY PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF ERIKA SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS
FROM 85 TO 90 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE TO A
MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SITES THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER LOOKING
UPSTREAM AND AT DEVELOPMENT FORECAST FROM HI RES MODELS IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE SITES. AT THIS
POINT THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AT KLAF CLOSEST TO THE BEST
FORCING AND MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THERE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
EVENING BUT ELSEWHERE WILL JUST INCLUDE A VCSH WITH PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER JUST TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

NEAR DAYBREAK COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOG AT THE OUTLYING
SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP



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