Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 231653

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1253 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 341 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

High pressure is expected across the area early this week. A
frontal system will move through during the middle of the week.
Another frontal system may effect the area by next weekend.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 951 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Only made some minor tweaks to the forecast at this time. Will watch
temperatures as highs might be a bit too cool, but trends aren`t
apparent enough at this time to make any significant changes.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry conditions expected today as surface high pressure holds over
the Ohio Valley. Layered moisture fields off the models suggests
little significant cloud cover today.

Some surface wind gusts around 25 kts expected near peak heating
this afternoon based on low level wind fields and progged mixing

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs today are probably
too cool. Will raise the guidance highs a category.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Quiet weather expected during this period under dry northwest
upper flow and surface high pressure. A weak cold front is
expected to drop through the area tonight, but a generally dry
air mass suggests this front will be inactive.

Upper flow expected to back some towards the end of this period
as a upper trough moves into the Plains. Although there will
probably be an increase in mid and high level cloud starting
Monday night, it appears the precipitation threat with this trough
will hold off until after this forecast period.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance looks reasonable during this period. Little, if any,
adjustments planned.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Models indicate low pressure will track across the southern great
lakes late Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing a likelihood of
showers and isolated thunderstorms. This will be followed by a
weak area of high pressure which will move across our region late
Thursday and Friday.

Models differ some towards next weekend with the GFS and GEMNH
bringing another system our way late Friday into Saturday...while
the ECMWF is slower and keeping most areas dry until Saturday. Will
split the difference for now and mention slight chance of showers
west and south late Friday night and most areas Saturday.

Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal most periods
as a progressive somewhat zonal upper flow persists.  The one
exception will be Thursday with highs near to slightly cooler than
normal. Stayed close to super blend temperatures most periods.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 231800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period.

Gusty southwest winds will be the primary issue for aviators this
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an
approaching low pressure and associated cold front. Expect peak
gusts up to 25kts through early evening with winds diminishing
with the loss of heating and the passage of the cold front.
Virtually no moisture accompanying the boundary with a wind shift
to northwest being the only impact from the passage of the front.

Winds will veer to northerly Monday morning as high pressure
reestablishes over the region. Other than a few cirrus...expect
mainly clear skies.





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