Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 190612
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
212 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING WITH DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH ANOTHER DUE IN
MONDAY TO PROVIDE FOR A COUPLE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK ONWARD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. OUTSIDE OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...NEXT SEVEN DAYS SHOULD HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

BEEN A FEW LOCAL POCKETS OF CLEARING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE
MAIN CLEARING LINE IS JUST NOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START BREAKING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT IT MAY BE 190800Z-190900Z BEFORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
REACHES THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. BEST FROST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIER...BUT LOOKS
MORE QUESTIONABLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
FAST ENOUGH. AT THIS POINT...WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE AS
IS.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAT WHAT WAS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY ONCE SKIES CLEAR...SO WILL ONLY NUDGE UP
THE LOWS SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME.

ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS MORNING ONCE SKIES
CLEAR GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND
EARLIER RAINFALL. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE NIGHT GOES BY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THIS COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DUE TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE TO
COMMENCE TONIGHT. LEFT FROST ADVISORY INTACT BUT WENT WITH AREAS
OF FROST RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD FROST BASED ON LOWS ONLY GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES AND SOME QUESTIONABLE LEFT OVER
CLOUDINESS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM HANG ON A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE AREAS OF FROST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOW OF
32 NOT OUT OF QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES RIGHT
ON TOP OF INDIANA FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER FROM A CHILLY START INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

THEN MODELS SWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (SIMILAR TO TODAY/SAT)
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HAVE DOWNPLAYED RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS BASED ON THE
LATEST (DRIER) GUIDANCE. EXPECT THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE AND
UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION JUST LIKE TODAY/S
SYSTEM.

FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PERSIST FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
MONDAY JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MIN TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1252 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES.

IR IMAGES SHOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART AND
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CIGS CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN THEN BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK WITH UNREACHABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP/CP

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