Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 210648
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
248 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated
below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

High pressure is expected across the area for most of the rest of
the week. A frontal system may move into the area over the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Some patchy dense fog starting to show up over northeast Indiana at
this time. Will have to keep an eye on this as the low level flow is
favorable for this to advect into the northeast zones prior to
sunrise. Planning to keep a mention of some fog in the forecast
through the mid morning hours.

Otherwise, lower level cloud should continue to clear out from the
north prior to sunrise, although any additional fog or low cloud
development may delay clearing early this morning. Upper wave
currently dropping southeast through the Plains is expected to
head towards the Tennessee Valley by early this evening. Short
term model guidance suggests the organized lift associated with
this feature will stay off to the southwest of the forecast area
for the most part, so will go with a dry forecast for today.
Satellite upstream suggests quite a bit of mid and high level
cloud will probably move over the area this afternoon.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today
may be a little on the cool side. Will nudge up the guidance a
bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday night/...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Residual cloud cover from today should gradually thin and scatter
out during the night tonight as short wave trough continues to push
southeast. Will continue with a dry forecast tonight.

Fairly quiet weather expected for the rest of the short term as a
large area of surface high pressure slowly drifts through the Great
Lakes. Will maintain some small chance PoPs for showers Thursday
night within a developing warm advection zone for now, but overall
precipitation signals in the model data not impressive.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, the GFS MOS highs on
Wednesday look a little warm. Will cut the guidance highs about a
category at that time. Remainder of the periods look OK for now.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Thursday Night Through Monday/
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was
accepted for most items.

The long term looks to be wet with frequent chances for rain. A warm
front could bring some rain Thursday night, but better chances for
rain will arrive with an upper low and surface low pressure system
later Friday night into the weekend.

Another system may move in for early next week and bring more
chances for rain.

The systems look to bring in warm air for much of the long term,
with highs in the 60s for most days.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 21/0600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1128 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017

The tricky thing overnight will be if spotty IFR conditions will
advect south across the terminals. The SREF LAMP suggests LAF and
IND could conditions deteriorate, while the GFS LAMP suggests they
all could. With low to moderate confidence will go with a tempo IFR
group at LAF, where a 6 hundred foot deck just developed. Otherwise,
just tempo MVFR through 10-12z. Then, good confidence in VFR,
especially after 15z. Would not rule out a shower tomorrow
afternoon, but converage too low for the TAFs.

Winds will be north and northeast less than 10 knots through the TAF
period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MK



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