Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 220739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
338 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Synopsis...Near Term and Short Term sections have been updated below.


Issued at 338 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

High pressure centered over southern Illinois will move east across
the Ohio valley today and east to the middle atlantic states Tuesday.
An upper air disturbance will move our way Wednesday and a cold front
will push across Indiana around Thursday.

High pressure behind this front will affect our weather Friday and
Saturday.   Another weather system will move our way early next week.


.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

High pressure centered over southern Illinois was brining clear skies
across the region.   Model soundings remain quite dry and only expect a
Few diurnal CU later today...but maybe a bit more far northeast.
850 MB temperatures will be similar to yesterday with values around +10 to
+12 celsius.  Given full sunshine and recent temperature trends went closer
to warmer MET temperatures for highs today with values in the upper 70s
over northeast sections to the lower 80s south.

Tonight will be clear and cool with lows in the middle to upper 50s which
is close to a MOS blend.


.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Tuesday will be mostly sunny as the high pressure system moves on to the
middle atlantic coast.  A light to moderate flow on the back side of the
high will allow temperatures to be slightly warmer Tuesday with highs
in the lower 80s most areas and approaching middle 80s south.

Gulf moisture will spread back into our area late Tuesday into Wednesday.
An upper disturbance will move our way by Wednesday.  The NAM...GEMNH
and european models have trended a little quicker in spreading precip
our way late Tuesday night.   As a result will mention 20 percent POPS
as far east as INDY by 12Z Wednesday.

Models indicate best upward forcing will remain just northwest of our area
Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Went with chance POPS most areas Wednesday and
likely POPS northwest and chance POPS elsewhere Wednesday night.

Concerning temperatures stayed close to a MOS blend with lows in the lower
to middle 60s Tuesday night and around 70 Wednesday night.  Highs Wednesday
will be in the lower 80s north and middle 80s south.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night Through Sunday/...

Issued at 203 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

ECMWF Suggests Central Indiana will be on the fringe of High
pressure parked over the southern states...and a quick moving flow
aloft streaming through the Great lakes. A few short wave are
expected to push across the Great Lakes within the flow during
this time...the first on Wednesday night into
Thursday...accompanied by a passing cold front. A second systems
looks to arrive next Saturday night and into Sunday along with
poorly defined weak surface low. For now...superblend has focused
pops on those time period and will stick closely for now.

ECMWF does suggest dry weather on Friday and Saturday as High
pressure remains across the area.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 22/0600Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1247 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Good confidence that VFR conditions will dominate most of the TAF
period. However, with very light to calm winds, clear skies and
small dew point depressions, tempo MVFR or worse fog at the smaller
airports looks prudent 09z-13z. Should see diurnal VFR cu reform
after 18z and dissipate after 00z Tuesday.

Winds will be calm or very light northwest overnight and back to
southwest and light this afternoon and south and southeast after
00z Tuesday.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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