Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 141842
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
242 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

A weak disturbance will slide south of the area today, which may
spark a few morning sprinkles across far southern central Indiana.
Otherwise, expect dry weather today and tonight. A frontal zone
and associated weak disturbances may begin to impinge upon the
area Tuesday onward, with increasing chances for showers and a few
storms as the week wears on. A brief break is expected to end the
work week, before another frontal system moves into the area for
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 928 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Few showers along the East Fork White river have been shrinking
and should be gone within the hour. The rest of the area and
forecast looks pretty good. A mix of sun and clouds with max
temperatures in the middle 80s most areas.

High resolution models hint at peak heating isolated showers
today. Forecast is dry and not confident showers will occur yet so
will watch visible satellite and radar for evidence this could
occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

A frontal zone will begin to impinge upon the region as early as
Tuesday, and models continue to trend wetter earlier in the week.
Pops Tuesday and Tuesday night are low confidence as upper level
support is weak and disorganized. Confidence and pops increase
Wednesday into Wednesday night as the frontal system and more
robust upper level support approaches.

Consensus temperatures were generally in the ballpark compared to
low level thermal progs and were acceptable with minor tweaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Timing of pops will be the main concern for this forecast as models
generally having issues timing various shorts waves in fast flow
aloft. Consensus has an upper wave moving over the lower Great Lakes
and a cold front dropping southeast across central Indiana Thursday
night. Good confidence there will be enough synoptic forcing for
convection and models are showing plenty of instability for thunder.
The activity should end toward Friday morning with the frontal
passage. After that, an amplifying trough may bring more
thunderstorms to parts of the area Saturday afternoon through
Sunday. However, confidence in timing and coverage is low for this
weekend system, so just accpted the blotchy low blend pops.

Near normal blend pops look ok based on low level thermals and
partly cloudy skies. Look for highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows
in the 60s per the blend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 141800Z IND TAF Update/...

Issued at 1240 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Good confidence that VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period.

VFR Conditions are expected this taf period. Should only cirrus
cirrus streaming up from the southwest and diurnal fair weather VFR
cu. Thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will likely hold off until
after 18z Tuesday at LAF.

Winds will be south and then southwest 5 knots or less.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Tucek
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK



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