Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 180453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1153 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 208 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Although its center will move around, high pressure is going to
control Indiana weather into the middle of next week.  This should
keep the Hoosier State mild and mostly dry.

Starting Wednesday, the weather is forecast to get more complex. A
cold front will arrive, to be followed by high pressure Thursday,
and then a warm front Friday.


.NEAR TERM (Rest of Tonight)...

Issued at 943 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Going forecast is right on track and no appreciable changes made.
Previous discussion follows...

Good model agreement provides high confidence the night will be
dry, with increasing cloudiness late from a weak system aloft.
There is some uncertainty about temperatures because they will be
influenced by the exact amount of clouds. Consensus will be used,
with possible errors of 3 degrees.


.SHORT TERM (Saturday through Monday)...

Issued at 208 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

The main forecast issue is the chance of rain tomorrow.

Most guidance has no QPF in our CWA from a weak upper level
system. However, models been consistent over time and with each
other about a slight chance for the south. The 12Z Superblend did
the same thing today. That will be retained. Otherwise good model
agreement produces high confidence in a dry forecast.

The upper level system will produce a lot of clouds tomorrow. They
should clear Saturday night.  Clouds are likely to return Monday in
advance of a stronger system.

Based on recent history, a consensus forecast should work well at
night, but needs to be raised a few degrees Saturday and Sunday. The
consensus will be kept Monday pending later forecasts of sky cover.

Temperature forecast uncertainty is about 3 degrees.


.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 114 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

The extended period will start out with a large ridge of high
pressure aloft, resulting in dry conditions early in the night.
However, the ridge will shift to the east on Monday night as a low
pressure system moves through Ontario and the Great Lakes Region.
As a result, rain will spread across Central Indiana from west to
east starting Monday night and continuing through Tuesday evening.
Latest Superblend initialization is trending toward chance pops
and will not deviate any higher at this time with only marginal
forcing. After that, dry conditions will return for the remainder
of the forecast period as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Latest
model runs have trended any rain with a Gulf system farther south
now. Meanwhile, high temperatures will soar into the mid to upper
60s with lows generally in the mid 40s to low 50s.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 180600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1147 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Just some high clouds through the overnight with southwesterly
winds around 5-10 kts and some LLWS around 40kts at 2000ft.

VFR through the day on Saturday with increasing clouds coming up
from the south. After around 0z could see some MVFR clouds moving
into KBMG and possibly KIND but don`t think they will affect KHUF
and KLAF. At KBMG included BKN025 lowering to BKN015. At KIND
still too much uncertainty, so included scattered decks at those
levels but did not go broken. There may also be some lower
visibilities advecting in from the south as well during that time,
but confidence on this is very low so left out for now.




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