Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 282231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY
LATE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PULL A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR REGION KEEPING US WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT SOME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPREADING EAST
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN INDIANA IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS. THEY WILL SPREAD ON EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL POPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT.
WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL BUT AIRMASS WILL NOT BE THAT
UNSTABLE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER UPSTREAM IS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.  BELIEVE HPC 1 TO
1.5 INCHES QPF ACROSS OUR NORTH SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN THERE IS
STILL LOTS OF DRY AIR IN MID LEVELS AND PWAT NOT OVERLY HIGH.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WENT 1 TO 2 DEGREES ABOVE A MOS
BLEND GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT.  LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE 60S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY LATE MONDAY AND THEN ON TO THE
EAST.  GENERALLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF TO
TWO THIRDS OF OUR REGION AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE MONDAY.  WENT
WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OVER REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA AND A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OUR WAY.  BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

LOTS OF CLOUDS MONDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
THEN.  HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL.    WENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR
LOWS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A COOL AND WET PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL RESULT IN A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA
MUCH OF THE END OF THE WEEK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SEVERAL SHORT WAVE RIDING THE NW FLOW
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THESE FEATURES ARE LOW...ENOUGH HINTS WITHIN THE
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH TO REQUIRE CHANCES FOR POPS EACH DAY FOR NOW.

GIVEN THE COOL NW FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL...WHICH ALLBLEND COVERED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR
WORSE AFTER 04Z AS OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 0Z...AND THEN SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION
RE-DEVLOPING TOWARD 16Z AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WITH INSTABILITY WANING AFTER DARK...AND
RADAR TRENDS NOT INDICATING MUCH UPSTREAM LIGHTNING...WILL NOT PUT
ANY LIGHTNING MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT RATHER JUST SHOWERS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 16Z MONDAY AT LAF AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT
THE OTHER SITES. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
MORE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK

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