Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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304
FXUS63 KIND 192231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE BRINGING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RULE WELL INTO
THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE TO END THE
WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM SWINGS OUT OF THE PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED A CONSENSUS. UNEVENTFUL
EVENING WEATHER-WISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CLOUD DECK
CURRENTLY COMING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD BOTH SCATTER OUT AND MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 40S WHICH MATCHED WELL WITH CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER...AN UPPER WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING RAIN INTO THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE FORCING TO ASSIST THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
THERE IS NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. STILL THE UPPER WAVE LOOKS LIKE
IT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH ON ITS OWN TO EEK OUT FEW TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MORNING STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT
MODELS ARE BRINGING PRECIP IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
WITH LACK OF MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH FORCING HAVE CUT POPS FROM
GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND KEEP THEM IN THE LOW TO MID CHANCE CATEGORY
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE WAVE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CONSENSUS VALUES HANDLED THIS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND TO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO LATE ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
ON TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES TO PUSH INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PLACE US
UNDER A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DAILY
RAIN CHANCES STARTING WITH LOW WEAK POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AND INCREASING THEREAFTER TO LIKELY BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER INCREASING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING
CIRRUS THIS EVENING AND MID CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER
WAVE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THE COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
MAKE ANY MENTION TO THE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT
OR AN HOUR AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...MK

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