Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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648
FXUS63 KIND 080815
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AND INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THE
RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. GUSTY
WINDS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN SUDDEN REDUCTIONS
IN THE VISIBILITY.

VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH SUB ZERO
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY MODERATE AND REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAUSING SUDDEN REDUCTIONS
IN THE VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE
LOWER 40S. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THEM TO DROP BELOW FREEZING.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHERN INDIANA BY EARLY EVENING. RADAR AND OBS REVEALED ONLY A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA THUS
FAR OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVED INTO WESTERN OHIO AND A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVED INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. MEANWHILE...COLDER AIR WILL BE
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST NEAR AND BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH...SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...STEEP 925-700 MILLIBAR LAPSE
RATES AND SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS SUGGEST AREAS MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65 COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVIER AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...COULD ALSO SEE
SOME ENHANCEMENT MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF A KOKOMO TO RUSHVILLE LINE.
ANY SNOWFALL THAT FALLS THIS MORNING WILL AT LEAST INITIALLY HAVE A
HARD TIME STICK WITH THE WARM GROUND. SO...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN
IMPACT UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. BY AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 MPH COULD CAUSE SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN THE VISIBILITY
ALONG WITH SLICK ROADS.

WILL STICK WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
MOSTLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES THAT SEE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS. TOUGH CALL REGARDING
IF THIS WILL BE WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY...BUT AFTER COORDINATION
WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

MOS LOOKS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE COLD
ADVECTION AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR FREEZING. SHOULD ONLY SEE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 302 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

BRIEF SNOW SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...SNOW CHANCES WILL LOWER AND WILL SHIFT
MAINLY TO OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AS LAKE EFFECT THREAT CONTINUES.
WIND CHILLS WILL THEN BECOME CENTER STAGE.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OHIO BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THE APPALACHIANS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...DECENT NORTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY WEAKEN TOWARD THURSDAY
MORNING. SO...STARTED OFF WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MAINLY EAST OF A BEDFORD TO TERRE HAUTE LINE. THEN...CHANCE POPS ARE
IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY...WENT DRY EXCEPT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHEAST.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE BACKING AND LET UP ENOUGH TO PULL LAKE
EFFECT POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FAR NORTHEAST.

BUFKIT WAS SHOWING SNOW RATIOS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 1 TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THUS...DESPITE WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND RESULTANT LOW
QPF...HIGH SNOW RATIOS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETERS SUGGEST STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 3 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF KOKOMO AND RUSHVILLE
WITH PROJECTED AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO AN INCH OR 2 SOUTHWEST OF
BEFORD AND CLINTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER...WILL GO AT OR BELOW
00Z MOS. SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RUSH.

AN ADVISORY WILL BE AN OPTION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT AFTER
COORDINATION...FEEL THE BEST OPTION FOR NOW IS UPDATING THE STRONGLY
WORDED SPECIAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WEATHER
STORY AND TWITTER REGARDING THE SNOW. WILL ALSO HIT THE COLD
TEMPERATURES HARD.

&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

ON THE LARGE SCALE...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
THE DETAILS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH PERHAPS SOME RISE IN HEIGHTS LATE. MODELS ARE HAVING
DISAGREEMENTS ON ENERGY RIDING AROUND THE TROUGH AND THUS CHANCES
FOR SNOW DURING THE PERIOD.

THAT FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE DETAILS AND SEE NO
REASON TO PLAY FAVORITES AT THIS TIME. THUS STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME
REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVING IN THANKS TO THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 080900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AREA OF RAIN /AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW/ IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD KIND.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH THIS
FEATURE. HAVE THUS UPDATED THE TAF TO INDICATE THIS. WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY GUST TO AROUND 15KT WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN MVFR OR LOWER WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MID MORNING ON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MICHIGAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS OUR REGION.
WEATHER DEPICTION INDICATES CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER ACROSS IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHICH WILL
SPREAD OUR WAY BY MID OR LATE MORNING.  SOME MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  BUT STILL EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS 12 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
LATE MONDAY MORNING ON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE TIGHTER.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JH/50



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