Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 191745
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
145 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

A weak disturbance moving through the area today will bring
showers and a few thunderstorms, especially early, before
precipitation ends by this evening and dry weather returns for
most of the next week under the influence of a strengthening
ridge aloft. Temperatures through the period will remain above
normal for the time of year.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 1106 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Again an update to better match pops to radar.

Still have weak surface and upper trough in place over the
area. Despite main area of rain exiting, cannot rule out a pop up
shower or storm this afternoon as eventual breaks in cloud
develop and max temperatures reach near 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Vast majority of the short term will be dry as an upper level
ridge begins to build over the area. Will carry low pops in the
east very early this evening, ending by 03Z to account for any
lingering activity that develops this afternoon. A frontal zone
will approach late Wednesday night, and will carry a slight chance
of showers then to account for this, but this is quite low
confidence.

Consensus temperatures appear reasonable throughout per low level
thicknesses, and expect a warmup back into the mid 80s to low 90s
across the area Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

ECMWF suggests dry weather with above normal temperatures through
this period. ECWMF shows strong ridging in place aloft across the
eastern half of the country. The strong ridge looks to keep
Indiana protected from passing dynamics...keeping them well
northwest of Indiana. Meanwhile at the surface strong subsidence
beneath the ridge results in surface High pressure across the
eastern Great Lakes that keep as dry Easterly flow across Indiana
through the weekend. thus have trended toward a dry forecast. With
little to no change in air mass...have trended highs at or above
the forecast builder blend as warm air reigns supreme under the
ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Models continue to lend high confidence that a strong and persistent
ridge over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will result in dry and
warm weather this weekend and early next week. The blend is in
agreement, so will not make any changes. Look for afternoon highs
mostly in the mid and upper 80s and lows in the 60s per the blend.
Normal highs this time of year are in the mid and upper 70s.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nield
NEAR TERM...Tucek
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...Tucek



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