Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 050654
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

KIND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

ALL TAF SITES DEVELOP SCATTERED CUMULUS BY 051500Z THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBY AT KLAF...KHUF AND KBMG WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KBMG LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG THINS TO UNRESTRICTED AROUND
051200Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...DRT/JP

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