Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 252232
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO AROUND AVERAGE READINGS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 613 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST NORTH OF KOKOMO TO
LAFAYETTE AND ATTICA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS AND
TRAILING STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS HAS PROMPTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME COLD
POOL DOMINATED THE FURTHER SOUTH THEY GET TOWARDS THE WEAK SHEAR
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT A FEW COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK NEAR PERSISTENCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. TRENDED TOWARD SOLUTIONS WITH A SLOWER
MOVING COLD FRONT SINCE THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO WAIT ON THE UPPER
RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT.

FOR TUESDAY WENT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES.  WENT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH SIMILAR POPS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER.

BY WEDNESDAY FRONT WILL BE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SO WENT CHANCE POPS
ALL AREAS. KEPT POPS LOW AS THERE WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT FROM A JET STREAK WELL TO THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH
AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH WITH COLD FRONT HAVING SUNK FARTHER SOUTH.
STILL NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR IT.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...ON TUESDAY MAV MOS STILL LOOKS TOO WARM
GIVEN CLOUD COVER FROM POTENTIAL STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND. WITH
FRONT AND POTENTIAL RAIN IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MAV STILL LOOKS
WARM. WENT IN BETWEEN MAV/MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY HOWEVER...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT REESTABLISHING AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND INTO THE REGION. WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPECIFIC
TIMING TO THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE ALOFT...WILL PLACE HIGHEST
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 260000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES AND THEN THE FOCUS WILL BE ON OVERNIGHT FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS.

TWO LINES OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF INDIANA AND ILLINOIS
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE SHOWING A SOUTHERLY
MOTION. FIRST LINE WAS MOVING THROUGH LAF AT 630 PM EDT AND AWIPS
SPEED DISTANCE TOOL HAS THE SECOND LINE TO LAF IN BETWEEN 00Z AND
01Z. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS WERE INDICATING
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF IND BETWEEN 00Z AND
03Z. WILL GO WITH TEMPO MVFR THUNDER AT LAF THROUGH 01Z AND IND
THROUGH 03Z. WILL ALSO ADD WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS FROM 340 DEGREES
BASED ON ESTIMATED DIRECTION OF OUTFLOW WINDS.

WITH AIRMASS UNCHANGED...WILL GO WITH SIMILAR FOG AND LOW STRATUS
TIMING AS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH BLOWOFF FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL DELAY IT AN HOUR OR TWO AND NOT GO QUITE AS LOW
AS LAST NIGHT.  WILL GO WITH IFR AND WORSE AFTER 04Z AT BMG AND
HUF...MVFR AFTER 08Z AT LAF AND VFR AT IND.

FINALLY...TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOULD JUST SEE FEW TO SCATTERED
DIURNAL CU...EXCEPT AT PERHAPS AT LAF...WHERE A STORM OR TWO COULD
POP UP AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT SOUTH OR CALM AWAY FROM STORMS TONIGHT AND
SOUTHWEST AND WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...MK

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