Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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423
FXUS63 KIND 230221
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1021 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Elongated west-east mid/upper level trough centered over MO will
swing southeastward through tonight into TN extending southwest
into LA. Water Vapor imagery shows that southwest IN is now being
dry slotted at mid levels which is pushing any leftover
precipitation eastward. High pressure from the Plains into the
southwestern Great Lakes will clear our skies out after midnight
across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 948 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Clouds continues to decrease overall, but a band of high clouds will
continue to work south across the area into the overnight. Also,
some mid cloud will sneak into the far southwest. Thus feel partly
cloudy at least into the early overnight should still work.

However, with the earlier overall decrease of clouds, feel
temperatures will get a little lower than previously thought. Thus
nudged down lows a bit. Far northern areas may get cold enough for a
frost threat, but feel that winds will stay up enough to mitigate
the threat.

Previous discussion follows...

With precipitation moving out of the southern parts of our forecast
area this evening and skies clearing as High pressure moves into the
region, expect temperatures to fall into the lower-mid 40s from
north to south across the area. Only some lingering mid level clouds
should remain across our southern counties towards morning with
lightening northeasterly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

High pressure will extend from the south central Great Lakes
southward into the lower MS valley keeping the area dry and
pleasant for the next few days. We will be between storm systems,
in fact with one moving up the east coast, and the next weather
system for us developing over the High Plains. Temperatures will
be around normal for Sunday with highs in the mid 60s/lows in the
mid 40s, then warm up a little each day into Tuesday with highs in
the low-mid 70s and lows around 50 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night Through Saturday/...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Ensembles suggest a short wave trough will lift through the western
Great Lakes around next Wednesday, accompanied by a surface frontal
system. Some of the members suggest front may stall out in the
vicinity into Thursday, due to developing upper ridge over the East
Coast. Will keep PoPs in the forecast for both Wednesday and
Thursday for now to cover the potential of a slower or stalling
front.

Otherwise, there are still some differences among the ensembles as
to how strong the developing East Coast ridge becomes by the end of
next week. Overall, ensembles look very wet towards the end of next
week, so will continue PoPs for those days as well.

&&


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 230300Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1021 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

No changes needed to KIND TAF.

Previous discussion follows...

VFR conditions expected through the period.

Drier air flowing in from the northeast continues to eat away at
clouds, especially at low and mid levels. Thus expect mainly high
clouds for this evening, and even those should diminish overnight.
Only some high clouds are expected again for some areas Sunday.

Winds will remain from the northeast around 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DWM
NEAR TERM...DWM/50
SHORT TERM...DWM
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50



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