Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 291427

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1027 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016


The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.



Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible this afternoon as a
weak cold front tracks through the area. Dry weather is expected to
begin the week with less humidity. Rain chances will return by
midweek as a storm system tracks through central Indiana. Cooler and
drier air will follow in the wake of this system for next weekend.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 1009 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Forecast thinking for the rest of the day remains the same.
Latest hi- res model runs indicate scattered storms popping along
a line from Kokomo down to Vincennes in the 17-18z time frame.
However, greatest instability and dynamics with a weak frontal
boundary look to come into play farther east as the afternoon goes
on. Therefore, slight chance PoPs across the western half of the
area remains the best bet with slightly higher to the south and
east of the Indy metro. Plenty of sun this morning will give way
to decent cu development as there should be no problem reaching
convective temperatures by early afternoon. Highs in the low to
mid 80s across the majority of the area, except a tad higher in
the south, appear on track.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Forecast challenges focus primarily on temps as surface ridging
brings dry weather for a good portion of the short term.

Remnant frontal boundary with associated scattered convection will
be east of the forecast area this evening. A high pressure ridge
will expand into the area overnight bringing with it a nice surge of
drier and less humid air into central Indiana. Skies will become
mostly clear tonight...persisting into Memorial Day as the surface
ridge continues as the dominant weather feature.

Both the NAM and GFS attempting to bring isolated precip into the
northern forecast area Monday night as a warm front extends
southeast from low pressure moving into the Upper Midwest. Prefer to
maintain a dry forecast at this time as model sounding and RH progs
show an abundance of dry air and subsidence. Have introduced low
chance pops for areas to the northwest of the Indy metro for Tuesday
afternoon and night...but the drier airmass combined with stagnant
flow and little forcing aloft will serve as hindrances to
convective development as the surface ridging lingers across the
Ohio Valley.

Temps...The warm summer-like temperatures will continue through the
short term albeit it with lower humidity than that experienced the
last several days. MOS guidance in general aligned well with low
level thermals as highs both Monday and Tuesday are expected in the
mid to possibly upper 80s. The combination of light flow and the
drier air should enable a broader range to overnight lows at night
ranging from the upper 50s in the normal cool spots to the mid 60s
in the urban areas.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...

Issued at 233 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

An upper trough and a surface frontal system will bring chances for
rain Wednesday and Thursday.

Another upper trough will move in for Friday into Saturday. Looks
like there might be enough forcing/moisture for Superblend`s slight
chance PoPs Friday, but removed any of its PoPs for Saturday as best
forcing/moisture will have moved off just to the south and east of
the area.

Temperatures will start out above average, but cool to below average
by next weekend.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 291200Z TAF Issuance)...

Issued at 630 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

MVFR fog possible early in some outlier sites, otherwise VFR
conditions expected.

Any MVFR fog at the outlier sites will burn off quickly this
morning. Scattered low end VFR clouds will increase this morning
forming a ceiling by the 14-16Z time frame. These will persist until
drier air works in from the west during the afternoon.

Scattered convection looks to develop just east of the sites after
18Z, so left mention out of the TAFs.

Some gusty winds are possible this afternoon with a cold front
passage. The front will also shift winds to the west.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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