Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 161847
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
247 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER MOST OF
THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BECOME
WARMER AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS OUR REGION.   MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
COOLER AFTER NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS.
CLEARING TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SPREAD INTO OUR REGION...BUT
GIVEN WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING SOME AREAS NEAR SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS. THE SREF MODEL
INDICATES THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND IT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
12Z.

OTHER THAN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL
BE HOW QUICK LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF OUR REGION WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP DURING THE DAY.  WILL SLOW DOWN
CLEARING A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.  WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
NORTHWEST HALF AND PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHEAST HALF THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
MORE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE A LITTLE
LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
ON IN THE SHORT TERM.  EVEN LATER ON IT WILL STILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS A RIDGE EXTENDS WEST FROM THE HIGH CENTER ACROSS OUR
REGION.  MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AROUND WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY RESULT WITH A
LITTLE MORE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THEN.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR +7 TO +9 CELSIUS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND +10 TO +12 CELSIUS IN THE SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT...SO WENT A FEW
DEGREES LOWER SOME AREAS WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES..

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST...PROVIDING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE ON THE LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIG AN UPPER TROUGH EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
IS NOT ONLY QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED.
SHOWERS AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND
INITIALIZATION AS IT SEEMED TO HANDLE THE SITUATION REASONABLY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN AS WE BEGIN THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS LAF...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED AND RISEN ENOUGH TO WARRANT VFR
CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BY 2100Z. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES WITH CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KEEPING WITH CURRENT FORECAST
OF MOST SITES GETTING DOWN TO 3SM...4SM AT IND. BE ADVISED THAT
IFR AND EVEN LIFR VSBYS COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT LAF AND
BMG. FOG IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER BY 1200 TO 1300Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...MRD

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