Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221414
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT. A
QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LOW SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN DRY WEATHER UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ANOTHER WAVE
COULD BRING MORE SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS PESKY LOW CLOUDS TRY TO ROTATE WEST INTO THE
AREA. AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THIS MORNING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
EAST/DISSIPATE SO STILL ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE ONLY TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. FOR
THE MOMENT HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THEM AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO LOWER MAV NUMBERS IN THE MID 30S. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST TO FORM. AFTER COLLABORATION WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT ONE MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY
NIGHT THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COULD BRING LOW RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA. WHILE UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE LOOKS DECENT
THERE IS NO SUPPORT AT THE SURFACE AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO WILL ACCEPT CONSENSUS POPS OF LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTH WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT
MORE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SOME SUNSHINE UNDER WEAK UPPER
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  IT
WON/T BE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES WITH AN UPPER LOW.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE LOW
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

STRATUS DECK INCHING CLOSER TO INDY METRO FROM THE EAST BUT HAVING
TROUBLE ADVANCING INTO DRIER AIRMASS. MADE SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO
CEILINGS AND WINDS AT KIND FOR REST OF THE DAY...BUT ANTICIPATE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN EAST OF INDY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REAR EDGE OF WRAP-A-ROUND CLOUD DECK ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW
OVER VIRGINIA HAS BACKED SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN INDIANA. FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE CLOUD LAYER
BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT BACKING
SW INTO KIND AND KBMG AROUND 221600Z TODAY THEN DISSIPATING BEFORE
SUNSET.

KBMG HAD A BRIEF LAYER OF FOG DRIFT THROUGH OBSERVATION SITE BUT
DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE AROUND BEYOND SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH VEERING
TO EAST TONIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION WILL HAVE RIDGE
AXIS MOVE OVER INDIANA TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TUCEK/RYAN

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