Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260748
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
248 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS
THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT COLD TEMPERATURES IN IT/S WAKE WILL CREATE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES THROUGH THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL THEN COME MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL WAVES TRACK THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER A COLD START ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY
THURSDAY AND COOL A LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 956 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA AS EXPECTED WITH MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW GONE BY MIDNIGHT.
WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES EARLIER SAW A LOT OF MELTING
INITIALLY AND THUS HAVE CUT AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS COOLED FASTER. THE MELTING OF SNOW AND
INITIAL START WITH RAIN...THEN TOPPED BY SNOW AND FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE MID AND LOW 20S IS CAUSING
ROADS AND OTHER OUTDOOR SURFACES TO ICE OVER. WHILE THE SNOW WILL
END SOON...THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH AND THIS WILL CREATE/KEEP HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ISSUED AN SPS TO THIS EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON LIGHT SNOW CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE ALOFT TRAVERSES THROUGH THE REGION.

MONDAY WILL BE DRY BUT VERY COOL AS A SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS QUICKLY
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OFF TO OUR EAST. NICE AXIS OF FORCING
ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW
RATIOS SHOULD BE AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO IN THE 12-1 RANGE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO FALL. SYSTEM WILL DEPART
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST PRIOR TO TUESDAY MORNING.

REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE A RETURN TO QUIET WEATHER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS AGAIN ARE LIKELY TO BE QUITE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP TUESDAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING. KEPT SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MAVMOS ON HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FREEZING ON MONDAY. A MOS BLEND LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR LOWS MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS.  BUT LOWERED TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL REMAIN.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ON TO THE EAST AND A
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
ON THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT THERE COULD BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AS SOME COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION...SO STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

LEFT SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE TO ADD
IN A LOW POP SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND PERHAPS A SLOWER MOVING
SYSTEM PER LATEST TRENDS.

AFTER A WARMER THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY WENT COLDER THAN SUPERBLEND AND CLOSER TO THE
COLDER ECMWF /AND WPC/ AS GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING COLDER ANYWAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR CATEGORY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AT KIND AND KBMG AT THIS TIME.
SNOW SHOULD END AT THOSE SITES AS WELL THOUGH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER THAT...MVFR CLOUD DECK COULD LINGER THROUGH
MID MORNING AND THEN BECOME VFR AROUND LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. EXPECT AIR
COLUMN TO MOISTEN AND MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN BY LATE EVENING.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 28KTS THROUGH MON 09Z
AND THEN TAPER OFF. THEY WILL THEN BE SUSTAINED AT 5 TO 10 KTS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...VARYING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
AT TIMES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH/CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...TDUD

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