Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 071837
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
137 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

Colder air will flow into the area tonight and could bring some
flurries with it. High pressure will then keep dry but cold
conditions into Saturday. A low pressure system will bring a
snow/rain mix Saturday night and Sunday, with another system
bringing more snow chances by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This afternoon/

Issued at 1149 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

Forecast elements pretty much on target. May tweek a few max temps
this afternoon...a degree or two lower in the south given that
they are currently in mid 30s and thickening cloud cover to
arrive.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday Night/
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

An upper wave and upper jet will move into the area tonight, and
another reinforcing shot of colder air will also move in. Forcing is
not great, and moisture is limited, especially in the lowest
levels. Thus usually would go with a dry forecast.

However, have seen this kind of colder air squeeze out what limited
moisture is available many times in the past. Thus will have
flurries possible most areas tonight.

The cold air then moves into the area for the remainder of the short
term. Put some flurries in for the extreme northeast forecast area
Thursday night into early Friday as some weak lake enhanced snow
could sneak into the area.

Stayed with a model blend for temperatures. Wind chills in the
single digits will be possible across parts of the area at times
Thursday into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...

Issued at 138 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

There is high confidence for the first significant snow of the
season Sunday into Monday. A major winter storms is possible, but
much less certain.

The models disagree about many features with this forecast. This
results in different predictions about snow timing and amount.
However no matter which model you believe, sometime from Sunday into
Monday there should be at least 1 to 3 inches. In the worst case
scenario, snowfall could be near 6 inches.

Even after Monday, there is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast as
different models have very different predictions. The blended
forecast from the regional initialization will be used because it
will minimize errors.



&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 071800z TAFs/

Issued at 1149 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

VFR expected through around 081200z with winds at or below 10 kts.
As low pressure trough wrap-around cloud currently across upper
Midwest rotates south...it should overspread TAF sites 1200z-1500z
tomorrow with MVFR decks around 2000 feet. Also expect with this
arctic surge gusts near 20kts after 081400z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...TUCEK



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