Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 250820

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
419 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

High pressure over the great lakes this morning will move on to
the east.  A low pressure system will bring showers and perhaps
a few thunderstorms to central Indiana mainly late Wednesday into
early Thursday.  Another system could bring more rain Friday night.
Otherwise dry and seasonable mild conditions will be the rule.


.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

High pressure was across the great lakes this morning and
satellite showed clear skies from Indiana and eastward. High
clouds were pushing into western Illinois and model soundings
indicate lots of high clouds with scattered middle clouds will
spread east over northern sections later today...while mostly
thin high clouds will be the rule in the south.  High temperatures
will range from the middle 50s northeast to the middle 60s
southwest which is close to a MOS blend.

Models try and generate rain across the area late tonight with a
warm front in the vicinity. However, feel that while some lift may
occur, the atmosphere will still be pretty dry. Will cut back
SuperBlend`s PoPs.  Could see a few sprinkles Carroll county...
while other areas will remain dry overnight.

Tweaked tempertures up a degree a few areas with clouds and warm
advection...otherwise stayed close to Super blend tempertures
with lows in the lower to middle 40s tonight.


.SHORT TERM.../Wednesday through Thursday Night/
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Models are in general agreement and will use blend. An area of
low pressure will move to eastern Iowa midday Wednesday...
across northern Indiana Wednesday night and into the eastern
great lakes Thursday. A warm front will push north across Indiana
Wednesday and a trailing cold front will move east across our region
Wednesday night.  Expect showers to spread across our region late
Wednesday...continue Wednesday night and end over most of central
Indiana early Thursday. There will be enough instability for a few
thunderstorms with the system Wednesday afternoon and night.

A few showers may linger into early Thursday...but the rest of
Thursday and Thursday night will be dry as high pressure behind
the cold front builds into the Ohio valley late Thursday and
Thursday night.

Went closer to warmer MET temperatures Wednesday with good warm
advection...some sun early and showers not arriving until late in
the day.  Otherwise...stayed close to a MOS blend on temperatures
most other periods.


.LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Ensembles suggest the main feature during this period will be a short
wave trough that is expected to pass across the Great Lakes in the
Friday night to Sunday time frame.

For the most part, the ensembles suggest the best forcing and
precipitation threat with this trough will remain off to the north of
the local area for the most part. There does seem to be a narrow
window of opportunity for showers Friday night within the warm
advection pattern in advance of the trough. Will go with chance PoPs
for the Friday night period, otherwise will go with a dry extended.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 250900Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 419 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

High clouds will increase throughout the TAF period, but nothing
that will affect flight operations.  VFR conditions are expected to
be the prevailing flight category throughout the TAF period as high
pressure remains over the region. Winds will start out northerly and
gradually veer to the east with sustained speeds of 4 to 8 kts.





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