Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 241756
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
156 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...

The Long Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

An upper trough over the great lakes will bring cool and
dry weather through early next week.   A weak upper disturbance
will bring an isolated shower or thundershowers to some areas
late Monday.

Warmer weather will return later next week as a southerly
flow increases.  A few thunderstorms are possible as gulf
moisture returns and a cold front approaches from the northwest
later next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Dry and cool weather will occur today and tonight as high
pressure over the northern plains builds southeast.
Superblend temperatures accepted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Monday Night/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A dry secondary cold front will move through Sunday.
Temperatures will be quite cool as models indicate
850 temperatures as low as +4 degrees by Monday evening.

High pressure over the northern plains will bring dry
weather as it builds towards Kentucky.  However a
weak upper disturbance will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms
northwest half Monday afternoon.  Will also mention a slight
chance of showers Monday evening west and southwest.

Superblend temperatures seem reasonable...only minor tweaks made.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Temperatures will be back near seasonal normals and the pattern may
once again turn active mid week onward as flow aloft becomes more
zonal with multiple weak disturbances and a surface frontal system
poised to move into the region late in the week.

Consensus initialization handled things well with few tweaks
required.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 241500Z IND TAF Update)...
Issued at 1156 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Good confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Satellite
was showing developing diurnal cu deck with bases around 3500 feet.
Cu development progs suggest broken ceilings are possible. The cu
should dissipate after 01z as the sun sets and leave behind passing
cirrus. More diurnal VFR cu likely after 15z Sunday as well.

Winds will be west to around 12 knots this afternoon and drop off to
4 to 8 knots after 01z. Winds will increase a touch after 15z Sunday
to around 10 knots.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...MK


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