Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 240558

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1258 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.


Issued at 1259 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

A weak front is forecast to approach Indiana from the northwest
today, then cross the state overnight. High pressure will control
Hoosier weather from Saturday into Tuesday. After that, the weather
should turn a little wetter as a complicated combination of low
pressure systems and fronts affect our region.


.NEAR TERM (Today)...

Issued at 1259 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

There is high confidence with this forecast.

Models agree the area will be dry with increasing afternoon
cloudiness in advance of a weak front. They also agree well on
on the fields controlling temperatures. This suggests consensus
should be nudged up since the latest runs concur today should be
relatively warm. Temperature errors should be 3 degrees or less.


.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday night)...

Issued at 1259 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

There is good model agreement and high confidence the weather will
be dry. A weak front should bring some clouds tonight. After that
skies should be mostly clear under high pressure, but there could be
a limited amount of stratocumulus downwind from the Lakes.

There is high confidence in temperature trends with this
forecast, with all models agreeing on the basics. There is
moderate confidence in specific temperature forecasts, which will
be sensitive to whether there are some as opposed to no lake
effect clouds. The consensus will be used with possible errors of
2-5 degrees.


.LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
Issued at 220 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Low confidence forecast after Monday night as models and ensembles
continued to struggle finding a common solution, which gets more
common the further into the cold season. So, will not make any
chances with small pops starting late Tuesday and Tuesday night
associated with complex frontal systems and a pair of upper systems.
Low confidence in temperatures and timing and coverage of showers is
low and goes hand in hand  with the low confidence in synoptic
temporal and spacial features.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 240600Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1152 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

No significant cloud cover and unrestricted visibility expected
at the terminals through midday Friday. Surface winds 180-200
degrees at 4-7 kts overnight will become 190-210 degrees at 9-13
kts by midday Friday. Occasional surface gusts around 18 kts
possible by that time.




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