Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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093
FXUS63 KIND 281420
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY...BUT WET CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN OHIO THAT
HAS JUST EXITED CENTRAL INDIANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS FOUND ACROSS IOWA. COOL NE
FLOW WAS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE WARMER AND MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE FOUND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...SHOWING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVER 1200 J/KG OF CAPE...BEFORE MID
LEVEL CAPPING ARRIVES BY 00Z. FURTHERMORE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY AND BROADLY PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.
THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BUT THEN BEGIN RAMPING UP POPS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE OHIO VALLEY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE REMNANT SURFACE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE
EAST. TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HANG BACK AS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT PERSISTING AS AN UPPER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHALLOW INVERSION DEVELOPING
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
MANIFEST AS A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL NOT MIX OUT UNTIL CLOSER TO
MIDDAY AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS. WILL START OUT THESE AREAS MOSTLY
CLOUDY...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRANSITIONED BACK TO A FASTER ARRIVAL OF
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL ALIGN NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A DRY
EVENING FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AS A 45KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS...ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID
MORNING AND MAKING FOR A VERY WET AND COOL SATURDAY. WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AS
TEMPS LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A RAW EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT SUPPORTS GOING COOLER FOR SATURDAY...AND HAVE DROPPED
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT MAY
NEED TO DROP TEMPS EVEN FURTHER AS THE SIGNS ARE THERE FOR TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70. UTILIZED A MODEL
BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED
FOR MOST ITEMS.

ONE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD KEEPING
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SETUP WITH
EACH RUN...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN LATER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BETTER
MATCH OBS AND SATELLITE LOOP. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
MVFR OR WORSE LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. CEILINGS CHANGE FROM IFR TO VFR WITHIN SHORT
DISTANCES...AND THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE MOVING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PLAYED THINGS PESSIMISTIC AND KEPT IFR AROUND FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY RAISING CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH.

CURRENT CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SITES BY VALID TIME...BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TODAY. HOWEVER...AT THE MOMENT
FEEL THAT THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/CP



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