Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 050156
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
956 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FANTASTIC EVENING TO ENJOY INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIN CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAD EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. 0130Z TEMPS WERE COMFORTABLE IN THE
70S.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF I-70 OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
TENNESSEE. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PROMOTE PATCHY
FOG ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE
OR TWO OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH CIRRUS PRESENT AND ALSO RAISED
TEMPS FOR INDY METRO BASED ON LOWS LAST FEW NIGHTS.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. HAPPY 4TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WILL STALL
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE TRENDED WETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH THERE WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS SATURDAY.  WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SEEMS LOW UNTIL SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY ON RISING TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUPER BLEND ON LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WINDS BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AROUND
4500 FT SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY START OF TAFS AND REFORM 051500Z.

VSBY REMAINS BIGGEST QUESTION. CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CARRIED MVFR TEMPO GROUPS 0800Z-1200Z AT ALL BUT KIND BASED
ON PERSISTENCE FROM EVENTS OF THIS MORNING. GIVEN A DAY OF DRYING
TODAY AND WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DOUBT IFR PERIOD TO
OCCUR LIKE THIS MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TUCEK

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