Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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143
FXUS63 KIND 110748
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
248 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

A STRONG AND COLD CANADIAN UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL DOMINANT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARMUP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL OR WARMER BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK...CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 959 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

GOING FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE. MIE DID BRIEFLY OBSERVE -SN WITH
THE TAIL END OF LAKE EFFECT PLUME BUT ECHOES HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA. SHOULD BE NO IMPACT FROM
THIS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

A WEAKENING IMPULSE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ARE ABOUT
ALL CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SEE FROM THIS WAVE PASSING THROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. THEN SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT REGIME SAW VERY LITTLE
REASON TO STRAY FAR FROM A MOS BLEND OF LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM 6 TO 11 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
THE DAY...HOWEVER PORTIONS MAY BE MOSTLY SUNNY AT TIMES.

THEN MODELS ARE PREDICTING A FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BY AS EARLY AS VERY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR AND
THEN LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES A LULL
IN SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY FOR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THEN THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND SINKS FARTHER SOUTH AND PUSHES EASTWARD
NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE
COLDEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM AROUND -5 TO -10 FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK SNOW POTENTIAL FOLLOWED BY RISING
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE REGARDING A COMMON
SOLUTION FOR WHAT AREA SHOULD RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW AS AN UPPER
WAVE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND A SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE GULF STATES ON MONDAY. MORE THAN
ONE EURO RUN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BROUGHT THE HEAVIEST SNOW
AXIS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z RUN IS NOW
WELL SOUTH AGAIN OVER TENNESSEE WHICH AGREES WITH THE 00Z GFS. BASED
ON THE SYNOPTIC SETUP...THIS LOOKS LIKE A BETTER BET. STILL...THE
INITIAL WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRAILING TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH LIGHT OR POSSIBLY MODERATE
AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING MORE LIGHT
QPF TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. PARTIAL MODEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MIXED.

REGIONAL BLEND HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS STARTING OFF IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY AND
WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 110600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE 050 EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD THIN OUT AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...SOME CLOUD
COVER AROUND 025 MAY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE KIND/KLAF TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FLOWING
OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS



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