Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 031950
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HANGING
AROUND INTO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY BY AROUND 7 PM. EARLY TONIGHT WILL
BE DRY...BUT AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
OVERNIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE
ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE 8 AM WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGIN SOMETIME IN THE 4-7 AM TIMEFRAME.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR IN THE MODELS AND A BLEND WAS
USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DECENT UPPER FORCING IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONTOGENESIS CROSSING THE AREA AND THUS THOUGHT LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WERE WARRANTED...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
NORTH WHERE THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL BE. WHILE THE FRONT WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT COULD
ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALSO OF NOTE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH.

SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS BUILDING OVER
THE AREA AND USHERS IN DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE UPPER LOW BRINGING DOWN COOL AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN LINGER IN
THE VICINITY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTIES
IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP EACH DAY LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH
OUT EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER AFTER 10Z WEDNESDAY.

STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE KIND/KBMG SITES AT THE
MOMENT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY VALID TIME. THESE
SITES ALSO ARE SEEING VARYING CEILINGS FROM MVFR TO VFR. KEPT MVFR
FOR AN HOUR OR SO...THEN ALLOWED THEM TO GO VFR. AT THE OTHER
SITES...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
IFR MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50


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