Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 291414
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS
IN THE WEST ABOUT 2 DEGREES.  THIS WAS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND PUTS THEM A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL EFFECTS AND THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER
FLOW. CONSIDERING THE PATH OF THE SHORT WAVE...THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS ONLY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST WITH NO
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO MORNING FORECAST. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN VFR CU DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF AFTER
18-19Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION FOR THE TERMINALS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WEAK UPPER WAVES IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CU TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM AT IND
OR LAF AFTER 16Z...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS.

LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHT TO CALM AFTER 01Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

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