Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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774
FXUS63 KIND 221400
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1000 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure is expected across the area into the early parts of
the week. A frontal system will affect the area towards the
middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Forecast is in good shape. Made some minor tweaks to sky cover far
east with area of mid cloud moving south across that area this
morning. Also bumped up temperatures a bit west based on latest
trends.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry weather expected today under upper ridge and surface high
pressure. Some mid level clouds may move through the eastern
zones later today as a short wave trough drops through the eastern
Great Lakes.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today
are probably a little on the cool side. Will bump up the guidance
highs by a category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Dry weather expected to continue through Tuesday with surface and
upper ridging in control. By Tuesday night, model data suggest
upper ridge will begin to flatten out. Some lift is progged to
move into the area Tuesday night, but at this point, not seeing
much of a low level focus for convection. Flow at 850mb looks
rather weak as well. For now, will keep some small chance PoPs in
the forecast for Tuesday night.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, will bump up the GFS MOS
highs for Monday a category. Guidance lows look reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

The main focus to the long term continues to be on the looming
stormy and warmer period.

Models continue to be in excellent agreement regarding the main
features of the the synoptic pattern...lending plenty of confidence
that mid week through next weekend will be an unsettled period.
Models agree that an upper southwest trough will eject several
disturbances northeast across an increasingly warm...moist and
unstable environment over the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes.
The upper trough will get deflected northward across the upper
Missouri Valley next weekend as it encounters a strong eastern ridge
of high pressure. This will keep the Plains frontal system to our
west through the Holiday weekend with the moist southerly flow
continuing ahead of it. Instability progs were showing plenty of
mixed layer CAPE through the period for thunder. Could also see a
few strong to severe storms at times. At any rate...good chance to
likely pops look good through the weekend per regional blend.

Slightly above normal regional blend highs look good as the warmer
flow off the Gulf battles it out with convective cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 221200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 06z Monday. Would
not rule out brief MVFR or worse fog at the smaller airports
overnight as the high settles over the area resulting in very light
to calm winds. Could see some AC this morning across the eastern
terminals per satellite. Otherwise...dry column and high pressure
will result in clear skies through the TAF period.

Winds will be northwest and increase to around 10 knots this
afternoon before diminishing this evening.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK



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