000
FXUS63 KIND 091802
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
202 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014

ANOTHER WARMUP IS IN STORE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ON TAP.

THEN...A PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO
CENTRAL INDIANA MIDWEEK ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...MORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014

MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON MORNING STRATOCU AND OR PATCHY FOG WITH
THE CONCENTRATION THIS AFTERNOON ON TEMPERATURES.

THE RUC13 925 MILLIBAR RH PROGS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATOCU DECK...CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. IT SUGGESTS THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DECK WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
AT 12Z THIS MORNING...SO LEFT SOME SKY COVER IN THERE THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING THEIR DEW POINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS...WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THE STRATOCU AND OR FOG WILL HANG AROUND LONGER THAN THAT
WITH HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND OR FOG ARE
GONE...THERE SHOULD BE SUNNY SKIES WITH MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING
A DRY COLUMN AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...PREFER THE WARMER 00Z GFS MOS WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 00Z CONSALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S WHICH IS JUST
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014

TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SHORT TERM SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING A BLEND.

MODELS KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
GULF CREATING A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A FRONT SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN OVERRUNNING REALLY RAMPS UP AND ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
KENTUCKY.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS ARE IMPLYING
QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AND POSSIBLY AC WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM. THUS...PREFER THE 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAS MORE SKY COVER THAN ANY BLEND. DESPITE THIS...PREFER
TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER 00Z GFS ONCE AGAIN AS IT HAS BEEN DOING
BETTER WITH THE RECENT WARMER DAYS. ESPECIALLY PREFER THE WARMER
GFS ON MONDAY WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WE SHOULD SEE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT...HOWEVER AS
THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF INDIANA BY THURSDAY STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH EJECT AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS AT THAT TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON DAY7.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 091800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS INDIANA
TO WESTERN NEW YORK WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID AND HIGH
CLOUD CEILINGS. A GOOD LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE
GOOD MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT...PREVENTING FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONFIRM...SHOWING DRY
LOWER LEVELS WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

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