Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 310715
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
315 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

A cold front will bring a return of rain chances to central Indiana
Wednesday into Thursday, and then another frontal system will bring
more rain for the weekend. Above normal temperatures mid week will
gradually cool to below average by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Skies were partly cloudy early this morning as high clouds move into
the area from an upper wave back across Missouri.

This upper wave will weaken as is moves into Illinois today. Models
try and generate convection across parts of central Indiana today,
especially north and west along a dewpoint boundary.

With the upper wave weakening, some models already overdoing
rainfall with it, and the lack of a good flow of moisture into the
area today, feel that the models forecast of rainfall are overdone
during the day today. Chances will be nonzero, but believe they will
remain low enough to not mention. Will continue with a dry forecast.

Temperatures have been getting closer to or even exceeding the
warmest MOS numbers lately. Thus went with the warmer MET for highs
today, and even warmer than that at some locations based on recent
history.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday night/
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

Focus is on chances for rain through the period. GFS looks to be too
fast in clearing out rainfall Thursday into Thursday night. Thus
ignored its solution in later periods. Otherwise used a blend.

Any forcing should remain west of the area tonight so removed any
PoPs and went dry all areas.

On Wednesday a cold front will approach the area from the west.
Better moisture will start to flow into the area during the day.
Looks like best forcing doesn`t arrive until afternoon, so cut back
PoPs during the morning. Overall forcing does not look high enough
though to go any higher than chance category PoPs.

The front will move through Wednesday night. Stuck with chance PoPs
again given expected forcing and weakening instability with loss of
heating.

The front will stall out just south of the area into Thursday night.
GFS tries to move the front too far south, given that the upper flow
will be near parallel with the surface front for much of the period.
So as noted above went with the other models and kept PoPs over most
of the area Thursday and brought them back farther north Thursday
night.

Generally stuck with a model blend for temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

The upper level flow across the country will transition through the
extended from quasi-zonal to a much more amplified pattern
highlighted by a strong ridge in the west and a trough in the
eastern part of the country. This will result in cooler than normal
temperatures for the first weekend of June and into the following
week across the region.

While the main features are sampled well by the extended
models...there are discrepancies in the location of the departing
cold front for the end of this week and additional differences with
respect to the expansion of the upper trough into the area by early
next week. ECMWF maintaining the remnant front further north over
the Ohio Valley than other models on Friday...largely due to a
stronger upper ridge over the southeast states and a flatter flow
aloft initially across the region. Have maintained a dry forecast
for Friday and Friday night but certainly plausible that a low
chance pop will need to be introduced at some point if model
consensus starts trending towards the ECMWF.

Initial energy aloft will arrive into the Great Lakes over the
weekend...with mid level heights buckling and the expansion of the
broad upper ridge commencing. Surface wave and front will move
through the region late Saturday into Sunday...promoting scattered
convection and ushering in cooler temperatures in its wake.
Additional waves aloft will amplify the trough further over the
region early next week...with progressively cooler temperatures and
more threats for showers and storms for Monday and perhaps beyond
with the influence of the upper trough likely to persist for much of
next week.

High temperatures will drop slowly through the extended...with highs
in the upper 70s and lower 80s Friday falling all the way back into
the lower and mid 70s for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 310600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1220 AM EDT Tue May 31 2016

VFR conditions will prevail for duration of TAF period due to high
pressure over the region. Winds will start out southwesterly and
eventually back to the southeast at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...TDUD


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