Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251853
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
253 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

A weak frontal system is expected to move through the area towards
the middle of week, otherwise high pressure is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 927 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Looks like there is a good chance for another day of 90+
temperatures across much of central Indiana. Made some minor
increases in today`s high with another day of summer like
conditions across the state. Previous discussion follows...

Strong mid level ridging aloft should result in dry and warm weather
today. Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today
look a little on the cool side. Will bump up the guidance numbers
about a category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 237 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Model data suggest the upper ridge will get suppressed to the south
by the middle of the week as the northern end of the Rockies trough
shears out across the Great Lakes. An associated weakening cold
front is expected to pass through the area around Wednesday.

Forcing in the vicinity of the front looks quite weak, but enough
lift may be present to keep a small chance PoP in the forecast for
Wednesday as the front moves through. Will continue to keep the rest
of the short term dry.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance is probably too cool. Will raise the guidance about 2-5
degrees each period.

&&


.LONG TERM /Thursday Night Through Monday/...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

An upper trough will move through the area Friday bringing another
cold front with it. Moisture is limited though, so the blend`s dry
forecast looks reasonable.

High pressure then builds in and will keep the weekend dry.

Some models differ on whether a system will bring any rain on
Monday. Most models are dry, so will lower the blend`s PoPs into the
slight chance category for now. Confidence is low here.

Temperatures will be seasonable through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 25/18Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 110 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

VFR conditions expected across central Indiana through the early
morning on Tuesday. Brief MVFR visibilities possible from 10 to
13Z with best chances at BMG. Skies will remain mostly clear with
diurnal cu dissipating after sunset and winds will remain less
than 5 kts through the period as high pressure continues across
the state.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...White/JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...White


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