Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 021820
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST...BUT A
COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   A CLOSED AND DEEPENING UPPER LOW
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO INDIANA WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH VERY COOL
TEMPERATURES AROUND WEDNESDAY.  THIS UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE ON TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOW STRATUS SOCKED IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS WEAK COLD
ADVECTION SETS IN. HAVE SEEN A FEW SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS SPECKLED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. 14Z TEMPS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. STRATUS LIKELY GOING NOWHERE FAST TODAY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH AN
INVERSION. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS RISE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CURRENT
LEVELS BUT THE INVERSION NEVER REALLY GOES AWAY. TRAILING UPPER
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BRING ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON.

BASED ON CURRENT READING AND LOW LEVEL THERMALS...LOWERED HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS READINGS. EXPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 TO STAY IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING
ALOFT LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.

MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MOVE IT SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALOFT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND FOR LOWS AND
NEAR A MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
TUESDAY AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM DRY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS BELIEVE NORTHERN SITES WILL REMAIN MVFR WHILE SOUTHERN SITES
GO JUST INTO VFR CATEGORY FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES DURING THE
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AT ANY SITE TODAY...BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF.  WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR KIND/KBMG EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WINDS MAY BECOME WESTERLY AT TIMES EARLY ON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.