Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 300820
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
420 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.UPDATE...

The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

A broad area of low pressure remains in place across the area.
This will again lead to scattered thunderstorm development across
the region today. High pressure will begin to nudge into the area
late tonight into Sunday, which will lower thunderstorm chances a
bit.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Another day much like the last several is expected across the area
today, with scattered thunderstorm development occurring
particularly in the afternoon near peak heating. Have trended
grids this way. Hydro concerns will again be the main threat, as
storms have been highly precipitation efficient in recent days and
fairly slow moving.

Consensus temperatures appeared slightly too cool based on
persistence and low level thermal progs. Bumped them up a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Models depict weak high pressure nosing into the area late tonight
through the remainder of the weekend, which will significantly
lower but perhaps not completely eliminate thunderstorm chances
from central Indiana. Will carry slight chances across the east
Sunday and across the southwest Monday and west Monday night per
model consensus.

Consensus temperatures again appeared a bit too cool on maxes per
low level thermal progs. Min temps were reasonable and required
only minor adjustments.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through next Friday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Operational models and ensembles in decent agreement that upper
waves will drop southeast over the area Tuesday into Wednesday as a
warm front gradually lifts northeast over the Wabash Valley and the
rest of central Indiana late Wednesday and Wednesday night. These
features will interact with a warm and unstable airmass and allow
for scattered thunderstorms with the best chances Tuesday night.
After that, the upper dome of high pressure over the middle of the
nation will build northeast over the Ohio Valley and lower Great
Lakes and result in warmer temperatures and only small thunderstorm
chances Wednesday night through Thursday night. Finally, an upper
Canadian low will force a cold front to drop southeast over the area
early next weekend. This will bring another decent shot of
thunderstorms in starting Friday. Regional blend looks to have a
good handle on temperature trends as well as pops. Could see 90
degrees again in the south by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 30/0900Z IND TAF Update/...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Delayed MVFR fog and ceilings until 11z.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

An area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley once again will combine
with moist conditions overnight to produce MVFR conditions towards
dawn. Currently, all sites are VFR, but with generally light winds
and dew points in the upper 60s to around 70s looks like there will
be some fog at many of the sites.

Fog will dissipate 12Z-13Z across many areas and with the low
pressure still present, a chance for scattered TS will be around
after 17Z into the early evening hours.  Models are indicating a bit
of a dry slot from KHUF - KBMG towars later afternoon, so TS chance
may diminish before evening in these areas.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DWM/MK


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