Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 160709
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
309 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

0200Z UPDATE...REALLY ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160600Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT
LIKELY FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

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