Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271801
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
201 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AMID A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MORE OF THE SAME IN OUR DAY TODAY
WEATHER...HOT AND MUGGY DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WARM AND SULTRY NIGHTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE HEAT AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

WILL BE TRIMMING POPS BACK IN NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY STILL OVER AREA AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS
STILL SETS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS BAND SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN THREAT BEHIND IS NIL.  MAIN CONVECTIVE
PRECIP HAS BEEN FOCUSING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN OHIO THUS CLOUD
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LESS A THREAT FOR RAIN
CHANCES BEHIND TROUGH BUT STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION GIVEN
INCREASING INSTABILITY.

TEMPS STILL ON A TRACK SIMILAR TO OR A DEGREE BEHIND YESTERDAY.
STILL FEEL NEAR 90 POSSIBLE AT INDY BUT ODDS STARTING TO FAVOR IT
LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /UPDATE FOR TONIGHT PORTION/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALL MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT...WILL BE TRIMMING
POPS TO FEWER COUNTIES AND ENDING THREAT EARLIER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGE TO TONIGHT AT THIS MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY NIGHT...

ON THURSDAY EVENING THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA...RIDING THE RIDGE. WILL
AGAIN NEED TO CONTINUE POPS INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WAVE PASSES AS THE
VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF. THUS EVEN AFTER
ALL THAT EXPLANATION...WE ARE STILL AT THE SAME RESULT...POPS
DURING THE EVENING ON THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
INDIANA...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND WILL ALSO TREND HIGHS AT OR

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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