Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 200759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
359 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

High pressure will continue to provide dry weather through the
first part of the weekend. An approaching cold front will move
through the area late in the weekend, followed by an upper trough
early next week, which will provide chances for showers,
particularly with frontal passage Sunday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures in the wake of the front will turn sharply cooler
next week, with highs likely only making the 50s


.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Another quiet and warm day is on tap for central Indiana.
Convective temperatures will be unreachable, leaving only the
prospect of a passing cirrus cloud for sky cover.

Temperatures will again rise well into the 70s across the area,
and consensus numbers were generally in the ballpark with minor
upward tweaks given recent tendency for blend to be on the cool


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Quiet weather will continue into Saturday evening. Broad southwest
flow will develop over the area followed by the approach of the
front late Saturday night, and will introduce precip chances then.
Max chances will be with frontal passage, currently expected
Sunday afternoon and evening. While a rumble of thunder cannot be
entirely ruled out, at the moment feel chances are too low to
merit a mention, although this will require monitoring in
subsequent model runs. Although front will be relatively slow
moving, blended guidance QPFs are not particularly high, likely
owing to the development of a cutoff low to our south which would
sap a significant proportion of moisture return. Area has been
fairly dry in recent weeks and can likely tolerate significant
rainfall without widespread hydrologic issues.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout, although
did increase the diurnal range prior to the introduction of precip
chances per recent trends.


.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

An active pattern will continue through the extended period as a
low pressure system over the Deep South eventually merges with a
broad upper low over the Great Lakes Region. The result will be
rain chances for much of the period from Monday through Wednesday.
There will be a brief dry period though from Wednesday evening
through Thursday evening as high pressure strengthens over the
region. This inactive period will be short-lived though as yet
another system traverses Ontario late in the period. Meanwhile,
temperatures will quickly fall below normal by Tuesday with highs
only topping off in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s/low 40s
through mid-week. Temperatures will rebound a bit on Thursday, but
will quickly turn cold again late in the extended period.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 20/09Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

No changes required. Previous discussion follows.

Issued at 1130 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period.

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will remain across
the Ohio Valley through Friday night...maintaining dry weather and
mainly clear skies for central Indiana. Winds will be predominantly
from the south through the period...peaking at 5-10kts during the
afternoon. May see very brief restrictions develop from fog towards
daybreak Friday...but confidence in any impacts at the terminals are
too low to include in the forecast at this time.





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