Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251641
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1241 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A cold front will track across Central Indiana today, bringing yet
another threat for severe weather to the area, mainly the northern
half. Activity will taper off late this evening though, and dry
conditions will prevail through the night and across most of the
area tomorrow. Convective activity will re-initiate from the
west/southwest again though by Friday night as a warm front in
association with the next surface frontal system pushes into
Central Indiana. This frontal system will keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast into next week when it stalls near
the Ohio River.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Updated the weather story and hazardous weather outlook as all but
our extreme southeastern counties are now included in the SPC Day1
Severe Weather Outlook. In addition, the slight risk was downgraded
marginal over Randolph county. Main severe threat will be damaging
winds and run through this evening.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The main focus of the near term period will be severe threat once
again as a cold front tracks across the forecast area.

Limited forcing in the upper levels will inhibit convective
development, so most activity will have to be diurnally driven and
triggered by the cold front passage. Weak enhancement from the 850
mb jet will provide some additional support across the northern
counties though ahead of the aforementioned front. This supports
the Marginal Risk currently in effect for the northern half of
Central Indiana.

Highs will top off in the upper 80s/low 90s with dewpoints in the
low to mid 70s, providing an unstable environment for cold front
to work with. So, any available shear that is present could
quickly spin up weak circulations in the risk area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms into the
evening hours closest to cold front. All activity will taper off
early in the night though, and dry conditions will prevail
overnight.

Friday, most of the forecast area can expect dry conditions, but
there is a slight chance that some showers and thunderstorms could
sneak into the extreme southwestern counties as a warm front
approaches from the Missouri Valley. This front will create a warm
sector for showers and thunderstorms to periodically form in
through the end of the short term period as high temperatures soar
into the upper 80s/low 90s on Friday and Saturday with dewpoints
ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
A strong upper ridge along the middle atlantic coast will weaken
slightly during the long term...although heights will remain high.
A weak frontal system depicted by models will sink south across
Indiana Monday as weak high pressure builds into the great lakes.

Airmass will be quite warm and humid early on...and a little less so
after the front moves through.  The GFS seems overly wet after
Monday given there will be little forcing.  Leaned more towards the
drier GEMNH and European models.  Went with a chance of
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday and no more than a slight chance of
day time storms after the front moves through.

Temperatures will be warmer than normal with daytime highs in the
upper 80s and approaching 90 some areas Sunday...and near normal by
middle of next week with highs in the lower to middle 80s.  Lows
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday cooling to the middle
to upper 60s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 25/18Z TAFs/...
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016

VFR conditions likely through this evening. MVFR fog likely to
develop overnight mainly at the outlying sites.

MVFR cloud cover is present in some spots, particularly northwest of
the sites, but bases should rise as mixing increases. Will keep
conditions VFR through the day and evening.

Latest near term guidance indicates thunderstorm potential may be
limited to HUF/LAF, and will carry VCTS here for a few hours this
evening.

Fog appears likely at mainly the outlying sites tonight, and will
take all down to 3SM. Some brief IFR cannot be ruled out but is far
too uncertain for inclusion at this point.

Winds will generally be around 10kt or less through the period,
particularly tonight when they should be light to calm.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/MK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...NIELD


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