Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 011833
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY RESULTING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ON TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY
AND THEN MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.  THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS.  MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND THE EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR
REGION LATER TONIGHT.

ONE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AFTER
SUNSET AS IT HAS BEEN QUITE DIURNAL LAST FEW DAYS.  BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS KEEP SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
OUR REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS UP. IT MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE...BUT NERVELESS WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS
INTO LATE TONIGHT PER MODELS. IN OTHER AREAS SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.
THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT AT THE SAME
TIME THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ON EAST INTO OHIO.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS
TONIGHT.  WILL KEEP NORTHEAST AREAS AT OR ABOVE 60 WITH MORE CLOUDS
THERE LATER TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY PREFER THE COOLER MET TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS AND WENT WITH A MOS BLEND IN THE EAST.  THE MET HAS 74
FOR A HIGH AT MUNCIE...WHILE THE MAV IS 82.  MORE CLOUDS IN THE EAST
COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN THERE A LITTLE MORE...BUT 74 SEEMS A
BIT TOO COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END SATURDAY EVENING...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY ALL
AREAS REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE STILL FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH FOR US TO
REMAIN DRY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AS
AIR MASS BECOMES A LITTLE DRIER AND HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE.  850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MODELS
KEEP A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION.  OVERALL A MOS BLEND
BLEND ON TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

AFTER A DRY SPELL ENSEMBLES HINTING AT CENTRAL INDIANA POSSIBLY
RETURNING TO A WETTER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL UPPER WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THIS FEATURE THAT COULD PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY AND TIMING TO
THIS LATEST SOLUTION SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW...AND THEREFORE LEFT POPS
AT LOW END CHANCE MOST TIMES. MODELS HINTING AT A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT TIMING DIFFERS
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE. ALLBLEND IS CARRYING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES LEADING
UP TO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AROUND THE NORMAL RANGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LOW TO MID 80S HIGHS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

1710Z UPDATE...ADDING A FEW MORE VCSH TO NRN TAF SITES SUCH AS
KHUF AND KIND BASED ON RECENT LIGHT POP UP ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH IN TIMING/LOCATION TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION EXCEPT VCSH AT
KLAF WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE BEST SHORTWAVE FORCING. AND
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC NOT SHOWING MUCH OF ANY DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM
AS OF THIS HOUR.

SHALLOW MVFR GROUND FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN OCCUR AT MAINLY THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS KHUF/LAF/BMG...WITH PERHAPS SOME 6SM IN BR/HZ
AT KIND BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 9-12Z SAT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.