Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290804
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THE BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COLD BY THE MID WEEK...BUT WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
AFTER NEW YEARS AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN GOOD CHANCES OF MIXED PRECIPITATION BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

SATELLITE INDICATED LOW CLOUDS WERE STILL ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA...WHILE AREAS FARTHER NORTH HAD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  WITH A
DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECT EVEN THE FAR SOUTH TO BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY.   EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MIDDLE
30S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TO ALMOST 40 FAR SOUTH.  THIS MATCHES
WELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN SUNSHINE UPSTREAM YESTERDAY AND ALSO WITH
A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

A FEW AREAS COULD SEE PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND SUNRISE.  HOWEVER I
HAVE NOT SEEN ANY INDICATION SO FAR THAT IT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO ADD TO FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOUTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL TUESDAY.  RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE
NORTH TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS. OTHERWISE A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES SEEMS REASONABLE ELSEWHERE.  MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

MODELS INDICATE INCREASING COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ADDED
MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TUESDAY MORNING AS
MODELS INDICATE A PERIOD WHERE THERE MAY BE A FETCH OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.  OTHERWISE...COLDER AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH NEW YEARS EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS TUESDAY AND THEN MOSTLY CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY
AS AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER.

MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM -8 TO -11 CELSIUS TUESDAY
AND -10 TO -14 CELSIUS WEDNESDAY.   THIS CORRELATES WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S TUESDAY AND FROM AROUND 20 NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.   LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA DURING MAINLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXACT TIMING DEPENDS ON THE MODEL. THE EURO MOVES THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY EVENING. THEN THE EURO DRYS OUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STILL HAVE POPS REMAINING. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION A GOOD BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...SO DID NOT NEED TO MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THEN LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT THAT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD MATCH NICELY.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS STILL LOW UNTIL THE EXACT TRACK BECOMES
SOLIDIFIED...BUT IT/S LOOKING LIKE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN/SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE REMAINING
TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1208 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

KLAF EXPERIENCING MVFR FOG AT MOMENT. WITH CLEAR SKY AND NEAR CALM
WIND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT OTHER SITES TOO SO WILL
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE USUAL MORE FOG PRONE SITES OF KHUF AND
KBMG.

ONCE MVFR FOG THREAT DISAPPEARS BY 1400Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH PERIODS OF CIRRUS CLOUD.

WIND TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...TUCEK

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