Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 220828

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
328 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

Low pressure will strengthen over the Plains this evening and push
northeast into the Great Lakes through early week, bringing
showers and at times drizzle, with a slight chance for a rumble of
thunder or two late tonight into Monday. Shower chances will
continue into Tuesday, with perhaps a few snowflakes late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. The rest of the work week will be dry
as high pressure pushes across the region. The next chance for
precipitation will come next week as a frontal system moves out of
the north central Plains.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

Warm advection will continue tonight ahead of the strengthening
low pressure system over the south central Plains. As such, expect
temperatures to remain mostly steady. A few showers may develop,
but mainly expect drizzle especially early. Precip chances will
increase lately especially northwest, and SREF probabilities
indicate outside potential for a rumble of thunder there as well.
Will carry a slight chance.

Patchy fog will likely remain through the evening but visibilities
should improve a bit as winds pick up a bit later tonight.


.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

Categorical pops will be necessary from west to east tomorrow as
the front pushes through the area. Will also carry a slight chance
of thunder as well.

May see a bit of a dry slot lull early Monday night before the
upper low moves in and showers increase again. Most of the
precipitation will likely be liquid, although cannot rule out some
snowflakes late Monday night into Tuesday, especially north. No
significant accumulation is expected.

The remainder of the short term will be dry as high pressure
builds into the area.

Consensus temperatures appeared generally in the ballpark and
required few tweaks.


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...

Issued at 310 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

Both the ECMWF and GFS models have northwest flow over the area
as mid/upper level trough is moving off the east coast, and the
next mid/upper level trough is over the Intermountain region.
Between them is a fairly high amplitude ridge that will have high
pressure underneath it that will extend from the Upper Ohio Valley
southward through the central Gulf Coast states. This will result
in fairly nice weather for the area Thursday and Friday with
temperatures above normal with 40s on Thursday and 50s on Friday
for highs and lows in the low 30s Friday morning and lower 40s
Saturday morning.

Models slightly differ with speed of somewhat broad mid/upper
trough coming into the Plains Friday into the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys Saturday. Superblend brings light-moderate rain showers
into the area for Friday night/Saturday ahead of the associated
cold front. Then as the cold front moves off to the east, and
colder air moves in, a mixture of snow/rain showers changing into
strictly brief snow showers impact the region from northwest to
southeast overnight Saturday into Sunday. Given that the ECMWF is
slower than the GFS, timing of this changeover is in question for
Sunday. Temperatures start off above normal in the 50s Saturday
then fall into more normal range in the low/mid 30s from Saturday
night into Sunday.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 22/06Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1147 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

LIFR conditions will persist into tonight with some improvement
to IFR and MVFR around daybreak as low pressure tracks through the
Central Plains. MVFR will become the prevailing flight category
by mid morning though with possible VFR very late in the TAF
period. Winds will generally be southerly and start out at 5 to 10
kts, increasing to 12 to 14 kts sustained with gusts to 25 kts.




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