Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 281638

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1238 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Another dry day ahead with warmer temperatures but still
relatively low humidity. By Thursday though moisture increases and
will see chances for thunderstorms overspread the area and stick
around until midday Saturday. Some storms Thursday and Friday
could be strong to severe. Rain will move out on Saturday but then
chances will return for Monday and onward with more low pressure
systems moving through the area.


.NEAR TERM /This Afternoon/...

Issued at 1230 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Given thicker cirrus from storms NW of here, have lowered max
temperatures near Lafayette as they have been slower to warm as a
result of cloud cover. Do expect brighter sun there before
afternoons end so 80s will still be obtainable there.

Lightning continues to diminish in Illinois storms as they track
ENE. Radar shows tail end of storms still headed toward NW
Indiana north of our area so dry forecast still holds today.

Wind gustiness has mixed down and overspread central Indiana and
will continue to early evening.

Dewpoints have reached mid 50s. Illinois dewpoints have climbed
into 60s...and these will spread to our western counties this


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...

Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Best forcing has trended further north for tonight through Thursday
with this set of model runs. Think the best threat for severe
will be north of the forecast area for that timeframe. Low level
jet and upper level jet look like potential for severe is now
better for Friday afternoon/evening ahead of the cold frontal
passage, with both jets pointing toward the area in some manner
during that time, although the GFS has better potential coupling
of the jets than the NAM at this time. Despite this appearance,
instability is better Thursday in the GFS, and bulk shear is as
well. Instability looks impressive both days in the NAM but bulk
shear is better Friday afternoon in the NAM. Looking at the upper
wave and surface fronts, think Friday/Friday night is the better
bet and thus will keep the higher PoPs going then. Still looks
like chances for thunderstorms in the northwest and then north
late Wednesday night into Thursday, though, but dry in the south.

PoPs will increase through the day on Friday as a cold front
approaches. The cold front should move through Friday night, and
will see likely rain and thunderstorms across the area then.

Temperatures Thursday should reach into the middle to upper 80s
under southwest flow and mostly sunny conditions. Friday will be a
bit cooler with more cloud cover expected, but still in the 80s.


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Showers should end by midday Saturday as a weak cold front moves to
near the Ohio river.  This front will remain stalled across extreme
southern Indiana rest of the weekend and then drift a little to the
north by Monday as low pressure moves into the central plains.

Mostly dry weather will be the rule rest of the weekend...although
some models indicate low chance POPS over southeast Indiana Sunday
afternoon with a very weak upper disturbance.  But Confidence of
this is low.

It appears better chances of showers and a  few storms will return
after the weekend as low pressure over plains moves our way.  Models
indicate a very moist airmass later Monday and Tuesday with an
increasing southerly flow ahead of next system.

High temperatures will be near normal and lows near to slightly
above normal.  This will result in highs in the 80s and lows in the
middle to upper 60s.  Generally stayed close to a Superblend MEX
blend on temperatures most periods.


.AVIATION /Update for TAFs/...

Issued at 1034 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

No significant changes made. VFR to continue.

Cirrus from thunderstorms over northern Illinois has overspread
TAF sites. Storms are tracking northeast towards Chicago and
points north.

Winds currently from SSE approaching 10 knots and will begin
gusting to 20 knots on occasion from 1600z-2200z.




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