Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 300601
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
201 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.  HOWEVER AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OUR WAY.  THE FIRST ONE WILL BE
TOMORROW AND WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.
ANOTHER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
FLATTEN OUT SOME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. CURRENT
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S...AND ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 60S
OVERNIGHT.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER AN APPROACHING
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE MIDDLE 60S FAR SOUTH.  WENT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS TRACK AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TUESDAY.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH.  WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE TUESDAY.  SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL STUCK CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
DRIER ACROSS OUR NORTH BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.

UNDERCUT MOS HIGHS A LITTLE NORTHERN HALF TUESDAY AND SOUTHERN HALF
WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.  OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S NEAR VINCENNES.  HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

REALLY NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WET PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. A VERY TROUGHY PATTERN WILL SET UP FROM CANADA AND REACH
DOWN TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AND ONCE AGAIN...A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND ALLOW
THIS ON/OFF RAINY AND STORMY PATTERN TO PERSIST. NO REAL SOAKING
RAINS DUE TO A LACK OF GULF MOISTURE AND GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF
COOLER AIR...CONTINUE TO TREND TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO CAPTURE THIS PATTERN VERY WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SMALL BRIEF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS AND JUST NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER..CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT BRIEFLY AT IND OR BMG IF OR SHOWER CAN BE RELIABLY
PEGGED AT ISSUANCE TIME.

OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER...PER THE HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH...AS THE CONVECTION PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME. WILL GO WITH A TWO HOUR TEMPO GROUP SHOWER GROUP TO
CAPTURE THAT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THOUGH AS INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOW AT THAT TIME.

FINALLY...RE-DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF LAF AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
AND NEAR IND AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH PROB30 TEMPO THUNDER
GROUPS AFTER 16Z TO HANDLE THAT.

LAF ALREADY SAW IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...AND
WITH MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS...MOS AND SREF SUGGESTING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDITIONS...WILL GO WITH AT LEAST LOW END MVFR OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...KOCH

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