Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231738
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late tonight as high
pressure moves farther east and Gulf moisture is drawn up ahead of
the next cold front. Convective activity will increase on
Wednesday night and Thursday as that cold front traverses Central
Indiana. After that, high pressure will re-establish itself over
the Upper Midwest, resulting in mostly dry conditions for Friday
and Saturday. Further out, an upper trough will push into the
Upper Midwest, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms
to Central Indiana late in the weekend/early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 957 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Current Visible Satellite is depicting clear skies across the
majority of Central Indiana with a line of scattered clouds from
Indianapolis to Muncie. A large area of high pressure is currently
centered over Pennsylvania and this will dominate the weather today,
resulting in dry conditions and mostly sunny skies.

Temps today will top off in the low to mid 80s, stuck close to a
model blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The main focus of the short term period is shower and thunderstorm
activity with an approaching cold front.

Dry conditions will prevail into Tuesday night, but time cross
sections indicate a saturated air column and strengthening
isentropic lift after Wed 09Z ahead of approaching cold front.
Best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be from Wednesday
night through Thursday with forcing from the front. Pops will
decrease significantly though by Thursday night behind
aforementioned front.

A weak warming trend will prevail through the period with highs in
the low 80s early on, increasing to mid to upper 80s by Wednesday
and Thursday. Meanwhile, overnight lows will be in the 60s and low
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Tuesday)...

Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The blended forecast from the Regional initialization can be used
with moderate to high confidence.

The deterministic fields from various models correspond well.
However they all project a complex situation. We can be confident
about what to expect overall,but it`s too early to be sure of
details.

Tempertures from today`s forecast could be off by 3 degrees or so.
There will be a chance of rain almost daily in this package. Later
this week it should be possible to distinguish dry or wet 12 hour
intervals in the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 231800Z TAFs)...

Issued at 1242 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Scattered fair weather cumulus under high pressure are expected
this afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate tonight as a weak
warm front develops over the region. After 06z there should be
widespread ceilings of 35 hundred feet with areas of mvfr ceilings
and visibilities in rain and mist. Conditions will tend to be
worse over the western sites.

Winds should remain mostly south less than 10 knots.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK



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