Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 070723
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
323 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A WET COUPLE OF DAYS ARE IN STORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK. A COLD FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL PUSH EAST AND
STALL OVER INDIANA...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MEANWHILE A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PUSH ACROSS INDIANA ALONG THE FRONT. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT IN TO FRIDAY...PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND BRING DRIER BUT WARM AND HUMID WEATHER BACK TO INDIANA TO
START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM NE ILLINOIS TO NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. RADAR
SHOW DECAYING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...SLOWLY PUSHING
EAST. IR IMAGERY SHOWS WARMING TOPS. WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW
WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE AT IN THE
AREA BY MID MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION BY
18Z...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES. EVEN SOME CAPE
AVAILABLE AS CONVECTIVE ARE ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S. EXCELLENT
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE AS SEEN BY THE LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTORS. THUS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND GOOD FORCING...CANNOT
FIND ANY REASON NOT TO HAVE POPS AT 90 OR HIGHER. WILL TRY TO
TREND HIGHEST POPS TO THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN THE
BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES EAST...IT WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED
AS IT STALLS ACROSS INDIANA. THUS IT WILL BECOME THE FOCAL AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY REMAIN RELATIVELY
SATURATED...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.80 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIME HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE. THUS WE
WILL JUST NEED TO LOOK FOR A FORCING MECHANISM.

FIRST OFF WE HAVE DAYTIME HEATING AVAILABLE FOR US. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY ARE VERY ATTAINABLE...IN THE 70S ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. THUS ANY HEATING SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. ALOFT THE GFS DEPICTS A SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH
INDIANA OVER THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NAM IS SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT WITH ORIENTATION OF THE SHORT WAVE AND THE
TIMING...BUT NONETHELESS...FORCING APPEARS HEADED OUR WAY THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. THUS OUR EQUATION IS NOW

MOISTURE + FORCING = HIGH RAIN CHANCES.

WILL TREND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS
VALUES...TRENDING HIGHEST POPS DURING THE PERIODS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS SHOW BEST FORCING
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA AT THAT TIME.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED WILL TREND LOW WARMER
THAN MAVMOS AND TREND HIGHS COOLER.

BEST FORCING APPEARS TO DEPART ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND SHORT WAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT AT THAT TIME AND PRECIPITABLE WATER MANAGES TO
FALL TO LESS THAN 1.50 INCHES. WILL TREND POPS LOWER AT THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA. FIRST...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
WILL BE A SOURCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETROGRADES WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING
THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BECOMING STRONGER LATE IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. LATEST
REGIONAL SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS
FEATURE BECAUSE POPS INCREASE BACK INTO THE HIGH CHANCE LEVELS ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND SINCE CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
BE ON SOUTHERN SIDE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1227 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING DURING
TUESDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT.
HOWEVER...BARRING MORE EXTENSIVE THUNDER COVERAGE HAVE CHOSEN TO GO
WITH SHOWERS FOR NOW AND A VICINITY THUNDER MENTION.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10KT OR BELOW...SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE THE
FRONT AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD

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