Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 222351

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
651 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 325 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

Low pressure will move into the Great Lakes tonight, bringing
additional chances for showers to the area into Tuesday. Aside
from a chance of flurries with an upper level wave on Wednesday,
dry weather will then dominate through the remainder of the work
week. Another frontal system will bring precipitation chances back
to the area for the weekend.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight and Tuesday/...
Issued at 325 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

After widespread rain earlier along a prefrontal trough, the area
is mostly dry at this point. However, the main cold front will
move into the area tonight along with the upper wave, and showers
will likely redevelop, especially late. A few snowflakes cannot be
ruled out late tonight into Tuesday, mainly north, but no
accumulation is expected.

Expect temperatures somewhat steady early then dropping more
quickly late as the front moves in. Temperatures tomorrow will
climb little if at all.


.SHORT TERM /Tuesday Night through Thursday/...
Issued at 325 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

The short term looks to be dry as surface high pressure moves into
the Tennessee Valley to shut down the majority of precipitation.
However, an upper level wave moving through the area Wednesday may
spark some flurries, perhaps with sprinkles south. The main
impact will be to increase cloud cover, however.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout with only
minor tweaks. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals early,
climbing above normal again by Thursday.


.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Issued at 225 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

ECMWF suggests strong ridging aloft and surface high pressure
across the area on THursday night and Friday which should lead to
dry weather is seasonable temperatures. Models suggest the ridge
aloft slides east by Saturday and a return flow of warmer and more
moist air begins to arrive across Indiana. Meanwhile the ECMWF
suggests a deep trough developing in the central plains with ample
dynamics, This feature looks to pass across Central Indiana
Saturday through Sunday Night along with an associated cold front.
This will be the best chance for precipitation within the long
term part of the forecast and pops inserted by forecast build
appear reasonable.

ECMWF then suggests high pressure builds across the area on
Monday...but the patter aloft prevents much in the way of an
arctic intrusion. Thus dry and seasonal weather will be expected
again on Monday.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/00Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 639 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

Strong southwest winds will linger into tonight with sustained
speeds of 12 to 14 kts and gusts up to 22 kts. Meanwhile,
conditions will generally be at VFR levels for now. However,
wraparound moisture is approaching on the back side of a low
pressure system spinning over Illinois. As rain chances increase
tonight, ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR (or worse) levels by
Tue 08Z. They will then hover around the MVFR level through the
end of the TAF period.





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