Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 230646

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
246 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.


Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A cold front is forecast to cross Indiana today, causing widespread
showers and thunderstorms.  High pressure will move in from the
northwest overnight. The high should control Hoosier weather into
Sunday, when another cold front is going to pass.

A new high pressure system is predicted to arrive from the west
Monday, and be moving off the east of our state by Thursday.


.NEAR TERM (Today and tonight)...

Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The main issue is the threat of heavy rain.

The models have been consistent about rain spreading over the entire
CWA, but decreasing rapidly toward evening and ending by midnight.
By morning we should be clear.

The models have also been consistent with their QPF, with storm
totals of over 2 inches in the south, but much lower to the

The earlier forecast, including the Flash Flood Watch, doesn`t need
major changes.  The biggest element of uncertainty is whether it
will be possible cancel parts of the watch as the day goes on. Any
cancellations will be in the northern and western parts of the
current watch area.

Guidance temperatures are close and look reasonable considering
current observations and that there won`t much sun today.


.SHORT TERM (Saturday through Sunday night)...

Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The forecast problem is POPs Saturday night and Sunday.

There is good agreement Saturday should be dry. Some models
introduce a slight chance of rain Saturday night, but the
consensus does not. There isn`t an obvious mechanism to fire
storms then that won`t also be acting earlier when heating would
favor convection. The dry consensus will be used.

A low chance is in order for the north late Sunday when a
secondary front will be present.

With the ground wet from today`s rain, but drier air arriving,
we`ll see partly cloudy days and mostly clear nights from cumulus.

With the models similar about temperatures, the consensus
forecast should be accurate to within about 2 degrees. Late in
the weekend, it will feel more like mid May than late June.


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Models continue to trend toward a drier forecast for the extended
period. The only chances for a few showers and thunderstorms will be
on Sunday and Monday afternoons, mainly over the northern counties,
as a few upper waves move through the area. Otherwise, expect dry
conditions throughout the extended period with a gradual warming
trend. Highs will start out in the 70s on Sunday and Monday,
eventually topping off in the low to mid 80s by Wednesday.
Meanwhile, overnight lows will increase from the mid 50s on Sunday
night to low/mid 60s by Wednesday night.


.AVIATION (Discussion for 20600Z TAFs)...

Issued at 1246 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Shower and thunderstorm activity expected to increase in the
vicinity of the terminals towards/after sunrise Friday as a
southwesterly low level jet of 35-40 kts interacts with a frontal
system dropping south through the Great Lakes. IFR visibility
restrictions probable in the heavier precipitation areas.

IFR ceilings 006-009 AGL should continue to spread over the
terminals from south to north overnight under a warm and moist
advection pattern. These ceilings may tend to lift into an MVFR deck
towards midday Friday as the boundary layer heats up.

Surface winds 180-210 degrees at 7-11 kts overnight will gradually
veer around to 220-260 degrees towards midday Friday. Occasional
gusts 18-20 kts possible towards midday Friday as well.


Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
evening for INZ052>057-060>065-067>072.



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