Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 061411
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
911 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S. AND REMAIN THERE ON INTO NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE...A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL FINALLY TAKE PLACE AS THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S. MOVES EAST
AND OUR UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 A EST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL MOVE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY AND WARM ADVECTION ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME
LATER TODAY.  850 MB TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY -10 TO -12 DECREES WILL
WARM TO -2 TO -4 DEGREES CELSIUS LATE TODAY PER MODELS.  SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 20S LATER TODAY.  WENT CLOSE TO
A MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A
FEW DEGREES FROM LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER IOWA
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR AREA
LATER TODAY...WHILE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND A ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE EVEN MORE ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A VERY WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST OF THE PERIOD AS OUR LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE WEST SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND WEST AND LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS SHOULD KEEP GULF
AIR WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  HOWEVER SNOW MELT MAY CAUSE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER A
MOS BLEND GIVEN THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUN AND OUR AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MODERATE.  OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES ON LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BE MORE OR LESS ZONAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE
COLD OVER THE PAST MONTH.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL AND KEEP RAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 06/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 908 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE WITH
PERHAPS SPORADIC GUSTS NEAR 20KT. SINCE GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
COMMON...DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS.

SOME MODELS HINT AT MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS WARMER AIR
TRIES TO MOVE IN. DO NOT QUITE BELIEVE THAT AT THE MOMENT...SO ONLY
INCLUDED A SCT020 AT KLAF OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50/TDUD

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