Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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032
FXUS63 KIND 221932
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
232 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

The mild temperatures will continue today. The weather will become
unsettled once again as a strong system moves over the southern
states and Tennessee Valley before moving up the eastern seaboard
Monday night into Tuesday night. More seasonable conditions will
return late next week including a chance for snow showers by
Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 956 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

Clouds have once again overspread much of the forecast area this
morning with most of the fog for overnight diminishing. Seeing
radar echoes over western portions of the forecast area but
suspect most if not all of this is not reaching the ground with a
dry layer noted on soundings through about 10kft. Mild morning
with 1430Z temps generally in the 40s and lower 50s.

Main focus for the morning update is a substantial reduction in
pops for the rest of the day. Double barreled low pressure over
the deep South will track east through the day and should be
located over north Georgia by this evening. Much of the deeper
moisture associated with the system has been confined further to
the south with the closest rain showers over southern Kentucky
currently. Hi-res guidance keeps the bulk of these showers to our
south for the remainder of the day with the low set to track
further south than earlier model runs were suggesting. With deeper
forcing and moisture now largely staying south of the forecast
area...have knocked down pops extensively with little if any rain
expected for most of the rest of the day.

Despite the lower threat for rain...abundance of mid and high
level cloud cover will shroud the region today with little if any
sunshine expected. Still though will be another warm day for mid
January with highs rising into the upper 50s and lower 60s over
much of the area. Generally bumped highs up a degree or two for
the afternoon. The daily record high for Indy of 64 from 1964
appears safe although we are likely to get within a few degrees of
it.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 320 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

The unsettled weather will continue into the short term as the strong
southern storm system moves over the Tennessee Valley and
Appalachians tonight and Monday and up the eastern seaboard
thereafter. Models in good agreement that the showers will
gradually end from southwest to northeast Monday night as the
storm moves up the coast taking the moisture with it. Stuck with
regional blend regarding pops. Should see some breaks in the
clouds by late Tuesday.

Temperatures will not be as warm, but will still be well above normal
with highs in the mid 40s to around 50 and lows in the mid 30s to
lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...

Issued at 216 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

A broad upper trough will move from the central U.S. to the
eastern U.S. during the long term and stalling as it does so. With
the upper trough settling in over the eastern U.S., expect to see
temperatures back down to normal with access to Canadian air.
Cyclonic flow across the area combined with weak upper impulses
will bring small chances for on and off precipitation through the
period, but lack of any stronger forcing mechanism means
significant dry times are likely. Precip, should it occur, would
be in the form of rain early Wednesday night before changing over
to a rain snow mix, and then snow from Thursday night on, but
again, chances are low.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 221800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1149 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

VFR conditions expected into this evening with MVFR to IFR
ceilings developing overnight into Monday.

Predominantly mid and high level clouds over the region late this
morning...although clearing has developed across northern
portions of central Indiana. This has enabled a quick bump in near
surface warming and have seen isolated convection develop near
KLAF since 16Z in combination of a subtle convergence zone
present.

Likely to see additional isolated showers develop through the
course of the afternoon but the more widespread rainfall is
likely to remain south of all terminals through sunset. With the
possible exception of KLAF where sub-IFR conditions and fog are
hovering only about 15-20 miles NW of the terminal...expect VFR
conditions through the duration of the afternoon.

Model soundings do indicate the development of a stronger
inversion in the near surface layer tonight as northerly flow
increases over the region on the back side of the deep low
pressure over the southeast U S. Do anticipate ceilings falling to
around 1000ft or slightly lower overnight and into Monday morning
with isolated showers present. The northerly winds will increase
with gusts to 20-25kts developing predawn Monday and continuing
for most of the day.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...RYAN



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