Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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337
FXUS63 KIND 201823
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
123 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

A couple of cold fronts will bring chances for rain to mainly
northern parts of central Indiana on Tuesday as well as on Friday
night. Otherwise high pressure will provide dry conditions.
Temperatures will be up and down, varying from near normal to well
below normal at times.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Today/
Issued at 952 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Going forecast is right on track. Only some scattered cirrus showing
up on satellite for clouds, and wind gusts to 20 mph being reported
in a few locations already. No appreciable changes made. Previous
discussion follows...

Quiet weather is expected today with mainly high clouds passing
across the area at times. At the moment believe that the high clouds
will be thin enough for mostly sunny to sunny conditions, but will
have to reevaluate again after sunrise.

The pressure gradient will tighten up once again today with high
pressure to the south and developing low pressure in southern Canada.
Thus expect some gusty winds to around 30 mph, especially north.

Enough sunshine should then be around to work with warm advection
and allow temperatures to reach the model blend`s mid 40s to lower
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday night/
Issued at 233 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Dry conditions will continue tonight ahead of an approaching cold
front. Breezy conditions will continue north.

On Tuesday the cold front will move through the area. More models
are coming on board with some light showers in the afternoon with
the front. However, it still appears that moisture remains pretty
limited with just a narrow band of deeper moisture along the front.

Will keep the blend`s low PoPs Tuesday afternoon across roughly the
north half of the area, although confidence is low to medium due to
the limited moisture. Some low PoPs will linger in the far east
early Tuesday evening as the front exits.

More gusty winds can be expected with the front as some of stronger
winds aloft mix down. At the moment it looks like gusts around 30
mph are possible.

Wednesday and Wednesday night will be dry with high pressure
returning.

The blend`s temperatures look reasonable, with near normal
temperatures Tuesday followed by a return to below normal for
Wednesday behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
Issued at 123 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Models and ensembles in good agreement that a cold front will drop
southeast across central Indiana Friday night into Saturday morning.
Model 1000-500 millibar mean level rh progs and rh time sections
suggest there may be enough moisture around to justify small blend
pops north Friday night. Confidence in timing and location is not
great, but there is not enough evidence to make any changes.
Otherwise, high pressure will provide dry weather with near normal
to slightly above normal temperatures Friday and Saturday. A
reinforcing cold front will move through late Saturday and Saturday
night. This will bring a colder airmass back to central Indiana by
Sunday.

Blend temperatures look reasonable with highs in the upper 40s and
lower 50s Friday and Saturday but highs only in the upper 30s and
lower 40s Sunday. Confidence in temperature trends is good.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 201800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1139 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Wind gusts will be the only aviation concern through 18z Tuesday.
Winds will gust around 20 to 25 kts through the afternoon and into
the evening hours, but then could slacken overnight before picking
back up Tuesday afternoon. The direction should remain out of the
SSW throughout.

For cloud cover, off and on cirrus will be the rule today and
tonight, with some more mid clouds entering the area Tuesday
morning ahead of a front. Tuesday afternoon could see ceilings
start to drop as a cold front makes its way through the sites but
this will only show up in the extended portion of the KIND TAF
with this issuance. No visibility restrictions expected through
the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/CP
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP



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