Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 041035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
635 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF
FRONTS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MOVING SOUTHEAST. THESE MAY INTERACT
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS...BUT BELIEVE THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WHILE CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT A SHOWER ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA TODAY...FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ALL AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CLOUD GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MOST CLOUDS
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LEAST IN THE NORTHEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. SOME WEAK
FORCING ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LOW COVERAGE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOK TOO
LOW FOR ANY RAIN. WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON RAIN COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN SOME SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY LOW WENT POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. GOOD MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN WITH THE
SYSTEM. AT THE MOMENT...BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO LIKELY POPS SOUTHERN HALF OR SO
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS NORTH.

MODELS SHOW SOME FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA AS WELL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY.

THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT SO WENT LOW
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS FOLLOWING THE MODEL TREND
WELL...SO LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WERE MADE. THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER BRIEF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...ALSO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. AS FAR AS TEMPS...THEY WILL
GRADUALLY TREND BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR EXPECTED AT KLAF AND KIND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG FOR A FEW
HOURS AT KHUF AND KBMG WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY A FEW
DEGREES THERE AND SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING HIGH.

SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CU WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
9 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL AGAIN DROP TO
CALM AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP/TDUD


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