Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 010226
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUL 31 20144

A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE OUR
WAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT DEVELOPS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BUILDS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE
UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP TO NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FARTHER AHEAD IN THE LONG TERM A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES TONIGHT SUGGEST THAT TONIGHT/S LOWS
MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT DON/T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE DIURNAL TREND AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE ON TRACK
WITH WHAT WAS EXPECTED BY THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER.

WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. NO UPDATES PLANNED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SO FAR IT HAS BEEN PRETTY QUIET ACROSS OUR REGION AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS OUR
REGION.  SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. SOME MODELS
INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT.

THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AS CLOUDS WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATE. THIS HAS CAUSED MOS TEMPERATURES TO TREND A
LITTLE COOLER AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THIS FORECAST.

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT...BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING IT TO THE FORECAST AND ESPECIALLY WITH
NO AREAS SEEING ANY RAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO OUR
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE AN UPPER TROUGH TO
SHARPEN ACROSS OUR REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.   WENT A LITTLE ABOVE MOS POPS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALL AREAS SATURDAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SEEM TO UNDERPLAY THE CONVECTION A LITTLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN HALF SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...BECOMING
DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY ARE TODAY...THEN
ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER SATURDAY AND EVEN A BIT WARMER BY SUNDAY.
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEING ABOUT THE SAME TOMORROW WENT SLIGHTLY
BELOW COOLER MET TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.  ALSO TRIMMED TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE SOME AREAS AGAIN SATURDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND MOS MAY BE
TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

ENSEMBLES IN AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO BE REPLACED BY WEAK
RIDGE FOR THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED...AND THEN A FRONT WILL
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LEFT FORECAST
BASICALLY DRY UNTIL THE EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
BELIEVE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE HANDLED THIS WEATHER PATTERN WELL SO DID
NOT NEED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM INITIALIZATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AROUND THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MID HIGHS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LINGERING DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED AROUND 050 EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN REACH LATE
TONIGHT...SO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY. GROUND HAS HAD A
CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY...AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE
PROBABILITY OF IFR RESTRICTIONS SEEMS LOW AT THIS POINT. WILL GO
WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE
OF SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 011200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/JAS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JAS

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