Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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719
FXUS63 KIND 161756
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1256 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

A series of low pressure systems will bring rain chances to central
Indiana at times into the weekend. Temperatures will remain above
normal through the next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Only weak lift is expected this morning with a warm front well to
the south. However wouldn`t rule out an isolated shower or patchy
drizzle, so will go slight chance PoPs during much of the morning
across the forecast area. With temperatures expected to be near
freezing across the far northern forecast area at 12Z, will
including a brief mention of freezing rain early in the day.

Some of the hi-res short term models as well as the LAMP show some
lower visibilities in fog this morning. HRRR shows widespread 1/4
mile visibility moving in during the morning, but it`s overdoing the
extent of low visibility at the current hour. Will add patchy fog
mention for now and continue to watch.

The warm front will move close to the southern forecast area by 00Z.
Isentropic lift will increase, and 850mb winds will increase as
well, bringing in forcing and moisture. HRRR shows rain moving into
most of the area by 00Z, but this seems a bit fast.

Will increase PoPs through the afternoon, with about the western
half of the area seeing likely PoPs by 00Z, with chance PoPs
elsewhere.

Went closer to the MAV MOS for highs today, which looks more
reasonable than the warmer MET given expected arrival of warm front
and plenty of cloud cover. Daytime highs will occur late in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday night/
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Rain will overspread the area tonight with first the warm front
moving through during the evening and then a cold front moving into
the area late in the night. 850MB winds of 40kt and the approach of
an upper jet will aid in the forcing. Went categorical PoPs all
areas. There could be a brief lull after the warm front passes and
before forcing from the approaching cold front gets here.

Some instability will move into the area during the night, so
continued the mention of thunder.

Temperatures may dip a couple of degrees early in the night, then
they should rise through the remainder of the night.

The cold front will move through Tuesday morning, but the better
forcing will be east of the area. Kept the initialization`s chance
PoPs. Low PoPs will continue some areas into Tuesday night as an
upper trough moves through.

High pressure will then build in and provide dry weather.

The cold front will not have any strong push of cold air behind it,
so temperatures will continue to be above normal into Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday|/...

Issued at 144 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Active and warm weather pattern setting up for this week. ECMWF
suggests a strong southerly flow of air to continue to stream into
the Ohio Valley late this week. This southerly flow will continue
to keep cold...winter air at bay and provide temperatures well
above normal along with plentiful moisture. ECMWF suggests at
least two short waves will look to push through Indiana. The first
system looks to arrive on Thursday afternoon through Friday...and
thankfully this run superblend had gotten on board and added some
pops. Thus...confidence is growing.

Weak ridging appears aloft on Friday night and Saturday that
should lead to some dry hours...however another large system looks
to arrive in the area on SUnday and into Monday. Forecast
soundings at that time suggest attainable convective temperatures
and even a little CAPE...thus have added a Thunder mention
possible in the afternoon. Well above normal temperatures will
continue.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/1800Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1226 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Poor flying conditions are expected for duration of TAF period as
a warm front draws moisture into the area. IFR or worse will be
the prevailing flight categories for most of the TAF period with
just slight improvement toward the end when MVFR conditions return
tomorrow morning. Winds will generally be southeasterly, gradually
veering to the southwest tomorrow morning. Sustained speeds will
range between 5 to 11 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...TDUD



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