Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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682
FXUS63 KIND 041417
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY AND EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
INDIANA AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY ALONG WITH
A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
ON SATURDAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

ONE BAND OF RAIN IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA...BUT ANOTHER IS ROTATING SOUTH THROUGH THE THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. UPDATED HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. MEANWHILE
SHORT TERM MODELS STILL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON SO LEFT AFTERNOON POPS ALONE FOR NOW.

TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WEST. LEFT
TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR THE MOMENT BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THIS
AFTERNOON IF MORE SUN SNEAKS IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM WILL BE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH
AN UPPER LOW.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS
CORRELATES WELL WITH COLD FRONT PLACEMENT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THIS
CONVECTION TO START IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AFTER WED 09Z...SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY WED 12Z. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE
WED 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH LIKELY
POPS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THAT PERIOD.

DYNAMICS WILL START TO WANE BY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SO...WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. MODELS WERE IN
AGREEMENT FOR TEMPERATURES...SO STUCK CLOSE TO A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS /MAINLY OVER EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA/ TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY IN
SHORT TERM PERIOD...SO WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.
TOMORROW MORNING...UPPER LOW WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTHEAST...SO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE NECESSARY.
AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AND
THEN STALL ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  MODELS MOVE
THIS FRONT NORTH BACK INTO INDIANA BY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS DRY SUNDAY.  THE GFS AND GEMNH MODELS
KEEP ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AND SOUTH DRY THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE THE 00Z EURO
IS A QUICK OUTLIER IN SPREADING SHOWERS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.  I BELIEVE THE
EURO MIGHT BE TOO QUICK...BUT SINCE WE ALREADY HAVE POPS MOST AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WILL KEEP THEM IN FOR NOW.  ALL MODELS INDICATE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY...MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
SUNDAY AND 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MID 40S TO MID 50S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S MONDAY NIGHT.  IN MOST CASES STAYED
CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ALL TERMINALS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND RAIN
SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH. SECOND BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT KBMG AND KIND
FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH THE EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRONT IS THROUGH KLAF
AND WILL PASS BY THE OTHER TERMINALS BY 16Z. MVFR STRATOCU WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINALS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW RISE IN
CEILINGS BY LATE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALL
AFTERNOON.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MOST AREAS BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.   THEN MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
CENTRAL AND EAST.

A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS INDIANA
BY 18Z WITH SHOWERS AND LOWERING CEILINGS TO 1 TO 2 THOUSAND FEET.
WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVE BY WITH MOST
AREAS IMPROVING TO 3 TO 5 THOUSAND FOOT CEILINGS BY MID AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS MAY DROP TO A COUPLE OF
THOUSAND FEET OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY AND DECREASE 10 TO 12 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/50
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN



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