Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280735
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE THE STORMY PATTERN REASSERTS ITSELF WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
TO START THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA AND
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS FOR HIGHS 82-85.
AND GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AFTER THIS BRIEF DRY RESPITE DURING THE NEAR TERM...A RETURN TO
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THROUGH THAT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST A WET ONE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND THIS PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON GOOD MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS GENERALLY SIMILAR SO LEANED WITH A
BLEND. THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER DEW POINTS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL BLEND WILL BE USED.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH INTO MONDAY WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW. CRUCIAL
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH THE
GFS PLACES RIGHT OVER THE AREA BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS FARTHER
SOUTH. JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES.  UNTIL WE CAN BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT...WE
CANT BE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1235 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.  THUS...LOOKING
FOR CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION TO RETURN FRIDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...DWM

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