Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 160750

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
250 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 354 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

A cold front will exit the area tonight as low pressure moves
through the Great Lakes. This will bring an end to lingering
showers and drizzle by late afternoon or early evening. In the
wake of the front, high pressure will bring dry weather through at
least Friday morning before another frontal system impacts the
area late Friday afternoon into Saturday evening, with showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder. Another dry spell will follow with
cool conditions for the time of year.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 354 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Showers have exited the area, with only some drizzle remaining
ahead of the front, which is moving into the state at the moment.
Expect the front to make steady progress across the area and bring
an end to any lingering precipitation by 00Z, thus will carry no
measurable pops overnight.

Upped cloud cover from what was given by the blend, as forecast
soundings, particularly NAM, indicate the potential for some
trapped low level stratus to develop overnight. Extrapolation
suggests that the current wraparound cloud deck will at least move
across the northern portions of the area late tonight, and
adjustments take this into account better. Will have to monitor
how the clouds evolve this evening.

Consensus temperatures generally appeared reasonable, although
minor adjustments upward were made over northern and northeastern
areas, which will see the most cloud overnight.


.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
Issued at 354 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

High pressure will keep the area dry through Friday morning.
Another somewhat more substantial frontal system will move into
the area Friday afternoon into Saturday and bring another shot of
widespread showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, to the area.
Still cannot rule out a sporadic strong wind gust here or there,
but frontal timing is looking less favorable for any sort of
marginal severe threat, in spite of the favorable dynamics. This
will continue to merit monitoring however as there remains plenty
of time for model solutions to adjust as the week wears on.

Consensus temperatures generally appeared reasonable throughout
the period. Will see a warming trend ahead of the next front
before reinforcing cold air arrives during the long term period.


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...

Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Main pattern will remain west/northwestly aloft and resulting in
dry conditions until towards the end of the period. Several mid/
upper level troughs will skirt eastward off to the north of the
forecast area maninly over the Great Lakes.

High pressure will be over the southern Plains eastward across the
southeast states efficiently blocking any low level moisture
northward. As that high moves off the southern Atlantic coast, a
dry southwesterly flow out of the southern and central Plains
will warm the area to near 50 across the southern parts of the
area before the next cold front drops in Tuesday afternoon.

Looks like the next chance for precipitation will not be until
early Thursday morning (Thanksgiving) as a frontal system comes
into the area with the chance for snow flurries/light rain.
Confidence is low at this time being so late in the period and
will have to see how this develops over the next several days.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 160600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1100 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

The GFS LAMP is bullish on cu re-development overnight into Thursday
morning. The SREF is much more favorable. In addition to the
potential for more low clouds to re-develop, low level rh progs
combined with satellite trends from the stratocu over northern
Illinois and northwestern Indiana strongly suggest LAF and possibly
IND will see MVFR conditions through 09z or so. So, strong
confidence in MVFR conditions at LAF overnight and moderate
confidence in mostly VFR elsewhere. After 10z, the terminals should
be be mostly clear with just some afternoon cu in cyclonic flow, per
the cu development progs.

Winds will be southwest and west through the overnight 11 knots or
less and shift to northwest overnight into Thursday. LAF could see
some gusts to 20 knots as well through 10z.




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