Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231422
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING MORE
HUMID AND WARM AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IN ITS WAKE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW...BUT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TOMORROW NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL NY/CENTRAL PA. A WARM AND MORE MOIST SE SURFACE
FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WAS PRODUCING CONVECTION AND MID AND HIGH CLOUD
WERE STREAMING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THIS FEATURE AND WITH THE
ONGOING BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE ONLY A FEW CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOUD COVER...PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD
WORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING HIGHS LOOK ON THE MARK AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE ONGOING GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN ONSET TIME OF PRECIPITATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND...AND ARE NOW FOCUSING IN ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AFTER SUN 09Z...BUT THE BEST LIFT WILL
FALL DURING THE MON 12-18Z TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AFTER THAT...DYNAMICS ARE
WEAK AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...
WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. TRENDED
TOWARD THE MAV FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE IT WAS WARMER ON
SUNDAY WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...AND COOLER ON MONDAY WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES STILL IN AGREEMENT FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING
THE EXTENDED WITH ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DISTURBANCES EJECT OUT OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION FOR THIS
PERIOD APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. WILL KEEP POPS GOING
ALL PERIODS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 231500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES ONLY SOME LIMITED DIURNAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AROUND PEAK HEATING WITH BASED NEAR OR ABOVE 050.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CONFIDENCE IS GREAT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD WITH JUST CIRRUS THIS MORNING AND AC AND DIURNAL
SCATTERED CU 5K FEET OR ABOVE AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET. GRADUALLY MORE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THE BASES WILL LOWER BY LATER TOMORROW.
INTRODUCED LIGHT SHOWERS TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

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