Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 210151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
950 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Near Term and Aviation Sections have been updated below.


Issued at 321 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

A ridge of upper high pressure could contribute to some fog
development again overnight, but will also keep dry weather and
above normal temperatures across the area through the weekend. The
next chance for precipitation in the forecast does not arrive
until Wednesday.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of tonight/...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Update...Decided to downplay the fog threat overnight as the
temperature dewpoint spread running higher this evening and there is
a little more mixing as well.   I am tempted to drop all mention of
fog...but will leave in patchy fog most areas late tonight.  Also
raised low temperatures a degree or two over the northern half of
the region.

Otherwise...the rest of the near term is on track with mostly clear
skies and low temperatures in the upper 60s.  Could see some high
clouds over northern sections late tonight.


.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...

Issued at 321 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

After fog burns off Thursday morning, looking at a quiet forecast
period. Ridge of high pressure aloft will keep warm and dry
conditions in place over central Indiana. With good model agreement,
have high confidence of dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be the rule with mostly
clear skies. Low in the 60s are also expected.


.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...

Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Confidence is high surface pressure will cause dry, unseasonably
warm, weather through Tuesday. Temperature errors from the consensus
forecast should be 3 degrees or less.

Forecast confidence drops beginning Tuesday night. Temperatures
could be off by 3-5 degrees, and rain chances by 20 percent or more.

Forecast confidence declines midweek because is it is too early to
be certain how rapidly a cold front will move into Indiana from the
west. The front is going to bring relatively high rain chances and
cool temperatures, but models disagree about when that will be.
Until it arrives, Hoosier weather should stay dry and warm.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 210300Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Minor tweaks made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions.
No other changess are needed at this time.  Previous aviation
discussion follows...

A period of MVFR fog around sunrise...Otherwise...VFR.

High pressure over Ohio and eastern Kentucky will continue
through Thursday.  Ground has had a chance to dry out earlier
today which will lessen fog threat late tonight.  Will mention
a period of MVFR fog near sunrise for a few hours.  Otherwise...
no restrictions.

Mostly clear tonight and few CU Thursday.  Winds light tonight
and south 5 knots Thursday.




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