Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 251504
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.  MODELS TRACK A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH AND PRODUCING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION.  A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

MODELS INDICATE A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION AND THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

GOING FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS
TODAY AS COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO OUR REGION.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND WITH SOME
CLEARING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY FAR SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE MAY DECREASE SOME LATE TODAY.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 FAR NORTH TO ALMOST 40 SOUTH.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER OUR SOUTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MODELS MOVE AN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
WEST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER BENIGN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.  A
VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THOSE COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.  NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THOUGH.  FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.  THE FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE MORNING AND THEN BECOME
VFR CATEGORY FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY
FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 14 KTS
AND GUSTING TO 18 KTS. LATE IN TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BUT LIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS
LATE IN PERIOD COULD RESULT IN A BROKEN CLOUD DECK AT 150.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/CP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.