Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 260149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
948 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The Near Term Section has been updated below.


Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Three different weather systems will bring rain chances to central
Indiana the remainder of this weekend and much of next week.
Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly over average.


.NEAR TERM.../Rest of Tonight/
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

For the update just made some adjustments to hourly precip coverage.
Overall forecast is the same--pretty much everyone in central
Indiana will see rain at some point during the overnight, and with
elevated instability showing up through the night kept the slight
chance for thunder as well. Lows in the mid to upper 50s still right
on track as southerly flow and rain will continue under cloudy
skies. Previous discussion follows...

Main focus tonight will be on shower and thunderstorm timing and

Models in good agreement that an upper low will move slowly
northeast across the Ozarks and middle Mississippi Valley tonight. A
35 to 40 knot low level jet will pump gulf moisture and instability
northward across the Ohio Valley ahead of an associated slow moving
cold front. This should result in widespread showers with the best
chances overnight per the High Resolution Rapid Refresh.

With clouds increasing and southerly low level flow, will go at or
above a mos and model blend.


.SHORT TERM.../Sunday through Tuesday/
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Focus for the short term will be on shower and thunderstorm chances.

Models in general agreement that the upper low will lift northeast
across north central Indiana on Sunday before it opens up over
southern lower Michigan Sunday night. This will push a cold front
across central Indiana and bring widespread showers to the area
Sunday. Model instability progs were showing enough unstable air for
thunder mention. As the trough moves further away, should only see a
few residual showers east Sunday evening before a brief break occurs.

By Monday, a trailing upper trough will bring more showers to the
area. The best chances look to be Monday night as the trough and an
associated cold front move through. Models are showing enough model
instability for thunder. The showers are expected to diminish and
end on Tuesday in the wake of the trough and front.

Low level thermal progs and expected cloud cover support above
normal temperatures from the blend with highs in the 60s. The far
southern counties could even see lower 70s on Monday. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 40s and 50s.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Friday Night/...

Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will result in dry
conditions from Tuesday through Wednesday. The pattern will
change, however, on Wednesday night as a low pressure system
tracks from the Southern Plains into the Missouri Valley. Latest
model runs have the track taking more of a southerly route with
highest rain chances now south of the forecast area. Nonetheless,
latest Superblend initialization still has likely pops across the
southern portions of Central Indiana at times from Thursday
through Friday. Rain chances will not decrease until Friday night.
Meanwhile, temperatures through the period will be above normal
as Central Indiana falls into the warm sector of the
aforementioned system.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 260000z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 717 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Wind gusts should drop off quickly by/just after issuance so will
leave out for the most part, but did include at KIND for an hour
with more showers/thunderstorms moving through. Off and on showers
expected at the sites through the night and into the morning, with
ceilings dropping to MVFR after around 10-11z and staying down for
a few hours. Confidence only moderate that ceilings will improve
to VFR Sunday by midday. Should see wind gusts pick up again
Sunday afternoon with gusts around 18-24 kts out of the southwest.

As far as thunder is concerned...only included VCTS at KIND and
KBMG through around 5z. Thunder after that can`t be completely
ruled out but very low confidence. Left out of KLAF and KHUF for
same reason.




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