Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 031424
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1024 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN MID WEEK. MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL THEN
SEE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BY
AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY BUILDS THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. 850MB WINDS WILL BE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH UPPER SUPPORT. WILL ONLY GO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TODAY FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET CLOSE
TO MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTREME SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES JUST OUT OF THE AREA. ON TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL MEANDER
NORTH JUST FAR ENOUGH TO GO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORCING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT TO GENERATE
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL SETUP
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NAM/CANADIAN FARTHER NORTH AND GFS/ECMWF
FARTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW WENT LIKELY POPS SOUTH HALF BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS NORTH. WILL LIKELY ADJUST THESE
POPS AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

CUT MOS TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN
AROUND. OTHERWISE STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD LIKELY AND
DEFINITE POPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA ON THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT
DEVIATE AT THIS TIME. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH IN FORM OF
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSRA OVER SOUTHERN OHIO DEPARTING TO THE
EAST HAS RESULTED N SOME BKN MVFR SC THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD DESK
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND WEAKEN AS MIXING RESUMES LATE THIS
MORNING. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD VFR CIGS BY 17Z. SOME AFTERNOON CU
WILL BE EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE LOWER
80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
COLD FRONT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES. SO...WENT WITH A
DRY FORECAST AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KLAF LATE TONIGHT FROM
LINGERING MOISTURE AFTER LAST NIGHT/S STORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT KIND THIS
AFTERNOON /10 TO 14 KTS/.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.