Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271852
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
252 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
THEN CONDITIONS DRY OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL GIVE WAY TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE MIDWEEK FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA IN AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. NOT REALLY ANY ORGANIZED FORCING TODAY WITH JUST THE OLD
FRONT IN THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE STORMS BY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SLOW MOVING CONVECTION.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING.
THUS WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SOME FOG AND
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS AND KEPT
SKY COVER UP.

STAYED NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE MOS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES GIVEN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND
WAS USED.

BIG QUESTION FOR TUESDAY IS TO MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION OR NOT.
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM. HOWEVER OLD
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

WHILE CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME POP UP STORMS...FEEL THAT THE
RISING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP KEEP COVERAGE BELOW THE 20
PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR MENTIONING. WILL GO DRY TUESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM SEEMS A BIT
FAST BY BRINGING IN RAIN DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER ECMWF AND
CANADIAN BRING IN SOME RAIN BY 12Z. THUS CONTINUED TO GO DRY MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH LOW POPS NORTHWEST LATE.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AROUND...WENT HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS ALL AREAS.

FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WENT DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

WENT A LITTLE BELOW MOS ON TUESDAY SOME AREAS WITH THE WET GROUND
AND THE POTENTIAL MORNING STRATUS. WENT WITH A BLEND MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THIS PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO DRY AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS. ALSO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. AFTER
THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES
RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR POSSIBLY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS ENSEMBLES SHOW TWO WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...FIRST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE THUS
INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS HERE DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ONLY TO HAVE CONDITIONS BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS CALM LATE AND WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. FOG/LOW
STRATUS DECK WILL IMPACT CENTRAL THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS. OUTLYING SITES WILL GO DOWN
TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLY IFR OR LOWER.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF


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