Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 241800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES EXPECTED TO EXIT THE LOCAL
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

OTHERWISE...THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES CREST OF UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DON/T REALLY SEE ANYTHING EITHER IN THE MODEL
DATA OR ON SATELLITE TO SUGGEST MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT
TODAY...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING OUT IN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE POP OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
COVER ANYTHING THAT MAY SNEAK INTO THAT AREA LATER.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE
TOO COOL. WILL RAISE THE HIGH TODAY A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS.
DETERIORATION TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z MONDAY.

THE TAFS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LLJ NEAR 45 KNTS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHRA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR 12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE.

BY 18Z MONDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WITH CCL/S NEAR 2500FT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

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