Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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881
FXUS63 KIND 221836
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions through the day
Tuesday, then an upper level trough and a surface frontal system
will bring chances for rain through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will remain above average.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Satellite shows only a few cumulus around this afternoon, and these
will dissipate after sunset leaving behind clear skies for the
night. With light winds and a clear sky, trended toward the cooler
MOS for low temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Focus is on chances for rain late in the period. Models are close
enough that a blend was used.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure will provide dry conditions
into Tuesday. Some models try to bring in rain late Tuesday
afternoon with an upper disturbance, but believe they are overdoing
low level moisture (as is typical) and thus instability. Short range
ensembles are also drier, so will keep Tuesday dry.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday, moisture will start to improve with
better southerly flow. Additional upper disturbances will move out
from the upper trough in the western USA and provide forcing. There
is too much uncertainty on when exactly these will impact the area,
so kept PoPs broadbrushed.

Went chance PoPs most areas during that period, with highest PoPs on
Wednesday when better instability and moisture arrive.

For temperatures, went warmer than guidance for highs given how
temperatures have overperformed today and expected warm advection
later in the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Issued at 210 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Active weather pattern takes shape during this period. ECMWF shows
a significant pattern change from the persistent trends of May.
Strong ridging begins to set up over the east coast during this
time. This results in a warm and moist southerly flow of air to
begin to push into the Ohio valley. ECMWF fails to show any well
organized waves pushing across Indiana during this time
period...however a couple of weak to marginal short waves look to
pass. This in combination with dew points climbing into the 60s
and daily highs expected in the 80s will result in daily chances
for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /discussion for the 221800z tafs/...

Issued at 1253 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected this period.

Strong ridging and high pressure will remain across Indiana during
this period. Forecast soundings and time height sections show a
dry column with subsidence through the period.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP



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