Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 252218
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
618 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO AROUND AVERAGE READINGS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 613 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST NORTH OF KOKOMO TO
LAFAYETTE AND ATTICA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS AND
TRAILING STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS HAS PROMPTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME COLD
POOL DOMINATED THE FURTHER SOUTH THEY GET TOWARDS THE WEAK SHEAR
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT A FEW COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK NEAR PERSISTENCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. TRENDED TOWARD SOLUTIONS WITH A SLOWER
MOVING COLD FRONT SINCE THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO WAIT ON THE UPPER
RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT.

FOR TUESDAY WENT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES.  WENT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WITH SIMILAR POPS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER.

BY WEDNESDAY FRONT WILL BE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SO WENT CHANCE POPS
ALL AREAS. KEPT POPS LOW AS THERE WILL ONLY BE A LITTLE UPPER
SUPPORT FROM A JET STREAK WELL TO THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH
AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH WITH COLD FRONT HAVING SUNK FARTHER SOUTH.
STILL NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR IT.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...ON TUESDAY MAV MOS STILL LOOKS TOO WARM
GIVEN CLOUD COVER FROM POTENTIAL STORMS. TOOK A MODEL BLEND. WITH
FRONT AND POTENTIAL RAIN IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MAV STILL LOOKS
WARM. WENT IN BETWEEN MAV/MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY HOWEVER...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT REESTABLISHING AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND INTO THE REGION. WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON SPECIFIC
TIMING TO THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE ALOFT...WILL PLACE HIGHEST
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. WITH INCREASED
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 252100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE TAF WORTH MENTIONING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL CU
HAVING DEVELOPED IN THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. BASES
HAVE BEEN DOWN AS LOW AS 2KFT BUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
ANTICIPATE BASES TO RISE TO AROUND 3500FT. CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES PRESENTS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE EVENING. MESOANALYSIS INDICATING A
GENERAL E/NE MOVEMENT TO THE STORMS BUT SOME SUGGESTION THAT
ACTIVITY COULD BUILD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. WILL
HIT MID LEVEL CEILINGS HARDER AT KLAF ASSUMING SOME OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS SPREADS INTO NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT
CAPPING INVERSION AND LACK OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT
CONVECTION FROM HAVING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN LIKELY IN HAZE AND PATCHY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY
MID MORNING WITH DIURNAL CU AGAIN DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS. FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY ENABLE CONVECTION
TO BUILD FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/MK

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