000
FXUS63 KIND 071051
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
553 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COLD WEATHER TODAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL THEN
BE COLD AND DRY WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW COVER. DUE TO THE SNOW COVER WENT COOLER THAN
MAV MOS MOST AREAS.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS VERY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.

ON SUNDAY AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM. STRONGER LIFT WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST
OF THE AREA AS WELL BASED ON THE POSITION OF AN UPPER JET.

THEREFORE FEEL ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE. SINCE DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ICE MAY NOT BE PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS.
THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN LIEU OF SNOW.

WILL GO WITH SNOW EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN MOISTURE IS A LITTLE BETTER
THEN GO WITH SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MID MORNING ON. WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL MOVE IN LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF MORE MOISTURE THAN EXPECTED BECOMES
AVAILABLE...COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET INSTEAD OF THE
SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. BY THEN ONLY THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO HAVE ANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO WENT SNOW THERE.

WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT ICING AND TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ON SUNDAY DUE TO FREEZING
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
AREA.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY WENT BELOW MOS MOST
LOCATIONS DUE TO SNOW COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION TUESDAY AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.  BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND EURO
MODELS INDICATE DRY WEATHER AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD.  THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING JUST AFTER DAY 7.

THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED. WITH
FRESH SNOW/ICE PACK ON THE GROUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALLBLEND
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AREAS WHERE LITTLE SNOW FELL.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
BY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES ON TO THE EAST.
&&

AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 071200 TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 553 AM EDT SAT DEC 6 2013

VFR FOR AT LEAST NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY NOON
SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FEW DRY AIRMASS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THERE MAY FEW A FEW CU OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AT KIND AND KLAF
LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER SUNDAY MORNING AND LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AREAS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 8 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST LATE
TODAY AND EAST LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...CP/JH

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