Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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183
FXUS63 KIND 261944
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
344 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...

The Synopsis, Near Term, and Short Term sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

A broad frontal zone will remain in place across the Ohio Valley
much of this week, with several subtle waves and a warm moist
airmass in place providing several opportunities for showers and
storms, particularly across the southern half of central Indiana.
Thunderstorm chances will persist throughout the seven day
forecast period as this active pattern remains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Storms associated with an earlier weak wave have exited the area,
although additional storms, largely diurnally driven, have
developed along the frontal zone just south and southwest of the
area. Cannot rule out these making it into the southern portion of
the area tonight, and will have to maintain some pops. Will be
closely monitoring hydro threat, particularly across the southeast
where some flash flooding occurred earlier. Storms have been
highly efficient precipitation producers in a pseudotropical
airmass with deep warm cloud depth. This is unlikely to change in
the coming days.

Fog may be an issue tonight but will depend significantly on how
much cloud cover or possible thunderstorms are across the area.
Will leave these details to the evening shift to monitor.

Consensus temperatures appear reasonable based on low level
thermal progs and were generally accepted. With only slight
changes in the airmass expect a similar gradient to last night
across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Will require pops every period throughout the short term as the
frontal zone remains in or near the area and one or more subtle
upper level waves interacts with it. Hydrologic issues could
easily develop later this week as rain chances will be highest
across the south which received ample rainfall today, particularly
across the southeast where 5 plus inches may have fallen in some
spots. Airmass quality will remain highly precipitation efficient,
but uncertainty in timing and organization of storms precludes
flood watch products at this time.

Consensus temperatures again appear reasonable throughout but will
be significantly dependent on convective influences, which would
lower max temps. This may be particularly apparent on Thursday
when pops are highest.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Pops will be the main focus for the long term.

Long term will start off as a frontal system slides southeast
overthe area Friday night before stalling over the Ohio Valley late
inthe weekend and early next week. Meanwhile, broad upper trough
willprogress slowly from the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley
thisweekend and east of the area early next week. With plenty
ofmoisture in place and a front nearby, feel regional blend
chancepops look good through most of the period. Sunday night may be
anexception.

Low level thermal progs, ridge moving in early next week andexpected
cloud cover suggest temperatures will start off normal orslightly
below and then warm to normal and slightly above by earlynext week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 261800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Would not rule out a few pop up thunderstorms at HUF and BMG this
afternoon, however chances too low to mention. VFR conditions with
convective ceilings around 4k feet expected this afternoon. The
exception will be overnight as some MVFR or worse fog is possible
09z-13z at the smaller airports.

Winds will be east less than 10 knots today and then light to calm
tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK



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