Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 162230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM/COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AT THAT TIME AND
PREVAIL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FURTHER OUT...RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES CENTRAL INDIANA.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW ENTERS
THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ENTER
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING
PRECIP CONFINED TO WISCONSIN WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS. AS A
RESULT...KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR DURATION OF TONIGHT.

TEMPS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. MODEL
BLEND CAPTURED TEMPS BEST WITH PROJECTED LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS RAIN CHANCES WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDINESS ALL DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP ENTERING NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER FRI 06Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AS EARLY AS FRI 00Z. SO...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS WEST/NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY THAT TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE FRI
12-18Z TIME FRAME...QUICKLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER FRI 18Z
AS MOISTURE ABRUPTLY ENDS ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY
EVENING...AND DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH FLUCTUATING PATTERN FROM COLD FRONT PASSAGE...
SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.



&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED TONIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FOG FORMATION.

MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MRD
AVIATION...50

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