Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 211703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
103 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 335 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

It will be cooler and dry today as a cold front over western Ohio and
Kentucky continues east and an upper trough moves east across the great
lakes.  High pressure over the plains will move east across Indiana
Monday and another frontal system will move our way towards Thursday.

After that front moves through another area of high pressure will
dominate our weather Friday and Saturday.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 934 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Going forecast on track and no changes made. Previous discussion

A cold front over western Ohio and Kentucky will continue moving east
as high pressure over the plains builds into our region by Monday.
Satellite indicated skies were mostly clear over the northwest half
of our region while clouds were across the southeast half.  Expect most
areas to be clear by sunrise.  With cold advection and daytime heating
expect a moderate amount of CU to develop across the northern half of
central Indiana by early afternoon.  Went a bit higher on the clouds than
most models indicated over northern sections.  On other hand expect it
to remain mostly sunny over southern sections.

Concerning temperatures...went close to a MOS blend with highs from the
lower 70s over northern to the upper 70s south.

With loss of daytime heating and good subsidence expect clear skies all
areas late tonight with lows in the lower to middle 50s.

Winds will be northwest 10 to 15 mph today becoming light northwest
tonight.  Leaned more towards higher MET winds today...otherwise
stayed close to a MOS blend.


.SHORT TERM /Monday through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Quiet and pleasant weather will occur both Monday and Tuesday as
high pressure dominates our weather as it moves to the east. A light
southwest flow will develop late Monday and become southerly Tuesday
as high pressure moves on to the east.  With lots of sun and some
warm advection...went slightly above a MOS blend for highs and
stayed close to a MOS blend on lows.    Generally went with highs
in the upper 70s to around 80 Monday and the lower 80s Tuesday.
Lows will be in the upper 50s Monday night and lower to middle 60s
Tuesday night.

Most models precip close to our western border by 12Z Wednesday and will
continue 20 percent POPS far west late Tuesday night.  Otherwise it
will be dry through the period.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday Night/...

Issued at 352 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Latest Superblend initialization seems to be handling the pattern
well, so no changes were needed. An upper trough and associated
frontal system at the surface will enter Central Indiana around
mid-week, producing showers and thunderstorms, especially on
Thursday when a cold front moves through. Further out, high
pressure will strengthen at the surface by Friday, resulting in
dry conditions through the end of the extended period. A weak
warming trend will commence early in the period, but temperatures
will fall again by Friday in wake of the aforementioned cold


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 211800z tafs/...

Issued at 103 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR Conditions are expected this taf period.

High pressure will build across the taf sites allowing mostly
clear skies through the period. For now...dew point depressions
overnight look to remain at 2 degrees or greater...thus will leave
out a fog mention for now. Time heights and forecast soundings
remain dry through the period.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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