Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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282
FXUS63 KIND 231339
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
939 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

High pressure is expected across the area into Tuesday. A frontal
system is expected to affect the area towards the middle and end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 939 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Forecast is in good shape. Tweaked high temperatures up in some
locations, but no significant changes made.

Previous discussion follows...

Dry weather expected today under upper ridge and surface high
pressure. Little in the way of significant cloud cover expected
with low humidity values throughout the atmospheric column.

Progged low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS highs
for today, so only minor adjustments planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Model data suggest upper ridge will flatten out towards the middle
of the week. At the surface, a frontal system is expected to drop
south from the Great Lakes, possibly as far south as northern
Indiana by Wednesday. 850mb flow into the front not particularly
strong, about 20-25 kts, but the location of enhanced flow is in a
favorable area for convective development in the local area by
late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Model data also
suggest the eastern fringes of a large EML plume over the Plains
may move into the area by Wednesday. Given the above, will
continue with chance PoPs starting Tuesday night through the end
of the short term.

Based on progged low level thicknesses, the GFS MOS temperature
guidance for the short term looks reasonable. Little, if any,
adjustments planned.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Main focus regarding the long term will continue to be on
thunderstorms and temperatures.

Nothing has changed much over the last few days as the models and
ensembles continue to be similar in lifting a southwestern upper
trough northeast before it gets deflected by a strong eastern ridge
northward to the western Great Lakes on Sunday. Meanwhile...warm...moist
and unstable flow off the Gulf of Mexico will interact with
numerous impulses ejecting northeast around the base of the upper
trough toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This will be a
fertile breeding ground for thunderstorm chances throughout the
Holiday weekend per good chance regional blend pops.

The southerly flow should allow temperatures to top out in the lower
80s each day...despite the convection...per the regional blend. Dew
points should also climb well into the 60s...making it feel rather
humid.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/1200Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 605 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Good confidence that VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period.
Any brief fog after 10z at the smaller airports should dissipate by
or very shortly after 12z. So...did not include it. Otherwise...high
pressure and a dry column will result in only high clouds at worst
though 18z Tuesday. Would not completely rule out brief fog 09z-
12z...but too far out and GFS LAMP and SREF do not support it.

Light northeast winds at IND will become southeast and south less
than 10 knots after 14z. The other sites will see a calm wind become
southeast and east less than 10 knots and calm again after 01z
Tuesday.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK



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