Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280855
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
455 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THEN ASIDE FROM SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...WITH READINGS RETURNING TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 453 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

0845Z UPDATE...BASED ON TRENDS UPSTREAM...UPDATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE/SCATTERED...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TRENDS PROJECT THIS WEAK COLD
FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM 12-18Z TODAY AND
SINK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. EITHER
MAINTAINED OR INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS EARLY
TODAY...THEN GOING MOSTLY DRY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

A MODEL BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
MOVING IN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK EARLY TODAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE DRY...AND
COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

ON THURSDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI. SOME
WEAK LIFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW AND MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FROM DRY TO 20
PERCENT OVER THE AREA FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN ON HALLOWEEN WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
SHOCK FOR TRICK OR TREATERS AS A COMPACT UPPER LOW DIVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE
EVENING. MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WITH THE LOW...BUT WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY BY THE EVENING. THIS WILL
BE OF ONLY MODERATE CONSOLATION HOWEVER IN THE FACE OF NORTH WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 30 DEGREES OR
LESS ON FRIDAY EVENING.

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DRY...AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. A FRONTAL ZONE WILL
IMPINGE UPON THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING A RETURN OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

ADDED GUSTS AT IND AND BMG AS THEY HAVE GUSTED OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY. REMOVED WIND SHEAR FROM THOSE SITES AS
WELL AS SHEAR IS IMPLIED BY GUSTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO BEGIN IMPACTING
THE TAF SITES TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AFTER ABOUT 281000Z. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...BUT POTENTIAL OF A DIRECT IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE SHOWER AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE IFR FOR
THE MOST PART...WITH ONLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FROM LATE MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY.

MODELS SUGGEST THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PASS OFF TO THE
EAST AFTER 280800Z OR SO. AS A RESULT...THINK THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THAT TIME.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 200-220 DEGREES AT 10-14 KTS OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN AREAS
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET CAN MIX CLOSER TO THE GROUND. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO 270-290 DEGREES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS/NIELD

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