Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 310649
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK


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