Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 210209

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1009 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Low Pressure over kentucky late this afternoon will push northeast
tonight...dragging a cold front along the Ohio River father
southeast. As the low departs the area...rain across Central
Indiana will taper off during the evening hours.

High pressure over the Central Plains states is expected to build
across the region...bringing a blast dry weather and seasonal
fall temperatures.

The dry weather is expected to persist through the weekend and at
least into early next week.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 958 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Current forecast is on track, so no changes were needed. Current
temps across the area are ranging from the low to mid 50s and are
projected to dip into the low to mid 40s. Current radar mosaic
shows some lingering showers across the forecast area, but they
should taper off overnight. Updated grids have been sent.

HRRR Continues to suggest lingering precipitation across the
forecast area through the late afternoon. However after 00z best
moisture will be rapidly departing the area. forecast soundings
and time heights do shows lower level moisture lingering through
the evening hours...but lift should be much weaker as best forcing
and dynamics should depart rapidly to the northeast. Best chance
for precip after 00z may be with the tail of the system...seen at
the moment as some light showers across Missouri. None the
less...will taper pops lower as the night progresses.

As the cold front sags southward...strong Cold air advection
continues to stream into central Indiana. 850MB temps show values
falling to near 2c by 12Z Friday. Thus will trend toward the
cooler MAVMOS lows.


.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...

Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Dry weather is expected this period.

After the departure of the broad trough in place across the area
on Friday...GFS and NAM suggest Strong ridging to build across the
western plains and slowly spill eastward...placing The Ohio
valley in a broad area of lee side subsidence, Forecast soundings
through Sunday show a dry column....with fair weather CU/SC
expected on Friday...and unattainable convective temperatures on
Saturday and again on Sunday. Thus will aim for Partly sunny
Friday and Mostly sunny on Saturday and Sunday. The quick NW flow
aloft should allow a few passing high clouds through the
period...although this should have no impact.

As for temps...the Cool air in place behind the front will linger
across the area before Warm air advection is expected to begin on
Saturday. Furthermore additional sunshine on Saturday an Sunday
should allow a slow modification of the cooler air mass.
Additionally as the surface high passes to our east on Saturday
night and Sunday...Warmer return flow will develop within the
lower levels. Thus look for Friday to be the coolest day...with
daytime high trending higher each day through Sunday.


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

A cold front will bring some cooler air early in the week, but
lack of moisture will keep conditions dry. The quiet weather can be
expected until mid week, when a low pressure system could bring some
showers to the area Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday.

Temperatures will be near to above average.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 210000Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 702 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Kept VCSH or showers in the main group through 03z-04z. Moderate
confidence that MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR 08z-10z. Northwest
winds will remain around 10 knots and should keep fog from being an
issue. Finally, Cu development progs suggest diurnal VFR cu Friday





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