Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 180521
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
121 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND MOST AREAS FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER.  ONE OF THESE WILL OCCUR AROUND MONDAY AND
THE OTHER ONE WILL BE JUST AFTER DAY 7.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

0140Z UPDATE...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.  RADAR INDICATES FRONT IS
PRESENTLY DRY. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.   WILL CONTINUE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE
MUCH OF ANYTHING ANYWHERE ELSE...BUT FOR CONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE
20 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
FOR NOW.

THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION. MODELS KEY ON THE
BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY AND WITH
ALL AREAS BEING DRY BY LATE FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN KEPT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE MOST AREAS MAINLY BECAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN
THE FORECAST.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT NEAR A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND
CUT TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDS AND WEAK COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
SUNDAY.  MODELS INDICATE A VERY AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES START OUT AT +5 TO +6 CELSIUS SATURDAY
WARMING TO ABOUT +10 CELSIUS BY SUNDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER
MILD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER AND OVERALL THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE. HOWEVER MIN TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN MOST CASES CUT LOW TEMPERATURES 3 TO 4
DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTENDED TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST AND FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON AN EARLY
WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES AS A WEEK UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS THE EURO HANGS THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WHICH TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER
GFS SOLUTION. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND KEPT SOME
LINGERING POPS IN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BACK TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180600Z TAFS ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS ILLINOIS TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW WEAK
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE. RADAR MOSIACS SHOW PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING
ACROSS MISSOURI. OBS FAIL TO SHOW ANY MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM...THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JP

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