Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 140438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1238 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 932 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS BROAD...WELL ORGANIZED
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
RADAR WAS QUIET AND SATELLITE SHOWS JUST A FEW WANING DIURNAL CU
OVER NORTHEASTERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
EVEN SOME UPPER 30S.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF INDIANA/S WEATHER. ILX 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWS A VERY DRY COLUMN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THUS WITH VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS IN EFFECT HAVE TRENDED OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SOME UPPER 30S
MAY OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SUNDAY VIRTUALLY A SLIGHTLY WARMER CARBON COPY OF THIS AFTERNOON/S
WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S(NORTH) TO
LOW 70S (SOUTH).

MODELS STILL DEPICTING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS STILL A BIT
LACKING AND MOISTURE MINIMAL...HOWEVER ALL THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND/OR SPRINKLES TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY. BASED ON HIGHER
CONFIDENCE HAVE INCREASED CHANCES TO JUST SHY OF LIKELY.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO ANOTHER PICTURESQUE CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

GUIDANCE AGREES WELL THAT LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THUS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES A
BIT BELOW NORMAL. BLENDED INITIALIZATION HANDLES THIS WELL AND FEW
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED. MAY SEE A WARMUP TO NEARER NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN TIME
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 140600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REACHED DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SUNDAY IN THE RURAL AREAS...SO EXPECTING FOG TO DEVELOP
THERE. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
YET...BUT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD ARE QUITE NARROW ALREADY...SO
SHOULD SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP SOON. THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
IFR RESTRICTIONS APPEAR TO BE AFTER 140800Z BASED ON EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS. THE MOISTURE LAYER LOOKS TO BE VERY
SHALLOW...SO THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE.

SOME LIMITED DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 035 EXPECTED TOWARDS
MIDDAY. NO WIND ISSUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS/JH

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