Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 241648

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1248 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.



Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Another hot and humid day is in store today across Central the hot and humid air mass remains in place. A cold
front will sag south toward Central Indiana tonight and pass
across the states on Monday. This will bring chances fro showers
and storms late tonight and again on Monday.

Cooler High pressure is expected to arrive across the area on
Monday night and Tuesday...returning temperatures closer to
seasonal normals.

Another low pressure system is expected to arrive in the area late
in the work week bringing chance for showers and storms back to
the region.


.NEAR TERM /Update for the afternoon/...

Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Bumped max temperature a degree higher given latest data at Indy
and couple other spots otherwise no change. Still expect max heat
indices to be near advisory criteria at 105. Still not expecting
precip before 250000Z outside of an isolated diurnal shower.


.SHORT TERM /tonight through Tuesday night/...

Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

GFS and NAM both suggest an upper short wave arriving over the
upper midwest tonight...helping a surface cold front to begin to
sag southward toward Indiana. GFS is a bit more aggressive with a
few waves ahead of the trough as should be expected ahead of the
cold front in the very warm and moist air mass. Forecast soundings
show plenty of CAPE available...and with the cold front
approaching...mainly late...this extra triggering should be able
to generate storms. Will Trend pops higher than
mavmos...particularly across the northwest of the forecast area
where front arrives first. Again will trend lows at or above
mavmos...particularly the the cold front

FROPA looks to occur near 12z...and forecast soundings hint
toward saturation. Thus will continue to keep pop at or above
mavmos as the forcing passing during the morning hours on Monday.
Conditions should trend toward dry as the day progress as high
pressure builds across the area and forecast soundings show
drying through the column. With morning clouds and very weak cold
air advection...will trend highs on monday cooler than mavmos.

Subsidence and drying with the column is seen within forecast
soundings on Monday night through Tuesday night. This will lead to
partly cloudy skis through this period...along with near normal
temps. Will stick to a blend on temps here.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The long term pattern is characterized by a broad upper ridge over
the southern U.S. with a large upper low over northern Quebec
suppressing the ridge over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This
will set up a situation where upper shortwaves move through the
main flow prompting thunderstorm chances as they interact with a
front that will stall out and meander across the area. Timing
specific waves is a futile effort given model variability so will
use the superblend guidance without deviation, which broadbrushes
chances for thunderstorms throughout the long term. Temperatures
should return to near normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the
mid to upper 60s.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 241800z TAD Issuance/...

Issued at 1248 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Moderate to high confidence that VFR conditions and dry weather will
continue through 00z. Cu development progs and model soundings
suggest there will be only scattered diurnal cu with bases around 4k
feet and perhaps a higher deck at times.

Tonight, a cold front will drop southeast and bring an increased
chance of thunderstorms, especially at LAF. Will start off with VCTS
at LAF by 00z and then prevailing MVFR thunderstorms there from 05z-
12z. The HRRR reflectivity progs are in good agreement with this
thinking. Will start thunder mention a few hours later at the other
sites, but confidence is not high enough for prevailing thunder at
those airports. The cold front should reach LAF around 09z, IND and
HUF around 12z. After that a wave will move along the front will
slow it up. So, the front may not even reach BMG during the TAF

South and southwest winds around 10 knots this afternoon will drop
to 5 knots or less after 01z and then shift to west and northwest
behind the cold front.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-028>031-



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