Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 300830
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH 850MB WINDS OF 30-40KT ARE BRINGING IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
BETTER FORCING THOUGH DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER JET MOVE IN.

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS. HI RES RAPID REFRESH
MODEL SHOWS ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THIS
MAKES SENSE WITH BETTER FORCING ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY.

THUS GRADUALLY RAISED POPS THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...REACHING LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE WEST BY 00Z AND HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY ELSEWHERE BY THEN.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS EAST WHERE
BULK OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND TOWARD THE COOLER MET
NUMBERS WEST WHERE RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE BIG PICTURE BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. SEE NO CLEAR
FAVORITE IN THE DETAILS SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET
TONIGHT. WITH DECENT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL GO LIKELY POPS.
LOWERED POPS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS FORCING LESSENS SOME. COULD
BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. WENT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING SOUTHEAST AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WENT CHANCE CATEGORY OR
LOWER.

LITTLE FORCING WILL BE AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SINCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...LEFT THEM ALONE TO
AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING AS ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PLENTIFUL. 30-40KT WINDS AT 850MB AND AN UPPER JET WILL AID IN
FORCING. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT MET LOOKS TOO COOL. WENT IN BETWEEN. ON MONDAY
MAV STILL LOOKS A BIT WARM MOST AREAS BUT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF THE
MARK IF RAIN ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY. CUT MAV AS NEEDED. FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM. ENSEMBLE BLEND CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHICH ARE TENDING TO CHANGE A BIT RUN TO RUN
REGARDING THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. TRENDS
CONTINUE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS ONLY SMALL POPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND.
FINALLY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/0900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR OR MVFR SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WEST AFTER 10Z PER
RADAR TRENDS...SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 11Z-15Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MOSTLY VFR UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH LESS THAN 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH UP TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST 8 KNOTS OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH/MK

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