Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 231700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1200 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 345 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Strong low pressure system over northeastern Georgia and
northwestern South Carolina early this morning will move off the
North Carolina coast tonight. A few showers will linger over mainly
eastern parts of central Indiana through this evening. Then, another
system will move over the Great Lakes mid week with a return to
seasonable temperatures in its wake late this week and weekend. In
addition, several quick moving waves in northwest flow aloft, will
bring periodic snow chances to the area late in the week and


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today and tonight/...
Issued at 950 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

For the morning update, adjusted hourly pops to increase chances
across the eastern and northeastern counties this afternoon and
evening based on current radar mosaic and hi res model output.
Cloudy skies will be the rule in the west. Temperatures still
expected to increase by a few degrees late this morning/early
afternoon but then remain steady through the late afternoon. Patchy
fog should improve in the next couple of hours.

Previous discussion follows...

Models in good agreement that strong low pressure system over the
southeastern states will move out to sea off the Carolina coast
tonight. This will bring a gradual end to the light showers over the
area from west to east by this evening. Meanwhile, areas west of
Lafayette and Bloomington are expected to just see thick cloud cover
with lingering low level moisture trapped under an inversion. Winds
will shift to northwest and increase to around 15 mph with gusts to
20 or more.

With the gusty northwest winds and cloudy skies, look for little
rise in temperatures with afternoon highs closer to the cooler 00z
NAM MOS in the mid 40s northwest to around 50 southeast. The winds
will ease up overnight, and model rh time sections and soundings
suggest there could be some breaks in the clouds near daybreak
southwest as a surface ridge moves in. MOS blend with lows in the
30s looks good.


.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 345 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Models in agreement that an upper low will develop in western states
trough on Tuesday. The low will then track northeast to northern
Michigan on Wednesday and then reform over northern Quebec Wednesday
night. This will bring a noticeable difference to the past several
days as more seasonable air will filter in in the wake of an
associated cold front that will sweep east over central Indiana
Wednesday. In addition, there could also be some rain showers
Tuesday night into Wednesday and rain showers mixing with and
changing to snow showers Wednesday night. That said, the bulk of the
moisture will be north of central Indiana. So, stayed with chance
pops north mainly north through Wednesday with chance pops northeast
and slight chance southwest Wednesday night. Needless to say, not
expecting anything more than a dusting of snow accumulation, if that.

Could see some sunshine Tuesday, otherwise low level thickness progs
and thick clouds favor model blend with highs 45 to 50 Tuesday and
47 to 53 Wednesday and lows upper 30s to lower 40s Tuesday night
pref-frontal and lower to mid 30s Wednesday night post-frontal.


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday Night/...

Issued at 344 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Cold air on the back side of a low pressure system will be in
place for the start of the extended period. As a result, any
lingering moisture with the aforementioned system will be in the
form of a wintry mix on Thursday morning. As temperatures warm
into the upper 30s on Thursday though, that mix will transition to
all rain. Moisture will be limited though and precipitation will
mainly be confined to the northeastern quadrant of the forecast
area. As temperatures dip into the 20s on Thursday night and
remain at the freezing mark on Friday across those northeastern
counties, precipitation will be in the form of snow. No
accumulations are expected. Further out, Superblend initialization
is trending toward a dry forecast except for some slight chance
snow showers across the northeastern counties again on Saturday in
the cold advection.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 231800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1149 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

IFR conditions will remain the rule this afternoon for the sites,
with the possible exception of KHUF. Wraparound from the low
pressure system currently centered over western North Carolina is
keeping low ceilings in place. As this slowly moves off to the
east, similarly slow improvement will be seen moving in from the
west, with ceilings climbing to MVFR at KHUF as early as 21z or
so, with around 0z or later at KLAF. Guidance for KIND and KBMG
indicates they will stay IFR through the overnight. MVFR
visibilities may improve this afternoon/evening but then return
later tonight. VFR could move into the western sites before 18z
tomorrow and before 0z at KIND and KBMG, but confidence of this is
still fairly low.

Wind gusts out of the northwest around 15-25 kts should drop off
later this afternoon as the pressure gradient slackens.




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