Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 062008
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
308 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 154 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

High pressure will strengthen at the surface over Central Indiana
as low pressure pushes farther east. As a result, a lull in the
active pattern will prevail tonight into tomorrow. So, dry
conditions and near normal temperatures can be expected through
tomorrow. The pattern will drastically change by tomorrow night
though as the next system brings in much colder air. Latest
models are now trending toward a dry forecast though with the
Wednesday night/Thursday system. As a result, the next chance for
precipitation will not be until the weekend when a series of
systems brings rain and snow chances into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 154 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

The low pressure system that brought rain to the forecast area
earlier today continues to move farther northeast into the Ohio
Valley.  Meanwhile, high pressure will strengthen to the west,
resulting in dry conditions tonight.  Superblend initialization
was accepted for most variables.

Partial clearing tonight will support temperatures dropping into
the mid to upper 20s. Again, models are close enough to accept
latest Superblend initialization.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Friday/...

Issued at 154 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

The main focus of the short term period continues to be a rather
broad low pressure system progged to move through Ontario, which
will bring some of the coldest air of the season so far. However,
after much fluctuation in the models over the last week, they
have finally trended toward the drier GFS. As a result, will keep
the latest dry Superblend initialization. So, all snow chances
have been removed at this time from Wednesday night into Thursday.
The track will keep best moisture well north of Central Indiana.

Cannot completely rule out some flurries on Thursday in the cold
advection on the back side of the system, but will not include in
the forecast at this time. The main focus will be the surge of
cold air with this system. Daytime highs will plummet from the 30s
of Wednesday to 20s on Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, overnight
lows will take a dive into the teens by Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
ISSUED AT 132 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016

ECMWF depicts a rather zonal flow through this period aloft.
However a quick moving short wave trough appears to arrive on
Monday night and into Tuesday. More activity appears ongoing
within the lower levels...with a warm front approaching on Sunday
as return flow around a surface high develops. The ECMWF then
shows low pressure and a cold front moving across Indiana on
Monday...however this appears to be a bit quicker than the forcing
aloft. Cold High pressure looks to return on Tuesday. Thus will
trend toward a dry forecast on Friday Night and Saturday...and
begin to ramp up pop chances on Sunday and Monday as the
previously mentioned systems are expected to be in the area.
Finally, back to dry on Tuesday as High pressure builds.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 061800 Tafs/...

Issued at 1205 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

Brief IFR conditions are expected to improve to MVFR Cigs at most
of the TAF Sites this afternoon. A return to VFR is expected this
evening.

Low pressure over KY is expected to continue to drift
northeast...exiting the region. Radar shows back edge of the
precipitation shield exiting the TAF sites and poised to end.
Satellite shows clouds extending west across Missouri...and this
will be expected to linger across the Taf sites over the next 6-10
hours. Forecast soundings and time heights show this...keeping
lower levels saturated.

As the low departs overnight...MVFR Clouds are expected to
dissipate overnight as Time Heights show drying within the lowest
levels. However mid and high clouds will continue to linger as
another wave approaches within the flow aloft.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP


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