Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290607
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
207 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BY
LATE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
PULL A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR REGION KEEPING US WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT SOME BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO WILL
KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA AFTER
MON 06Z.

CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING ANY
LOWER THAN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPREADING EAST
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN INDIANA IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS. THEY WILL SPREAD ON EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT. WILL
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL BUT AIRMASS WILL NOT BE THAT
UNSTABLE TONIGHT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER UPSTREAM IS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.  BELIEVE HPC 1 TO
1.5 INCHES QPF ACROSS OUR NORTH SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN THERE IS
STILL LOTS OF DRY AIR IN MID LEVELS AND PWAT NOT OVERLY HIGH.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WENT 1 TO 2 DEGREES ABOVE A MOS
BLEND GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT.  LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE 60S
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA BY LATE MONDAY AND THEN ON TO THE
EAST.  GENERALLY WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF TO
TWO THIRDS OF OUR REGION AND CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE MONDAY.  WENT
WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS OVER REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA AND A COUPLE OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OUR WAY.  BEST CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

LOTS OF CLOUDS MONDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
THEN.  HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL.    WENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR
LOWS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH MOST
OF THE LONG TERM. VARIOUS SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL
BRING CHANCES OF RAIN TO CENTRAL INDIANA EACH DAY DURING THE PERIOD.

EACH DAY WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASH OUT. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES LEADS TO BROAD CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS DO VARY ON CHANCES FOR RAIN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH GFS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN WHILE 12Z ECMWF MUCH LESS SO.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR
WORSE AT TIMES AS OVERRUNNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. COULD BE A BRIEF MORNING BREAK TOWARD
12Z...AND THEN SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING TOWARD
16Z AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHTNING AT
HUF AND BMG OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE...WILL
NOT PUT ANY LIGHTNING MENTION IN THE IND OR LAF TAFS BUT RATHER JUST
SHOWERS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 16Z MONDAY AT LAF AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT
THE OTHER SITES. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
MORE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK

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