Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 231840
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
240 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A quiet and warming start to the week is expected under the
influence of surface high pressure. The weather will turn active
again later in the week. Large scale troughing over the central
US will develop frontal systems which will impact the area midweek
and again late in the week and over the weekend, which will
return chances for showers and storms to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 1002 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Current forecast looks good for the most part. Will freshen up the
wind forecast for the rest of the day based on current observations.
Previous discussion follows.

Surface high pressure and a large low pressure system passing
through the southeast will continue to draw dry northeasterly flow
into the area today. Thus little to no cloud clover is expected
today.

Well-mixed boundary layer may result in a few wind gusts to around
25 MPH this afternoon.

Low level thermal progs and dry atmosphere support a decent
warmup today, with widespread highs in the upper 60s and perhaps a
few 70 degree readings today with ample sunshine. This is
slightly above consensus numbers. Somewhat moist ground from
recent rains will prevent a better warmup.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Dry weather will continue through the short term period as high
pressure controls the area and a slow moving, elongated area of
low pressure develops along a slow moving frontal zone to the
west. Other than a gradual increase in mid and high cloud late in
the period as the frontal system organizes, temperatures will be
the main significant forecast variable.

Low level thermal progs suggest steady warming throughout the
short term, with highs by Tuesday likely into the mid to upper
70s. Lows tonight will drop into the low 40s most of the area
(northeast winds off the urban heat island will keep IND readings
in the mid 40s), with lows Monday night around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night Through Sunday/...

Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

ECMWF suggests a strong negatively tilted trough moving into the
Ohio valley on Wednesday night into THursday along with an strong
area of Low pressure to the northwest. This system will have ample
dynamics and good moisture available...resulting in showers and
storms...confidence is growing.

Through Saturday...the ECMWF suggests High pressure building
aloft...pushing a strong ridge of high pressure aloft through the
Ohio Valley. Meanwhile...a frontal boundary is suggested to
sag into Indiana from the northwest on Saturday into Sunday. While
Indiana will remain within the warm sector during this
time...little support aloft appears available. Because of
this...confidence is lower than models are suggesting for
precipitation next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 231800Z TAFs/...

Issued at 106 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period.

GOES R Shows Clear skies across the TAF sites. This was associated
with high pressure that was in place from northern Indiana across
Northern Illinois to the Great Plains. Models suggest this feature
will continue to slowly sag east over the next 24-36
hours...maintaining control over Indiana/s weather. Forecast
soundings and time heights continue to reveal a dry column.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...JP


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