Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 230440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1240 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS COULD
LEAD TO FROST TONIGHT. THURSDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND BRING RAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ESPECIALLY DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LOW REACHING THE PLAINS AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS WELL AS BELOW NORMAL HIGHS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. WINDS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
FOR LONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST IN THE COLDEST
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST MOST AREAS WITH AREAS
OF FROST IN THE FAR NORTH. SHELTERED AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR FROST.

OTHERWISE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST ELEMENTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER MINNESOTA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...KEEPING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM COMPLETELY SLACKENING AND
THUS KEEPING THE WINDS FROM DROPPING TO CALM. COULD SEE SOME WISPY
CIRRUS OVERTOPPING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
SERIOUSLY INHIBIT COOLING. WITH THE WIND THOUGH WENT WITH THE WARMER
MAV NUMBERS IN THE LOW 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 40 IN THE
SOUTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST AND EVEN PERHAPS AREAS OF
FROST IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT THE EXTENT OF THE FROST WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON THE WINDS. THUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
FROST AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL ISSUE AN
SPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FROST BUT WILL NOT GO WITH ANY
HEADLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS/TIMING OF THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A MOS CONSENSUS.
QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
UNDER STRONG UPPER RIDGING. WHILE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME
MINOR QPF ALONG A BUILDING WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE TOP
OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AT THIS TIME THINK THE RIDGE WILL BE TOO STRONG
TO ALLOW ANY RAIN TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. THURSDAY MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH 18Z. THIS SET OF RUNS
IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT AND THUS
LOWERED POPS TO DRY IN THE EAST AND KEPT JUST CHANCE GOING IN THE
WEST UNTIL AFTER 0Z. GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCING
UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z FRIDAY AND
MAXIMIZED POPS AT HIGH LIKELIES THEN. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY BUT
STRONG FORCING INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER UNTIL 6Z. STILL IN THE
DAY 3 SEE TEXT...AND WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS
TIME AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE NOT ANTICIPATING A SLIGHT
RISK UNLESS NEW RUNS CHANGE THE TIMING. AFTER THAT ALL INSTABILITY
WAS GONE AND THE FRONT WAS JUST ABOUT EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER
BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT THERE
ARE STILL DIFFERENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS INDICATE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY. THUS SATURDAY
WILL BE COOL AND DRY. MODELS MOVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND MOVE IT TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH TOWARDS OUR REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.  THE GFS AND HPC STILL KEEPS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DEPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WHILE
THE EURO AND LESSER EXTENT THE GEMNH MODELS MOVE IT QUICKLY NORTH
INTO OUR REGION.  FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.  THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING CHANCES OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...CUT LOWS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
RAISED MINS A LITTLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 230600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1103 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY DRY...AMID SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JEH
AVIATION...JP

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