Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 300237
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
935 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
BRING A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY|/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH THE MAIN STORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO
COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF A SFC TROUGH THAT
HAS PUSHED WELL INTO OHIO AS OF THIS WRITING. MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DEFORMATION FORCING ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN
ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY WORKING TOWARD THE EASTERN LAKES WILL REMAIN
ENE OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STILL COULD SEE
A STRAY SHOWER/FLURRY GIVEN LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPS IN
THE LOWEST 2 KFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE THE -10C LAYER SUGGEST
HOLDING WITH MIXED PRECIP (FLURRIES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) THE WAY TO GO
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

A MORE IMPRESSIVE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO BY 12Z FRI) IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. 925-850
MB FLOW VEERING TO NEAR 340 DEGREES IN TANDEM WITH LAKE MI-8H TEMP
DIFFERENTIALS PUSHING THE UPPER TEENS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE MI TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIALLY REACHING
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THIS TIME WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION/IMPACT ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...DRY/CLOUDY WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING GRADUAL BUILD IN OF LOW LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO THIN/BREAK UP STRATOCUMULUS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY BUT
RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS ON SATURDAY AS WEAK WAA/SW
FLOW COMMENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 356 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

ATTENTION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TURNS TO A
NORTHEAST PAC/NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MODELED TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST
(CLIPPER-ISH) TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...AND ITS AT LEAST PARTIAL LINK
UP WITH THE STJ (PARTIAL EJECTION FROM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
LINGERING NEAR BAJA CA). 12Z ECMWF/GFS ITERATIONS CAME IN A LITTLE
MORE AMPLIFIED/PHASED WITH WIDESPREAD/HEADLINE WORTHY SNOWS
STREAKING ACROSS INDIANA DURING THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID TRUST IN
THESE SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW GIVEN POOR SAMPLING AND NORMAL MODEL
FLIP FLOPPING/RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN SPLIT FLOW REGIMES.

GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER JET SUPPORT AND SOME REDUCED STABILITY
MODELED IN MID LEVELS SUGGEST A RATHER HEALTHY/DEEP FRONTAL
CIRCULATION IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MODEST MOIST ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
NOTED (1000-850 MB MIXING RATIOS INCREASING TO 3-4 G/KG).
DEFORMATION WITH THE UPPER WAVE WOULD THEN BRING LINGERING SNOWS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THESE LATEST
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT THERE COULD BE A BAND OF WARNING LEVEL SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES. SO...THIS BEARS
WATCHING. MAKE SURE TO CHECK FOR UPDATES AS THE FCST/AMOUNTS/TRACK
WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE. FOR NOW WILL BUMP UP POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT (GENERALLY 3-6" TOTALS IN THE GRIDS). IF A MORE NORTHERLY
SOLUTION VERIFIES A WINTRY MIX WOULD LIKELY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES LIMITING SNOW ACCUMS/RATIOS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS/CHANGES TO THE FCST NEXT WEEK AS A COLDER/POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WX REGIME LIKELY PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 935 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

EXTENSIVE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS 015-025 CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THESE CEILINGS EXTENDING WELL UPSTREAM INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING THESE CEILINGS TO LINGER TONIGHT.

SOME PASSING AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 300200Z
AS A LOWER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THROUGH. DOUBTFUL ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD OR PROLONGED IFR
RESTRICTIONS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...SO EXPECTING SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KTS AT TIMES
TONIGHT FROM 300-320 DEGREES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
NEAR TERM...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM....STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JAS

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