Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 031839
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STRENGTHENING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INDIANA
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
70S...AND LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. FURTHER OUT...A FRONT WILL MOVE
BACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPDATE...
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

A VERY BROAD WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THIS MORNING...BUT THEY
WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER TUE 18Z...COMPLETELY ENDING BY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S UNDER
SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WAS CAPTURED BEST
WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT...BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AFTER WED 06Z. SO POPS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AS CONVECTION FORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BETWEEN WED 12-18Z. AFTER THAT...CHANCES WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEAST. NONETHELESS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THU 00Z AS TRAILING UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...GENERALLY STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THEN LINGER IN
THE VICINITY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. UNCERTAINTIES
IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL END UP EACH DAY LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASH
OUT EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER AFTER 10Z WEDNESDAY.

STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE KIND/KBMG SITES AT THE
MOMENT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY VALID TIME. THESE
SITES ALSO ARE SEEING VARYING CEILINGS FROM MVFR TO VFR. KEPT MVFR
FOR AN HOUR OR SO...THEN ALLOWED THEM TO GO VFR. AT THE OTHER
SITES...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER BUT ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
IFR MAY DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50



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