Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 200815
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, and AVIATION
sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Warm temperatures will continue through the work week, with colder
weather arriving for the weekend. A front will bring rain chances
Tuesday, with a stronger frontal system bringing more rain Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Observing equipment show very low visibility this morning across the
southeast 2/3 of the forecast area. However, webcams show that the
1/4 mile or less visibilities are not necessarily impacting urban
areas yet.

Given recent trends of the lower visibilities moving north, will
expand the Dense Fog Advisory to the entire forecast area. This will
account for not only the lower visibility but also the rapidly
changing conditions for travelers. Will continue to mention that
rural areas will be the most impacted.

Since the fog is relatively shallow, it should burn off this
morning, allowing for sunshine this afternoon. This should allow
temperatures to get near the warmer of the MOS numbers, in the mid
60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday night/
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

A front will move into the area late tonight. Looks like
forcing/moisture won`t arrive until after midnight, so will keep the
evening dry. The better forcing/moisture really don`t arrive most
areas until Tuesday, so will go chance or lower PoPs for most of the
area.

An upper trough and the surface front will move across the area on
Tuesday. Forcing and moisture look sufficient for likely PoPs most
areas during the morning. As the system exits, PoPs will lower
during the afternoon, with a lingering chance into Tuesday evening
east.

Wednesday should be warm and dry with the area in between systems. A
surface low moving through the Great Lakes will bring a cold front
in on Wednesday night, but moisture and forcing are too limited for
any rain.

Went above MOS for highs in the west on Tuesday with that area
seeing more sun. Raised everywhere on Wednesday as guidance has been
too cool.

&&


.LONG TERM.../Thursday Through Sunday/
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Rain chances will return Thursday as a front returns north across
the area as a warm front. Better chances will arrive on Friday as a
strong cold front moves through and ends the Spring like
temperatures. With strong winds aloft and decent low level moisture
moving in, some strong to severe storms could accompany the front.

Northern areas could see some light wrap-around precipitation on
Saturday, otherwise dry conditions look to be the rule for the
weekend. Temperatures will be closer to average for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 200900Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 315 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Visibility continues to lower at KIND, so will continue this trend
in the forecast.

Previous discussion follows...

Sub-IFR restrictions overnight through mid morning Monday in fog and
low stratus with a return to VFR conditions for the afternoon and
evening.

Skies remain mostly clear over much of the region late this
evening...although lower stratus and fog beginning to expand from
the lower Wabash Valley. With the upper ridge axis just to the west
of the region and light flow over the area...solid setup in place
for fog to overspread the area gradually over the next several
hours. Presence of a developing sharp but shallow inversion near or
just below 1000ft will likely create greater impacts for aviation
interests from fog as opposed to the lower stratus. Visibilities
will tumble late tonight towards daybreak Monday with confidence
growing in visibilities lower than 1SM impacting all terminals.

INcreased mixing in the near surface layer will help to weaken and
eventually dissipate the inversion around midday with partly cloudy
skies returning. Clouds will increase Monday evening as a frontal
boundary approaches from the west. Rain showers should hold off at
all terminals until after 06Z Tuesday. Southeast winds will be
generally less than 10kts Monday afternoon...veering to southerly
Monday night.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...Ryan/50



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