Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 091637
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION PROVIDING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY FRIDAY EVENING ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES NEED TO BE INCREASED
BY ABOUT 2 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS PUTS THEM IN
LINE WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS FOR A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE FIRST FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH
SOILS BEGINNING TO DRY OUT FROM RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK...AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...CURRENT THINKING IS ANY FOG THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

OTHER THAN THAT...QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST
COUPLE DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN PLACE. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS FOR THURSDAY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AS NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS PERSIST.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...THE NEXT FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS
POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT
BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL
INDIANA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST FOR THIS TIME AND INCREASED CHANCES INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO RAMP UP ON FRIDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD BRINGING
FORECAST HIGHS A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...LOW 80S NORTH AND MID
TO UPPER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN AS LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THUS WILL HAVE TO CARRY SEVERAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM AS
THIS LOW SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS WELL
AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1228 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL U.S. HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SHOWING A LARGE CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPING WITH BASES OF 6K FEET TO 7K FEET AGL. THIS FIELD WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE UPPER 50S AT MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES OF
SURFACE DEW POINTS. THUS...WITH GENERALY CALM WINDS HAVE INCLUDED
SOME LIGHT FOG AT MOST SITES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THURSDAY FOR MORE VFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEE
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...DWM

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