Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211044
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
645 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK...REBOUNDING TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE UNTIL IT PASSES BY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH EXITS.

NOT MUCH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...BUT THESE ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME STAYING TOGETHER. RAPID REFRESH SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
TODAY.

WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT FEEL THAT WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ODDS ARE BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR
MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER OF THE MOS NUMBERS
WHICH PUTS HIGHS AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S...WITH WARMEST READINGS
NORTHWEST WHERE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUN IS EXPECTED. OF COURSE IF
CLOUDS BEHAVE OTHER THAN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
WEAK LIFT WITH THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. THUS WILL
GO DRY AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS. OVERALL THE NIGHT WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY
CLEAR THOUGH. MAV MOS LOOKS REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA ON FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A FEW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT.

GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUD WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ALOFT. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ALOFT AND WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY...SO
REMOVED ALL POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THE LONG TERM AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES NEXT FEW DAYS.  A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE STALLED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REST OF THE LONG TERM.

DURING THIS TIME WE WILL BE UNDER A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY MOVES ON TO THE EAST COAST.
GFS AND GEMNH MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER SPREADING PRECIPITATION
INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY. ALSO CAPES ARE QUITE LOW UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY...SO DOWNPLAYED MENTION OF THUNDER SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REST OF THE LONG
TERM WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEST AND NORTHWEST MONDAY.

TWEAKED SUPER BLEND MAX TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO SOME AREAS
FROM MONDAY ON...AS MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING CLOUDS A LITTLE WITH THE
FRONT STAYING TO OUR NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
MADE TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WILL GRADUALLY DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING. KBMG AND KHUF MAY
START OUT MVFR CEILINGS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING LATE TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

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