Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 100826

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
322 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 325 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017

A few snow showers will linger through this evening as an
associated upper low passes through the region, but additional
accumulations will be minimal. The best chances will be over the
northern counties where a quick inch of snow cannot be ruled out.
After dry conditions tomorrow, another quick upper low will bring
rain and snow showers to the northern counties early in the week.
Further out, additional upper waves will continue to rotate
through the area in the wake of the main upper trough. So, light
snow accumulations can be expected across the northern counties
once again from Wednesday night through Thursday. Meanwhile,
temperatures through the period will generally be below normal.


.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 1005 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017

On radar still seeing some very light snow showers over the
northeast counties from a lake effect band and some flurries
elsewhere over the eastern half or so of the area, and overcast
conditions remain over the eastern half to two thirds of the area as
well. Short range models continue to show all of this moving off to
the east by around 6z or so, with only perhaps a couple tenths of an
inch or so, if that, of accumulation possible in the aforementioned
lake band. Partial clearing moving west to east across the area
should allow temperatures to drop into the upper teens to lower 20s.
Wind gusts still sporadically around 18 to 28 mph but should drop
off after 6z as well if not before.


.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Tuesday/...

Issued at 325 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017

The main focus of the short term period will be rain/snow shower
chances with another upper wave on Monday and Tuesday.

First, dry conditions are expected to prevail for tomorrow, but
there are still low chances that a few flurries will be possible
on Sunday night as a surface trough moves through central Indiana.
The lack of moisture though will result in low confidence and thus
no mention in the forecast.

Attention then turns toward the next approaching upper low. This
will be another quick clipper like system that will bring chances
for rain and snow showers to the northern counties from Monday
through Tuesday morning. However, no snow accumulations are
expected, and temperatures will increase to near normal on Monday.
When the reinforcing surge of cold air enters the area on
Tuesday, most of the moisture will have already exited central

As mentioned above, a brief warm-up near normal can be expected on
Monday, but highs will only top off in the upper 20s/low 30s for
Tuesday. Meanwhile, overnight lows will be in the 20s on Sunday
and Monday nights, then plummet into the teens for Tuesday night.


.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 221 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

Ensembles in good agreement on the upcoming weather pattern later
this week. A deep long wave trough is expected to move off to the
east late this week, with upper flow becoming more zonal by the
end of the week.

Only item of interest during this period will be a weak
disturbance that is expected to move through the area during the
Wednesday to Thursday time frame. Will go with small chance PoPs
for light snow or light mixed precipitation from Wednesday through
Thursday night to cover this feature.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 100900Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 322 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

Lower cloud cover has moved east of the KIND terminal, so have
adjusted the cloud forecast based on this. Have also backed the wind
forecast for the rest of the pre dawn hours based on current

Previous discussion follows.

VFR through the period. The MVFR ceilings have moved off to the
east and most wind gusts are subsiding. Winds will back from
northwest to southwest by the morning. Wind gusts to around 20 kts
will again pick up after around 16z and last through the
afternoon. No restrictions to visibilities expected.




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