Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 262253 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
653 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A cold front and weak low pressure system will move through the
area overnight, bringing showers and a few rumbles of thunder to
the area. High pressure will build in tomorrow, bringing a return
to dry weather through the early part of the weekend. A weak
disturbance aloft may bring showers to the area late this weekend,
but the majority of the next week will be dry.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 649 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Raised pops to likely over areas near and northwest of Sullivan
per radar trends.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Broken band of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move
through the area mainly late this afternoon into the early
overnight. A few showers may linger late tonight but thunder
threat will likely end.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable with only minor tweaks.
Temperatures should be steady particularly early ahead of the


.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Expansive post frontal cloud cover can be expected through at
least midday Thursday as ample low level moisture persists under a
substantial post frontal inversion.

Dry weather will persist through the remainder of the short term
under the influence of broad surface high pressure.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable, with minor downward
tweaks to max temps to account for increased cloud cover on


.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The models agree on the fundamentals. Westerly flow in the upper
atmosphere will result in mostly dry mild weather for Indiana. There
are discrepancies in details with weak waves aloft and weak surface

There is strong confidence the regional intialization, which will be
used for this package, will catch the main trends. Within that,
today`s forecast may by off by 2-4 degrees with temperatures and
5-15 percent with POPs.


.AVIATION (Discussion for 262100Z TAFs)...
Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Updated current conditions and moved up the timing of the arrival of
rain at KLAF to the top of the hour. Made no changes yet to KHUF and
KBMG but will continue to monitor development of convective line
across Illinois. If this holds together will be adding tempo -TSRA
to KHUF and possible KBMG within the next couple of hours. Previous
discussion follows...

The period will begin with VFR. Widespread showers will develop
early tonight as a low pressure system approaches. The low should
cross Indiana 03Z-09Z, ending the showers but causing ceilings to
become mostly MVFR with areas of IFR. Visibilities are forecast
to continue mainly VFR.

Winds should slowly veer from south to the northwest through the
period as the low tracks past. Expect speeds near 10 knots.




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