Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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888
FXUS63 KIND 160000
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
700 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS and NEAR TERM Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 700 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

A low pressure system originating in the Southern Plains will be the
main focus early in the forecast period. Moisture will be limited
tonight though with just scattered light showers early and a slight
chance across the northern counties for freezing rain for a few
hours late. Rain showers will then increase across the forecast area
tomorrow from west to east. Increased forcing could also result in
some isolated thunderstorms on Monday night. As the system pushes
farther east, dry conditions will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday.
Further out, three separate systems will approach from the
southwest, bringing periodic rain chances late in the week and next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 700 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

With light echoes from Illinois holding together as they`re moving
into Indiana and HRRR indicating these will continue through about
4z, added some isolated to scattered light showers for the next few
hours across the area. Looks like temperatures will hold pretty
steady during this time so expect rain for the most part with most
temps across the area running 32 to 35 and even warmer south. Rest
of forecast unadjusted. Previous discussion follows...

The main focus of the near term period will be precipitation
chances.

Current radar mosaic is showing some weak returns over the
southern portions of central Indiana which should linger into the
evening hours. Precipitation will generally be in the form of rain
until late tonight when some freezing rain could mix in across the
northern counties. However, latest models are trending toward a
bit of a lull late this evening and most of tonight. As a result,
trended toward a dry forecast over most of the forecast area. The
only caveat will be that rain/freezing rain mix for a few hours
late in the night across the far northern counties.

Overnight lows will range from the low 30s (north) to upper 30s
(south), generally stuck close to a model blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...

Issued at 242 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

The main focus of the short term period will be a low pressure
system approaching from the southwest.  Originating in the Southern
Plains, this system will track through the Missouri Valley on
Monday, advecting much warmer air ahead of it.  Temperatures will
soar above normal on Monday and Tuesday with highs topping off in
the mid to upper 50s across portions of Central Indiana.

Isentropic lift with aforementioned system strengthens most during
the Tue 00-12Z time frame.  As a result, will mention isolated
thunderstorms during that period which coincides with SPC`s day two
convective outlook.

Rain showers will linger through Tuesday and across the northern
sections of central Indiana on Tuesday night.  However, thunderstorm
threat will have ended by then as low pushes farther into the Lower
Great Lakes Region.  A wintry mix will be possible briefly on
Tuesday night across the northeastern counties on the tail end of
the system, but moisture will be limited by that point.  So, no
accumulations are expected.

Further out, GFS and Euro start to differ on day 4.  The GFS is
trending toward a moisture deprived upper low, while the Euro is
showing high pressure.  Either way, will trend toward a dry forecast
for Wednesday.  Temperatures by Wednesday will be a tad cooler with
highs in the low to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

Models consistent in dry weather through at least Thursday morning
as an upper ridge moves over the area. Then, three straight
southwest systems will bring warm weather and periodic rain shower
chances to the area late this week and weekend. The ECMWF has been
running the quickest east with these systems compared to the GFS.
Regional blend goes along better with a slower solution that is also
preferred by WPC. So, will go with that. Highs could reach 60
degrees or so next week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 160000z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 556 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

Some spotty shower activity could be seen at the sites especially
in the next couple of hours, but the main impact to operations
will be the ceilings. These are expected to stay low in the case
of KBMG where 600 ft are already in place, and to drop everywhere
else where MVFR to VFR is currently the rule. Should see them drop
to around 300 ft everywhere during the overnight hours, with
mainly MVFR visibilities with some good low level moisture but
still some boundary layer mixing to keep vsbys from getting too
low. Little improvement is expected through the day on Monday to
ceilings with them just bouncing between low and high IFR. Monday
afternoon/evening rain chances will pick up as a low pressure
system approaches from the plains.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD/CP
NEAR TERM...TDUD/CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP



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