Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 161945
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
345 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS WORKING INTO THE AREA QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ON A MORE CELLULAR/DIURNAL LOOK ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LAST SEVERAL HOURS...SO EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR NO LATER THAN THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN THAT SOME LOWER
CLOUDS COULD REFORM TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS
IN PLACE...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH STEADY CLEARING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS THE REMAINING ISSUE OF NOTE.

UPSTREAM NUMBERS SUGGEST CONSENSUS IS A BIT TOO WARM...AND MOS BLEND
CLOSER TO REALITY WITH NUMBERS LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE AREA...NEARER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DEWPOINTS...SAVE FOR UPPER 40S
IN THE METRO DUE TO URBAN EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM...LEAVING TEMPERATURES AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE.

EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT AND GOOD SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES...FEEL THE MOS BLEND IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH
WARMING DURING THE DAY AND HAVE TEMPERED THESE NUMBERS BACK A BIT
TOWARD THE CONSENSUS. MOS BLEND LOOKS BEST AT THE COOL END DURING
THE OVERNIGHTS GIVEN THE GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST...PROVIDING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE ON THE LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIG AN UPPER TROUGH EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
IS NOT ONLY QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED.
SHOWERS AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND
INITIALIZATION AS IT SEEMED TO HANDLE THE SITUATION REASONABLY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN AS WE BEGIN THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS LAF...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED AND RISEN ENOUGH TO WARRANT VFR
CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BY 2100Z. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATES WITH CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE ADDITIONAL FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KEEPING WITH CURRENT FORECAST
OF MOST SITES GETTING DOWN TO 3SM...4SM AT IND. BE ADVISED THAT
IFR AND EVEN LIFR VSBYS COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT LAF AND
BMG. FOG IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER BY 1200 TO 1300Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MRD

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