Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221747
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1247 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

A cold front could bring some rain to parts of Friday night,
otherwise high pressure will keep central Indiana dry through the
next week. Temperatures will bounce around from below normal to
around normal readings.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Early this morning, an area of stratocumulus was working south into
the forecast area. The clouds extend well north into Michigan.
However, some erosion has been seen on the western edge.

The clouds should continue to move south before sunrise, mainly
across the eastern forecast area. Then, as flow becomes more
westerly during the day, the clouds will get pushed off to the east.

Will continue to watch clouds prior to issuance time, but plan to
keep skies mostly cloudy in the northeast and perhaps east before
12Z and use a pre-first period in the text product. Otherwise will
go partly cloudy east and mostly sunny west today.

The blend looks reasonable for high temperatures, which will be
below normal once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday night/
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Mid and high clouds will increase tonight across the area as an
upper trough moves through. Forcing is weak, and the lower levels
remain dry, so no precipitation is expected.

On Thanksgiving, a surface front will wash out in the area as
heights rise aloft behind the departing upper trough. Thus expect
nothing more than some clouds with it.

High pressure will then build in again and keep the area dry through
the day Friday.

Friday night, another cold front and upper trough will move through.
This could squeeze out some light rain, mainly across the north.
Will keep the blend`s low PoPs then.

Temperatures will moderate through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...

Issued at 1248 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

There is good model agreement and high confidence in the forecast
through Monday night. The weather should stay dry. Possible
temperature errors are 3 degrees or less.

Forecast confidence plummets starting Tuesday.  The American and
European models have different handling of a large weather system
over eastern North America. The American model brings in both cold
air and rain chances much faster.

While the consensus is still the best forecast in such situations,
possible temperature errors for Tuesday though Wednesday are 6
degrees. Possible POP errors for the same period are 10-20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 22/1800Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1225 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions currently continue across all TAF sites and look to
mostly continue through the period. However, the developing CU
field over IND has ceilings that have fluctuated between
2800-3100ft. There is a possibility that conditions could hit
MVFR as the coverage thickens and ceiling levels remain around
3000ft through the early afternoon hours. Most of the other TAF
sites are SKC or FEW around 3000ft. Winds remain generally out of
the NNW at up to 8 knots.

Expect the CU field to diminish by late afternoon and winds become
light and variable. A mid/upper-level cloud deck looks to move
over the TAF sites around 23/00Z tonight into Thursday. Southwest
winds at up to 8 knots will return Thursday morning.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JK



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