Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 012025
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

A POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT BLASTING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY
TONIGHT...BUT SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO MAKE THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
CARRY SOME LOW POPS HERE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. ASIDE FROM THAT...SIMPLY EXPECTING A STEADY INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS MID 50S NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S
SOUTHWEST AS A GOOD STARTING POINT...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
UPSTREAM NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS LIKELY TO BE NO MORE
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH THE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION NEARER THE FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY TOMORROW EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...ACCOMPANIED BY
A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THUS EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR DAY 2...AND THIS IS REASONABLE. ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST AT THIS POINT WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR
BUT WEAK INSTABILITY. WILL HAVE TO CARRY A THUNDER MENTION INTO
EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING IT ALTOGETHER PER SREF POST PROCESSED
THUNDER PROBABILITIES. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE POTENT UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME THE MAIN STORY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
AFTER REACHING MAXES SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT APPEAR LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY STRUGGLING ONLY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. CERTAINLY A RUDE
AWAKENING TO THE CHANGING OF THE SEASONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
WHO HAVE ENJOYED THE RECENT MILD AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
AROUND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL GO WITH AND/OR CONTINUE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES. LONG RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST
SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER FOR NOW LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER BASED ON VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING
MECHANISMS. ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION SEEMED REASONABLE AND ONLY
NEEDED TO MAKE MINOR MODIFICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 012100Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

FEW TO SCATTERED CU AROUND 7 KFT SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET LEAVING ONLY SOME CIRRUS OVER THE SITES EARLY TONIGHT. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KT. INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MENTIONED VCSH 16-18Z THU FOR ALL THE TAF SITES
SAVE FOR KBMG.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/CP

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