Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 300831
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
431 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP FREQUENT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE BY THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPPER IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY TRIGGERING SOME CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA. THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE PRE-TODAY PERIOD...BUT SOME OF IT MAY LINGER IN THE EAST AT THE
START OF THAT PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THAT AREA WILL HAVE
THE BEST INSTABILITY.

NOT CONVINCED THAT RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR LIKELY
POPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORCING.

GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE WENT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS TODAY. A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL TEMPERATURES IS SIMILAR TO THE MAV MOS AND LOOKS GOOD GIVEN
EXPECTED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MOST
MODELS ARE SIMILAR SO USED A BLEND.

FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WENT CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WENT DRY ALL BUT FAR SOUTH
AFTER 06Z WITH FRONT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND LESSENING INSTABILITY.

A WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 850 JET REMAINS FOCUSED OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WORKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THUS TRENDED POPS BACK AND FOCUSED THEM ON THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. REMOVED POPS FAR NORTH WITH A
DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING.

ON THURSDAY THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE FRONT WILL END UP.
MOST MODELS ARE PRETTY DRY FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AM HESITANT
TO REMOVE TOO MUCH OF THE POPS AND THEN FLIP-FLOP WITH LATER
FORECASTS. FOR NOW LOWERED POPS ON THURSDAY AND WENT DRY FAR NORTH.

WENT DRY MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND NEXT UPPER WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

REALLY NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WET PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. A VERY TROUGHY PATTERN WILL SET UP FROM CANADA AND REACH
DOWN TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AND ONCE AGAIN...A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND ALLOW
THIS ON/OFF RAINY AND STORMY PATTERN TO PERSIST. NO REAL SOAKING
RAINS DUE TO A LACK OF GULF MOISTURE AND GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF
COOLER AIR...CONTINUE TO TREND TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO CAPTURE THIS PATTERN VERY WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

0825Z UPDATE...PUSHED BACK TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO LATER THIS
MORNING AND ADDED VCSH BASED ON ACTIVITY UPSTREAM. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SMALL BRIEF SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTHEAST ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS AND JUST NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER..CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT BRIEFLY AT IND OR BMG IF OR SHOWER CAN BE RELIABLY
PEGGED AT ISSUANCE TIME.

OTHERWISE...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER...PER THE HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH...AS THE CONVECTION PIVOTS SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME. WILL GO WITH A TWO HOUR TEMPO GROUP SHOWER GROUP TO
CAPTURE THAT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THOUGH AS INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOW AT THAT TIME.

FINALLY...RE-DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF LAF AT 00Z WEDNESDAY
AND NEAR IND AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH PROB30 TEMPO THUNDER
GROUPS AFTER 16Z TO HANDLE THAT.

LAF ALREADY SAW IFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY THIS EVENING...AND
WITH MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS...MOS AND SREF SUGGESTING DETERIORATING
FLYING CONDITIONS...WILL GO WITH AT LEAST LOW END MVFR OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/MK

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