Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 241811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
211 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM sections have been
updated below.


Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

High pressure will keep it cool and mostly dry through the middle of
next week. There is a small chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon
and evening, however as an upper trough moves through. An
increasingly warmer and moist southerly flow and an approaching cold
front will result in warmer temperatures and thunderstorm chances
starting Wednesday night.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

The diurnal cu will dissipate after 9 pm and leave behind mostly
clear skies. Gusty west winds will drop off to 5 knots or less
overnight. This should allow temperatures to drop all the way to the
lower and middle 50s overnight per the blend.


.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Main focus for the short term will be on temperatures, cloud cover
and timing and coverage of any convection.

A cold front will sweep southeast across central Indiana on Sunday
as an upper trough pivots across the Great Lakes. However, with
moisture limited to a shallow layer around 850 millibars, do not
think there will be anything more than a scattered to broken diurnal
cu deck. High pressure and sunset will then allow for clearing
Sunday night. Then, a stronger upper trough will pivot across the
Great Lakes Monday afternoon and night. This may be enough to spark
some afternoon and evening convection. Models were hinting at weak
instability but enough to warrant thunder mention. Only slightly
deeper moisture would suggest no more than isolated activity.

Surface high pressure will build in and strengthen over the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday. This should allow clearing skies Monday night. Cu
development progs indicate little diurnal cu potential on Tuesday
and with moisture become more shallow and subsidence over the area,
look for mostly sunny or sunny skies.

Regional blend temperatures in pretty good agreement and look
reasonable given low level thermal progs and plenty of daytime sun
and little nighttime cloud cover.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Temperatures will be back near seasonal normals and the pattern may
once again turn active mid week onward as flow aloft becomes more
zonal with multiple weak disturbances and a surface frontal system
poised to move into the region late in the week.

Consensus initialization handled things well with few tweaks


.AVIATION (Discussion for 241500Z IND TAF Update)...
Issued at 1156 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Good confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Satellite
was showing developing diurnal cu deck with bases around 3500 feet.
Cu development progs suggest broken ceilings are possible. The cu
should dissipate after 01z as the sun sets and leave behind passing
cirrus. More diurnal VFR cu likely after 15z Sunday as well.

Winds will be west to around 12 knots this afternoon and drop off to
4 to 8 knots after 01z. Winds will increase a touch after 15z Sunday
to around 10 knots.





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