Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 030815
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
315 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, and AVIATION sections have
been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

An upper level system will bring some precipitation to the area late
tonight into Sunday. Another system will bring rain early next
week. Much colder air will move in mid week and could bring some
snow with it. Below normal temperatures will then continue into next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Today/
Issued at 315 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

Stubborn low level clouds continue across the forecast area and
across much of the region early this morning. Models are trying to
scatter the clouds quickly this morning, with some of the short term
models even clearing things out now, which isn`t happening.

Model soundings show an inversion developing again this afternoon,
so if the clouds do not scatter out, they will be trapped again.

Thus am pessimistic at the odds of substantial clearing occurring
today. Besides, mid and high level clouds will start to increase
ahead of the next system.

Will thus go with a pessimistic forecast and keep skies mostly
cloudy today.

With the expected cloud cover, went closer to or even below the
cooler of the MOS numbers for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday night/
Issued at 315 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization
was accepted, unless noted below.

This evening should remain dry with little or no forcing
around. Isentropic lift then increases overnight.

It should take a while for the atmosphere to moisten up
enough for precipitation to get to the ground. Went slight
chance to low chance category PoPs by late tonight across the
southwest forecast area.

Forcing increases during the day Sunday as the upper trough moves
in. An inverted surface trough will be to our south with another
surface trough off to the northwest. An upper jet will be overhead.

Feel that there will be enough forcing and moisture to at measure
at least some light QPF across much of the area on Sunday, so went
likely PoPs many areas by Sunday afternoon. This is a little higher
than the initialization, but the outlier drier NAM is bringing the
initialization down.

Forcing will quickly exit the area, so only went slight chance PoPs
far east Sunday evening. Monday will then be dry across all but the
far south, then precipitation chances increase south to north Monday
night with the approach of the next system.

As for precipitation type, temperatures will be cold enough for snow
late tonight, then readings will warm enough for mainly a mix of
rain and snow Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon should see rain all
areas, but it may be borderline across the far northwest based on
forecast soundings. For Monday into Monday night, temperatures will
be warm enough for just rain for most of the period (a brief mix of
rain and snow is possible north early).

Any snow accumulation late tonight into Sunday morning will be less
than an inch, and mainly confined to the far west and northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday night into Friday/...

Issued at 209 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

First system clears the area Sunday evening but residual
cloudiness will linger, keeping Monday min temps just above
freezing.

Tranquil day Monday as high pressure moves across the region and
brings a few periods of sunshine, allowing max temperatures to
reach the lower and middle 40s again.

Models all indicate upper closed low over Mexico lifting out
across SW Gulf and into the Ohio Valley Tuesday. Warming in
advance of this system keeps this a rain system for our area and
precipitation exits before turning cold enough to snow.

From Tuesday on, models diverge on solutions, at least with
regard to precipitation amounts and timing, as well as arrival
time of arctic air. Have stayed with blend of models,
precipitation arriving Wednesday afternoon, as rain, with
temperatures in the upper 30s. Arctic air begins filtering in
Wednesday night and rain transitions to snow in the wrap-around with
some accumulation probable, depending on strength of this system
as it pulls away. Snow showers continue throughout the day
Thursday into Thursday evening with additional light snow
accumulations again. Thursday temperatures should be steady or
slowly falling through the 20s while Friday max temps remain in
the 20s. Wind chills in the single digits are expected Friday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 030900Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

No significant changes needed to the KIND TAF.

Previous discussion follows...

It is still a close call as to whether a persistent stratocu deck
will be MVFR or VFR through 18z or so. The GFS LAMP hinted at tempo
MVFR through the overnight and early afternoon. However, decided to
go with all VFR based on latest trends. Will amend as needed. After
18z, confidence is much higher in VFR.

Winds will be west and northwest 4 knots or less through the TAF
period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...MK/50


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