Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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668
FXUS63 KIND 071721
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1221 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

AFTER A MILD AND DRY DAY TODAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING SNOW AND COLDER CONDITIONS. BY MID
WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE...BUT MOST SNOW CHANCES
WILL HAVE ENDED. A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
OCCUR INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH WARM ADVECTION AND RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPS
JUMPING QUICKLY SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST
LOCATIONS ALREADY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS OF
15Z.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. EXPECT A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SKIES
WILL BECOME MAINLY CLOUDY BY LATE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
SEE A SPRINKLE PRIOR TO 00Z AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
STATE...BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND LIFT THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

LOW LEVEL THERMALS SUPPORT TEMPS NEAR 50 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY. ENJOY...AS THIS WILL EASILY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE NEXT WEEK BY AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND UNLESS NOTED BELOW.

BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES THIS EVENING FOR THE FRONT...BUT BY
THEN IT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. WENT LOW CHANCE
POPS SOUTHEAST TO DRY FAR NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...POPS WILL LOWER EAST AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS...BUT POPS
WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
AND SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN. AS TEMPERATURES COOL
OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. LITTLE QPF
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THOUGH.

ON MONDAY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN...WITH A NICE GRADIENT
SEEN IN 850MB TEMPERATURES MOVING IN DURING THE MORNING. SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS INCREASING DURING THE
MORNING AND THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. BUMPED UP MODEL POPS
WENT WENT LIKELY ALL AREAS.

SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO HAVE IMPACT ON TRAVEL DURING MONDAY...BUT INDY
AREA MAY GET LUCKY AND SEE THE MAIN IMPACTS MOVE IN AFTER RUSH HOUR.
WILL NOT GET CUTE THOUGH WHEN MENTIONING IMPACT TIMING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SINCE TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE AS THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE AREA AND WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE NORTHEAST. WENT LIKELY POPS NORTHEAST
2/3 OF THE AREA. WENT HIGHER THAN MODEL POPS SINCE THE COLDER AIR
SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT LINGERING MOISTURE.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY FAR ENOUGH TO
GO CHANCE POPS OR LOWER.

THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE LOW QPF WITH NO STRONG FETCH OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...WITH SNOW RATIOS INCREASING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES
IN...TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO PERHAPS 3 INCHES LOOK
FEASIBLE.

GENERALLY STAYED WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BACK PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY. A FEW LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
AFTER THAT...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER ALLOWING DRY
AND CONTINUED COLD WEATHER TO DOMINATE.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS GOOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SNOW PACK AND SOME CLEARING. COULD SEE BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE REST OF
THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1206 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...AND IT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR
ENTERS THE TAF SITES. AT THAT POINT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR CATEGORY AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP. MVFR WILL BE
THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FROM MON 12Z THROUGH END OF TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6 TO 12 KTS...GUSTING UP TO
25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD



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