000
FXUS63 KIND 100655
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF WARM AIR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MILD
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S BOTH DAYS. THEN...THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO WINTER AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MARCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
RESULT WILL BE RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN
JUST SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

THIS RETURN OF WINTER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN DROPS SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN STATES ALLOWING A RETURN TO A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S
ON FRIDAY. FINALLY...A ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A CHANCE
OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE A BIG WARMUP.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE ABOVE AND ALSO THAT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS BOTH AGREE ON A WEAKENING INVERSION AROUND 925 MILLIBARS
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO MIX DOWN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY ACROSS
THE OZARKS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 00Z MOS NUMBERS LOOK GOOD FOR
HIGHS TODAY. MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

THE LOOMING WINTER STORM WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED
AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TRACK OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THEY MOVE IT ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SAVE THE 00Z GEM
WHICH HAD A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. THE 00Z GEM AND 00Z
GFS...ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE SIMILAR 00Z NAM OR ECMWF. THE 00Z GFS
WAS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER...HOWEVER...AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
WAS IN THE MIDDLE. SO...PREFER A BLEND OF THE FASTER AND SLOWER
MODELS AND A NON-GEM TRACK.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOME
INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY AS
A FRONT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE CENTER. WITH THE FRONT DROPPING ACROSS
THE AREA...THERE SHOULD BE A PRETTY DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. SO...PREFER AT OR BELOW 00Z MOS TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND AT OR ABOVE MOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONES.
MEANWHILE...WITH CLOUDS AROUND...PREFER THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
TONIGHT.

USING A MODEL BLEND...THE CENTER OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT 06Z
WEDNESDAY...LEXINGTON...KENTUCKY AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AT 18Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
OVERRUNNING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF AND NAM AGREE
WITH THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE THE GFS
AND SREF WERE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AND LOW
TRACK. THE GEM WAS IN BETWEEN. PREFER THE QPF MAX TO BE SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN PER ALLBLEND. AT ANY RATE...WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 3 TO 5
G/KG...THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. 12Z 850 MILLIBAR NEGATIVE DEGREE ISOTHERM SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN THIRD.

BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET TOWARD WEDNESDAY DAYBREAK AND INTO WEDNESDAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW MOVES BY. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP
IT TO JUST RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NOW...AND ADJUST IF NEEDED...AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.

ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER IS HOW WARM THE GROUND WILL BE AND THE
EFFECT OF THAT ON HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES...REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH
FALLS. WITH THAT IN MIND...PREFER TO TRIM SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT TO 1 TO
2 INCHES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR WITH 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN TIER.

MODEL BLEND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE WAY TO GO WITH THIS SYSTEM
DUE TO THE MODELS TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALOFT...HOWEVER AS
THE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF INDIANA BY THURSDAY STRONGER WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

BY SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF AND GFS BOTH EJECT AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE SOME POPS AT THAT TIME...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON DAY7.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100600Z TAF/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
TENNESSEE WHILE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.

EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID CLOUDS AT TIMES
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.

THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY AS MODELS INDICATE A 50 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 2 THOUSAND FEET ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. WILL
MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KLAF. HOWEVER WIND SHEAR WILL BE A
LITTLE LESS AT KIND AND KHUF AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THOSE
TAFS FOR NOW.

ONCE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND UP TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM ABOUT
15Z TO 24Z.  MODELS INDICATE A LESSENING OF THE WIND BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH WINDS OF 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...JH/CP

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