Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIND 031444
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1044 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN FLATTEN
OUT SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH LABOR DAY AND THEN MODERATE SOME BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AND WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT
IN ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER KENTUCKY. WARM SW FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS FOUND ACROSS MICHIGAN...DIVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD OHIO.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WITH
STRONG RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WILL TREND
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS...WILL TREND TOWARD A PERSISTENCE
TYPE FORECAST WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SCT TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS SHOWING REACHABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITH SOME CAPE AVAILABLE. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES
THAT WELL...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MORE OF THE SAME WILL OCCUR FRIDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR
WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STILL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN OHIO.  TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY
WILL BE TODAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS VERY STAGNANT.  WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS
OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OTHER SECTIONS AND
PERHAPS COMPLETELY DRY FAR SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL BE MORE CAPPED.

A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT MODELS HINT THAT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE A LITTLE LESS.  BUT THESE CHANGES WILL BE
VERY MINOR.  ONCE AGAIN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S
OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPCOMING PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD. A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SERVE TO
FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD HELP TO BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY RANGE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FRONT IN THE AREA.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD START TO COOL OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS LOWER WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 031500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO IND TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PATCHY IFR RESTRICITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY
IN THE KHUF/KBMG AREAS WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUD HAS BEEN LARGELY ABSENT
OVERNIGHT...UNTIL ABOUT 031300Z.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AFTER 031800Z AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO...BUT APPEARS
THE BETTER THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASES AROUND 030.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME 250-280 DEGREES AT 6-9
KTS BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.