Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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210
FXUS63 KIND 130818
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
318 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

WE WILL TRANSITION FROM A COLD PATTERN TO MILD PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO...EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND MOVES ON TO THE EAST AND IS REPLACED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.

IN NEAR TERM...A CLIPPER WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EASTWARD.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS
UP SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
A LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW TO MOST AREAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.   THEN A COUPLE OF
OTHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR SNOW MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A CHANCE OF RAIN BY DAY 7.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

GOING FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY
GRIDS BUT OTHERWISE WE ARE ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END OVER
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE EAST OF A
FRANKFORT TO INDIANAPOLIS AND SHELBYVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT AND SOME AREAS
EARLY SATURDAY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN PRODUCES
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHILE LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION OCCURS ELSEWHERE.

OTHER ISSUES TONIGHT WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND
CHILLS OF AROUND 10 BELOW LATE TONIGHT.   RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST...OTHERWISE STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 20 FAR SOUTH WHICH WAS NEAR A MOS BLEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY MORNING WILL BUILD TO NORTHERN INDIANA LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SNOW CHANCES AND ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS A COULD OF SYSTEMS MOVE OUR WAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
EVENING WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AS A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVE OUR WAY.  WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION
TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.  STARTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS AFTER 09Z SUNDAY AND ELSEWHERE HAD POPS INCREASING
TO LIKLEY`S DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MODELS INDICATE ONE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CAUSES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT.   MOST OF OUR WEATHER WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY END FROM
MONDAY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.  BUT WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES
ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS INDICATE SOME WARMING BY MONDAY...BUT GFS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM AND WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM ON MONDAY.   BUT THIS WARMING MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OR LOW CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
EXPANSION OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A THAW FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN A TRAILING CLIPPER TO SWING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
SYSTEM. DISCREPANCIES REMAIN IN STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCING A STRONGER
AND FURTHER NORTH TRACK TO THE WAVE. RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGESTIVE
THAT WARMTH IS BEING OVERDONE...AND THIS IS LIKELY NOT EVEN TAKING
INTO CONSIDERATION THE POTENTIAL IMPACT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WOULD HAVE. HAVE GONE COOLER
THAN SUPERBLEND AS A RESULT AND LIMITED ANY MIXING WITH RAIN ON
TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN SOME AREAS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO A PROGRESSIVELY WARMER REGIME AS BROAD
RIDGING ALOFT EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING WIND AND CHANCES OF RAIN TO
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 30S ON
WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 50S OVER ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY
FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY MAKE A RUN AT 60 DEGREES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 130900Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.

06Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MOISTURE FLOWING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN SOME CLOUD
COVER BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE KLAF/KIND VICINITY.

SURFACE WINDS 300-330 DEGREES AT 10-15 KTS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT DIMINISHING TREND AFTER SUNRISE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. OCCASIONAL SURFACE GUSTS 18-20 KTS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JAS/RYAN



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