Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 021432
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1032 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A FRONT COMBINED WITH UPPER WAVES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW AVERAGE BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE FOR A WAVE MOVING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF TONIGHT. REALLY DID NOT NEED TO
STRAY FAR FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ONLY NEEDED TO MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS BASED ON TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY.
SOME MODELS TRY TO BRING CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE FEEL THAT THIS IS OVERDONE.

THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WITH SUNSHINE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NICELY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FOCUS REMAINS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB WINDS INCREASE
AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FORCING AND MOISTURE. CURRENT TIMING PUTS
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z.

WILL KEEP THE EVENING DRY AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS
OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...SO WILL GO WITH HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THERE WITH
LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WILL KEEP THE FAR SOUTH DRY BASED
ON THE EXPECTED TIMING.

FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE DIURNAL
TREND OF POPS BEING LOWEST IN THE MORNING...WILL GO ONLY LOW POPS IN
THE EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH WHILE ENDING THEM ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH. KEPT THE POPS LOW BECAUSE OVERALL FORCING WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF THE 850MB JET.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEN IT
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GO DRY
OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME CONVECTION SNEAKING BACK NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK...BUT CANNOT
REALLY ARGUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF A DRY FORECAST THEN.

AS THE FRONT RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT BROUGHT POPS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESIDE OVER QUEBEC FOR DURATION
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT
LOW...PERIODICALLY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD
LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SINCE THE SHORT WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT
PRECIPITATION IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED FORCING...WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THE LIKELY POPS.

A MUCH WEAKER WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT DYNAMICS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE. AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW PUSHES
FARTHER EAST AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 021500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SCT CU ARE EXPECTED. ONGOING
FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 02/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD DESPITE
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT KLAF AND KIND LATE IN TAF PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT
FRONT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT KHUF AND KBMG TO BE AFFECTED. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 TO 12 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP



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