Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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248
FXUS63 KIND 210709
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
309 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK...REBOUNDING TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE UNTIL IT PASSES BY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH EXITS.

NOT MUCH LIFT WITH THE TROUGH. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...BUT THESE ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME STAYING TOGETHER. RAPID REFRESH SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS
TODAY.

WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT FEEL THAT WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ODDS ARE BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR
MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL...ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER OF THE MOS NUMBERS
WHICH PUTS HIGHS AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S...WITH WARMEST READINGS
NORTHWEST WHERE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUN IS EXPECTED. OF COURSE IF
CLOUDS BEHAVE OTHER THAN EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT
A BLEND WAS USED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME
WEAK LIFT WITH THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. THUS WILL
GO DRY AND ADD A FEW CLOUDS. OVERALL THE NIGHT WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY
CLEAR THOUGH. MAV MOS LOOKS REASONABLE MOST AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA ON FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A FEW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT.

GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUD WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ALOFT. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ALOFT AND WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY...SO
REMOVED ALL POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL MODEL WILL BE ACCEPTED.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY
THE THERMAL FIELDS...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON SMALL SCALE FEATURES...WHICH WILL HAVE
A MAJOR IMPACT IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION...WHICH IN TURN
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

THESE ISSUES BECOME EVIDENT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS BOTH GRADUALLY DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER THE TIMING IS JUST
DIFFERENT ENOUGH TO MAKE A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PEOPLE WILL
EXPERIENCE AT ANY ONE TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 210600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE MOVING INTO ALL SITES BUT KLAF OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO IF THEY HAVEN/T ARRIVED ALREADY BY ISSUANCE TIME. THESE
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE MORNING...AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A FEW HOURS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SITES AS WELL. THUS INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CEILINGS AT KBMG
AND KHUF BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT KIND AS IT MAY BE
NORTH ENOUGH TO STAY OUT OF THE IFR. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHERLY
AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND THIS MIXING ALONG WITH THE
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH SHOULD KEEP ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY MORNING AND BE
WESTERLY AND LIGHT THURSDAY EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER AND
CEILINGS RISE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH NO RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING OR SO ON AT ANY OF THE SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...CP/JH

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