Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 231945
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
245 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated
below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

With the exception of a few sprinkles Friday night with a cold
front...dry and seasonable weather is expected through early next
week across the Ohio Valley. Another cold front will bring the
next threat for precipitation for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Mid level clouds associated with the wave aloft that passed through
the region this morning have now largely departed central Indiana...
leaving skies sunny and bright for Thanksgiving afternoon.
Temperatures have responded this afternoon to the sunshine...with
the entire forecast area in the low and mid 40s as of 18Z.

Quiet rest of the holiday expected across the Ohio Valley as a surface
high pressure ridge centered just off to the southeast serves as the
dominant influence. Skies will remain clear through the overnight
with southerly flow steadily strengthening prior to daybreak as
the surface pressure gradient tightens late.

Temps...lighter surface flow initially should enable temperatures
to drop off fairly easily with most locations falling into the
upper 20s and lower 30s. A model blend works very nicely for lows
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Forecast challenges are few through the period...with the only
potential for light precipitation coming Friday night with the
passage of another cold front.

High pressure will serve as the primary influence on weather
across central Indiana and the Ohio Valley through the weekend
with one brief exception focused on Friday evening and night.

With warm advection strengthening courtesy of southwest flow
ahead of the approaching cold front...expect mostly sunny skies
and a mild day by late November standards. Despite the presence of
a shallow inversion...it will also become increasingly breezy as
the day goes on with the cold front approaching from the northwest
and serving to further tighten the pressure gradient. As the
front moves into the region Friday evening...it will be
accompanied by a vort lobe aloft and some mid level deformation.
Moisture profiles overall are unimpressive and the bulk of the
forcing aloft will be off to the northeast...but the parameters
mentioned above should compensate and enable a few sprinkles or
very light rain showers to accompany the boundary Friday night.
The front and any light precipitation will be east of central
Indiana prior to daybreak Saturday.

High pressure will reestablish on Saturday as it dives south
through the central and southern Plains and expands east into the
Ohio Valley. A brief shot of cold advection on Saturday with
northwest flow will bring slightly cooler temperatures for the
weekend. Sunshine will be in abundance throughout the weekend with
great travel conditions expected across the region.

Temps...low level thermals strongly support bumping high
temperatures at or above MOS for Friday considering strong
boundary layer mixing and compressive warming ahead of the
boundary. Highs should warm into the low and mid 50s from east to
west. Highs over the weekend will be slightly cooler...generally
ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Utilized an overall model
blend from Friday night through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
Issued at 220 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Low confidence forecast after Monday night as models and ensembles
continued to struggle finding a common solution, which gets more
common the further into the cold season. So, will not make any
chances with small pops starting late Tuesday and Tuesday night
associated with complex frontal systems and a pair of upper systems.
Low confidence in temperatures and timing and coverage of showers is
low and goes hand in hand  with the low confidence in synoptic
temporal and spacial features.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 23/1800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1200 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Good confidence in VFR conditions with only mid and high clouds.

Winds will be southwest less than 10 knots.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ryan
NEAR TERM...Ryan
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK



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